Tour de France Tour de France Femmes 2023 (July 23rd-30th)

[Samu Cuenca]

While Kopecky did great, I feel this is more alike "in the land of the blind the one-eyed (wo)man is king", or in other words, the level of the women's peloton isn't there (yet).

Kopecky has never done anything like this before, and she beat some of the better climbers in the peloton. Sure there's more depth among the male riders, and it's not that long ago we saw Cavalli turn into a magnificent climber almost overnight, but this is still a pretty big performance. She's (allegedly) weighing 10-15 kg more than the riders she was up against.

 

[Red Rick]

Ideal climber weight for men is roughly 60-65kg not sure why it would be much lower for women. If you much lower the bike weight starts becoming a much bigger % of body weight very quickly, and you start doing absurd W/kg on flats. Vollering isn't exactly 50kg either.

 

[Volderke]

Kopecky has never done anything like this before, and she beat some of the better climbers in the peloton. Sure there's more depth among the male riders, and it's not that long ago we saw Cavalli turn into a magnificent climber almost overnight, but this is still a pretty big performance. She's (allegedly) weighing 10-15 kg more than the riders she was up against.

I wasn't meaning to say Kopecky wasn't impressive, but it's not normal that (most of) the women considered better climbers all performed worse than her.

 

[Axel Hangleck]

I like Vos too but she never was a superb climber. However I think you are right, Vos is the current Goat

Vos has benefitted from poor courses and the lack of climbing in major races. I'd rate Van Vleuten and PFP as higher than her.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

I wasn't meaning to say Kopecky wasn't impressive, but it's not normal that (most of) the women considered better climbers all performed worse than her.

Sure, there were riders who did worse than expected, which can probably be somewhat explained by the fact that climbs above 2000 metres is a a rarity in women's races. Still a performance like this is more like what you could expect of some of the climbers whose poor positioning skills and ability on the flat usely cost them on easier parcours.

 

[meat puppet]

I wasn't meaning to say Kopecky wasn't impressive, but it's not normal that (most of) the women considered better climbers all performed worse than her.

Since sustained climbing is mostly about w/kg, Kopecky simply must have had higher ratio than the riders who have outclimbed her before. I would assume she has just increased the watts part of the equation enough to be competitive.

 

[Red Rick]

Sure, there were riders who did worse than expected, which can probably be somewhat explained by the fact that climbs above 2000 metres is a a rarity in women's races. Still a performance like this is more like what you could expect of some of the climbers whose poor positioning skills and ability on the flat usely cost them on easier parcours.

Altitude would explain nothing about who gets dropped on Aspin. I don't know if Kopecky has ever seriously gone for a big mountain stage before, because career high form is a much more convincing explanation than looking intangibles that explain small differences but not outperforming expectations by minutes and minutes.

 

[awavey]

Last stage,stage 8 ITT Pau to Pau

mostly flat with a short climb in the middle

 

[awavey]

Kopecky has never done anything like this before, and she beat some of the better climbers in the peloton. Sure there's more depth among the male riders, and it's not that long ago we saw Cavalli turn into a magnificent climber almost overnight, but this is still a pretty big performance. She's (allegedly) weighing 10-15 kg more than the riders she was up against.

10-15kg I know Kopecky is visibly larger than some of size 0 pocket rockets, but that still seems a big difference for a pro cyclist

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Altitude would explain nothing about who gets dropped on Aspin. I don't know if Kopecky has ever seriously gone for a big mountain stage before, because career high form is a much more convincing explanation than looking intangibles that explain small differences but not outperforming expectations by minutes and minutes.

I assume Kopecky was also less tired than a lot of riders after the first 6 stages. We obviously don't know if she could have done the same, if there had been two mountain stages in a row like last year. But she's also lost weight ahead of this season, so that should of course also improve her perfomances on longer climbs, which we hadn't actually seen her on in 2023 before yesterday.

 

[awavey]

The question was mostly in relation to Illi Gardner, as she did a QOM (solo) not that long ago. It’s all on GCN’s YouTube:

View: https://youtu.be/_zOjrf_YmJY

That is not in Lanterne rouge’s graph, afaik.

Illi did it a month ago 50.58,11.7mph, So far of those riders who have posted to strava, Ashleigh Moolman Pasio was the fastest yesterday, 51.27 11.6mph, then it was Juliette Labouse and then Kasia, who was 20secods slower than Ashleigh, then they are in to 54mins territory, so those 3 were clearly much quicker.

But just call out that Ella Wyllie was 6th on that segment (yesterday) at 55.01, 10.8mph,and Manon did another GCN video with Ella doing a recon on the climb which is worth a watch

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvvEj0D_6iU

 

[awavey]

Altitude would explain nothing about who gets dropped on Aspin. I don't know if Kopecky has ever seriously gone for a big mountain stage before, because career high form is a much more convincing explanation than looking intangibles that explain small differences but not outperforming expectations by minutes and minutes.

there are so few big mountain stages in the calendar, she never really gets the opportunity to show if she has the form for them, and she could be punching in good results which get completely missed because AvV went on another solo excursion kind of thing, she seems to focus more on being the Spring classics style strong sprinter but not outright fast sprint rider.

