Tour de France Stage 4: Lorient - Mur de Bretagne - 172.5 km

[jsem94]

I'm going to and from work earlier so I can catch this stage tomorrow.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I'm so glad i have vacation now. Thank god for finishing my thesis in time

 

[c&cfan]

The problem with marking Gilbert is that he is so much better than everyone else, it barely matters. The only one who I think can beat him in a sprint is Rojas, but only if they take it slow on the steep kilometer. An early attack on the climb could work, but I think his team is strong enough to keep it together.

wrong wrong wrong. the problem with marking gilbert is that he is better at those finishes (uphill ones). it's "EASY" for a top rider (hilly specialist) to get a gap. however maintain it is different. it's much more difficult to create a gap in the flat against a full gas peloton\group. only canc has the power for that.that's why the best lost in the cobbles but the best won the ardennes.

 

[greenedge]

Gilbert fot the stage Evans in yellow and Vino to try attack. He could maybe get the jersey stage 8 as a breakaway will contest FTW. Does anyone think that Geraint could stay a few seconds down but climb into 2nd???. I can't imagine anyway Contador having the legs and he will need to attack far out. Fuglsang and Gerdermann shall latch the Shlecks onto his wheel then Gilbert will win. Could any others contend like ( our green jersey wearer )/ Voeckler???

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I don't see ac attacking. I don't see any of the gc men other then evans having a go.

Gilbert or Evans.

Hopefully it is a good stage.

This stage and stage 5 along the coast could be dangerous for the GC men. They will have to be attentive.

 

[c&cfan]

I don't see ac attacking. I don't see any of the gc men other then evans having a go.

Gilbert or Evans.

Hopefully it is a good stage.

This stage and stage 5 along the coast could be dangerous for the GC men. They will have to be attentive.

if Alberto does it it isn't to take time from anyone,

it is to make a statement!

 

[Publicus]

I don't see ac attacking. I don't see any of the gc men other then evans having a go.

Gilbert or Evans.

Hopefully it is a good stage.

This stage and stage 5 along the coast could be dangerous for the GC men. They will have to be attentive.

AC needs time on just about every GC candidate. Why wouldn't he attack? He certainly can't afford to cede more time to Cuddles. I think it will all depend on his legs. If he feels good, he'll go.

 

[hfer07]

everybody says Gilbert is called upon this stage to win it, due to his proven abilities during the classics, BUT I ask myself is he's that good after three demanding stages....anyways-he's still the favorite, although I foresee a deadly attack from Contador to "silence" the critics and to begin to worry the competition...

 

[Publicus]

everybody says Gilbert is called upon this stage to win it, due to his proven abilities during the classics, BUT I ask myself is he's that good after three demanding stages....anyways-he's still the favorite, although I foresee a deadly attack from Contador to "silence" the critics and to begin to worry the competition...

I've been wondering the same thing about Gilbert. There's a reason he's a one day specialist.

 

[William H]

I'd expect Contador and Schleck to go hard on the steep first kilometre, then see where they are.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

AC needs time on just about every GC candidate. Why wouldn't he attack? He certainly can't afford to cede more time to Cuddles. I think it will all depend on his legs. If he feels good, he'll go.

I just get the feeling this climb will be a dissapointment in regards to the GC men, I could be wrong tho.

 

[cocteau_ireland]

Breakaway?

 

[c&cfan]

Breakaway?

no.

bullet proof...i wish i was.

 

[thehog]

I'd expect Contador and Schleck to go hard on the steep first kilometre, then see where they are.

Hmmmmmmmm.......... Don't know.


It's going to be a made scramble 2km before the final climb for position.

 

[Moondance]

Obvious Gilbert win is once again obvious.

Gilbert's 'extra-terrestrial' team will keep the pace high enough that noone can (successfully) attack during the steep sections.

I wouldn't mind if Evans took the win. I'm certainly in the 'anyone-but-Phil' camp... Only problem I have with that is that if Evans proves strong enough to beat Gilbert at his own game here, on stage 4, I don't really think that bodes well for the rest of the Tour. This Tour, more so than most editions in recent memory, is weighted, extremely heavily towards the final 10 days, starting with stage 12 to Luz-Ardiden. No stage among the first 11 can win you the Tour: you can only lose it, Samu-style, in the opening 1 1/2 weeks. If Evans really was going to take it to Andy, equal him up to Beille and l'Alpe, and club him like a baby seal FTW in the Grenoble TT then he needs to be building his super-form now toward those stages, not peaking as we speak. The days, and the perception we still carry from those days, where a rider could own and be on top for 21 consecutive stages with not a single weak day is a relic from the EPO-era.