 

[theyoungest]

Just curious as to why Kastelijn is annoying like Voeckler? I would know her better from cyclo-cross and what little I do know, she seems like a pretty likeable character. Dont think she has been prominent enough on the road for comparisons to Voeckler.

My point was it doesn't matter that she is a little annoying But she certainly is, look at her antics in the front groups she's been in. If she keeps on doing this no one will want to be in the break with her. And her over the top pain face when the camera is on her is very Voecklerian as well.

 

[theyoungest]

Apropos, will Demi stomp the others today too, or can someone else (like Reusser) take the stage?

In th GC, AVV needs a bit less than 2sec/km and Kopecky needs about 2sec/km on Niewiadoma to beat her. Could be doable, so the ultimate heartbreak for Kasia is possible.

Reusser is the huge favourite. Vollering probably 2nd favourite. Markus beat her and Van Vleuten by a minute in the Dutch nationals, but Vollering wasn't great there and Markus isn't great now.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Vos has benefitted from poor courses and the lack of climbing in major races. I'd rate Van Vleuten and PFP as higher than her.

2014-15 PFP maybe but longevity is the big factor against for her, she burned brightly but briefly before the injuries started to pile up.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Illi did it a month ago 50.58,11.7mph, So far of those riders who have posted to strava, Ashleigh Moolman Pasio was the fastest yesterday, 51.27 11.6mph, then it was Juliette Labouse and then Kasia, who was 20secods slower than Ashleigh, then they are in to 54mins territory, so those 3 were clearly much quicker.

But just call out that Ella Wyllie was 6th on that segment (yesterday) at 55.01, 10.8mph,and Manon did another GCN video with Ella doing a recon on the climb which is worth a watch

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvvEj0D_6iU

Speaking of recon, I think it was crazy that Labous said she hadn't done any ahead of the stage (apart from watching video).

 

[Netserk]

10-15kg I know Kopecky is visibly larger than some of size 0 pocket rockets, but that still seems a big difference for a pro cyclist

No bigger than the difference between Vingegaard and Van Aert.

 

[Red Rick]

No bigger than the difference between Vingegaard and Van Aert.

Relatively speaking, it's bigger, and the gap in climbing level between Vingegaard and Van Aert is also bigger.

Spoiler

Someone's gonna go hAuTaCaM in 3....2.....1.....

 

[awavey]

No bigger than the difference between Vingegaard and Van Aert.

ok it feels a big gap for a pro woman cyclist then, for instance if the pro cycling stats weights are to be believed, Lotte weighs the same as Pogacar, but shes only 4kg heavier than van Vleuten, who isnt that slow up hills.

 

[theyoungest]

ok it feels a big gap for a pro woman cyclist then, for instance if the pro cycling stats weights are to be believed, Lotte weighs the same as Pogacar, but shes only 4kg heavier than van Vleuten, who isnt that slow up hills.

Kopecky reportedly lost quite some weight for this year, and Van Vleuten used to be a non-climber as well. So it depends on when these weights were registered.

Vos has benefitted from poor courses and the lack of climbing in major races. I'd rate Van Vleuten and PFP as higher than her.

Vos was a great climber, for a little while. That wasn't just the poor courses, she was simply really good. I remember a Giro Donne where only Emma Pooley could drop her. But it took too much out of Vos to focus so much on endurance efforts, she's naturally more the explosive type.

 

[Netserk]

According to PCS (so take it with a big grain of salt):

66 - Kopecky
59 - Van Vleuten
58* - Vollering
49 - Niewiadoma

*PCS doesn't list the weight for Vollering, so the estimation is from Outside Magazine.

78 - Van Aert
66 - Pogi
61 - Evenepoel
60 - Vingegaard

 

[Izzyeviel]

I'm the same height & weight as Jonas.... I don't believe he's 60kg.

 

[staubsauger]

Ideal climber weight for men is roughly 60-65kg not sure why it would be much lower for women. If you much lower the bike weight starts becoming a much bigger % of body weight very quickly, and you start doing absurd W/kg on flats. Vollering isn't exactly 50kg either.

Pantani, Rasmussen & Co were way below 60kg. Even officially.

Rujano was 48kg, but small. That matches with Niewiadoma being below 50kg.

Just like Vollering is below 60kg as well.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Friday July 29 – Stage 7​

Medical bulletin

Maaike Coljé – Trauma to left wrist and elbow.

Liane Lippert – Trauma to left knee

Elena Hartmann – Nauseous.

Jury report

Anna van der Breggen (sport manager SD Worx ) – Violation of regulations regarding traffic in the race, filming the right front passenger. Fine of 200 Swiss francs.

Cecil Ludwig. Careless disposal of waste. Fine of 250 Swiss francs and 15 penalty points in the UCI classification.

In the context of the fight against technological fraud, 37 bicycles were checked. All bikes complied with UCI regulations.

 

[Izzyeviel]

Great S bomb from Iris