 

[cocteau_ireland]

I only put in the question mark cause it needed ten characters

 

[Publicus]

I just get the feeling this climb will be a dissapointment in regards to the GC men, I could be wrong tho.

If Evan has a go, that will spur the other GC candidates to move IMO.

 

[karlboss]

I'll put my money on hushovd. Good form (it appears for the first time in the season), smart enough to follow the right wheels, and when the gradient drops in the last kilometre he'll be the one with the most devastating sprint.

 

[cocteau_ireland]

The gc guys dont care about a stage win only time gaps. The sprinter teams wont work it as they're not gonna win All teams should try to put men up the road n let opl suffer

 

[Ferminal]

If Gilbert attacks on the steep part I have a feeling Evans will be able to come over the top. He needs a pacesetter, or someone to attack earlier on, so he can just follow, saving his legs for the last 800m or so. Even if he just followed the whole way, he should be able to take the sprint, probably a more risky way of doing things though.

 

[Frosty]

Interesting finish. Its steep for a kilometre but then flattens out a lot. If a team can get a couple of riders over together then one can sprint from 1k to 500 metres out while the other one shelters behind and then goes when the other guy cant take it anymore. So someone who goes all out on the climb and only gets 100 metres could get swallowed up quite easily.

Evans looks well set judging by stage 1 but with so many close to the yellow jersey its going to be difficult for him to watch everyone. Where there are several from the same team then someone can go hard at the bottom and Evans will have to either follow them and risk cracking or judge that they will blow up further up the climb. Evans' team-mates will probably be useful, setting a high pace at the bottom of the climb but Evans will probably have to go at some point unless BMC have someone who can get over the top and drop Hushovd and Millar. Should make for an interesting last few kilometres.

As mentioned by DT, the white jersey is an issue as well. I think someone ahead of Gesink will make it up in enough time to take it, EBH would be a fairly sure bet if fully fit but he cracked on stage 1. Not sure if Thomas and van Garderen will be right at the front.

Just a quick question - why is Wiggins supposedly not good on these stages? I realise he has changed a bit since being a pursuiter but that was about being fast over 3 and a bit minutes - i imagine the last few kms will take that time or longer, shouldnt he be good at that sort of distance?

Taaramae may well have a go here, be interesting to see if Roche is going well too. Rojas went well in the tour of switzerland, maybe a bit too steep for him, could still finish well in the points though.

 

[Frosty]

Breakaway?

Think its unlikely the breakaway will make it to the finish. OPL will be determined to do the same as on the first stage, BMC will want to bring it back for a chance to get Evans in yellow, Sky and HTC may also have a plan on how to get yellow too. Garmin wont necessarily mind the breakaway staying away as long as they dont take yellow but with so many people close on GC then Garmin cant allow the break to get too far ahead

 

[Dedelou]

This stage is about "contender" for short term wearing of the Yellow Jersey.. I expect the CG guys to be near , vigilant about each other but let a break go .. So look for some of the french fame seeking sluggers. The Voekler or
Cyril Gautier from Team Europcar or his teammate , Sébastien Turgot
, I am thinking Chavanel.. Any of the punchers who are allowed to go on a break or even one close enough to get the stage and the yellow jersey. Vino , of course attempting something and Gilbert. Cunego to make a statement and Vladimir Karpets to make up for his troubles today

 

[Frosty]

Yeah Chav's been a bit quiet so far this year. I reckon he might try for it in the more undulating stages from the weekend onwards. They play to his strengths and also someone's team might be too tired from defending yellow by that stage. The stages before then look like bunch sprints to me, stage 4 might be his best chance before stage 8.

 

[Dedelou]

Breakaway?

breakeway survivors for the stage while a bit behind the GC guys test each others.. The climb is not long enough to settle scores. AC surely knows that cancellara and Company can drive the pack to hell for the first part of the rise preventing attacks at the bottom and the GC contenters will run of territory before any can really try to make hard attacks. Of course like so many others predictions before , events may unfold that change the equation all together