Tour de France Stage 4: Lorient - Mur de Bretagne - 172.5 km

[Eyeballs Out]

Looks like very different weather for this stage - cool, damp and windy - very Fleche Wallone. Crashes inevitable in the last 20 km again

A more complicated finish for Gilbert to sort out than Saturday with the false flat last km - he'll need to get his timing right but he usually does. In fact this time last year I'd have said it was too steep for him, period. Not now though

 

[thehog]

Interesting finish. Its steep for a kilometre but then flattens out a lot. If a team can get a couple of riders over together then one can sprint from 1k to 500 metres out while the other one shelters behind and then goes when the other guy cant take it anymore. So someone who goes all out on the climb and only gets 100 metres could get swallowed up quite easily.

Evans looks well set judging by stage 1 but with so many close to the yellow jersey its going to be difficult for him to watch everyone. Where there are several from the same team then someone can go hard at the bottom and Evans will have to either follow them and risk cracking or judge that they will blow up further up the climb. Evans' team-mates will probably be useful, setting a high pace at the bottom of the climb but Evans will probably have to go at some point unless BMC have someone who can get over the top and drop Hushovd and Millar. Should make for an interesting last few kilometres.

Stage 1 was an anomaly bar Gilbert. 75% of the field was on the deck or soft pedaling in to the finish. Evans only finished 2nd because there was no one else.

 

[2wheels]

I'd love to see about 25 guys get up the road in a break, just to see the chasing dynamics play out between OPL and the other teams back in the peloton. The Cat. 4 hill just after the feed zone may be lively. . .hope so. Otherwise it'll be Gilbert on the top step for sure.

 

[rgmerk]

Working together in last km might be important...

If I'm reading the profile right, there's about 1km of false flat after the steep bit.

In that case, it might come down to how the riders split up on the ramp, and which combinations are willing to work together on the false to minimize or maximize any time gaps.

For instance, if Gilbert and a GC rider reach the false flat together and have a lead, presumably they'd work together to maximise the time gain, with Gilbert taking the stage, the GC rider getting the time gain.

Should be a fun stage.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If Evan has a go, that will spur the other GC candidates to move IMO.

true.
I still don't think it would be wise for him to take yellow tho. Unless they just intend to do no work and let a break (or sprinter teams) go. Which is quite possible I suppose.

@Ferminal
I think if glibert goes too early cadel can win.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If I'm reading the profile right, there's about 1km of false flat after the steep bit.

In that case, it might come down to how the riders split up on the ramp, and which combinations are willing to work together on the false to minimize or maximize any time gaps.

For instance, if Gilbert and a GC rider reach the false flat together and have a lead, presumably they'd work together to maximise the time gain, with Gilbert taking the stage, the GC rider getting the time gain.

Should be a fun stage.

there wont be any cooperation on a finish like this.
It is far too short and quick to organize anything.

Similar to the finished we got at Tirenno.

 

[LukeSchmid]

If BMC are trying to support Evans being in yellow at the end of the race why would they or Evans care about being in yellow at the end of this stage.
I think a good day is Evans gaining time on some of his rivals
A satisfactory day is nothing changes
A bad day is Evans losing time to rivals especially Contador
This is irrespective of whether or not he ends up in yellow at the end of the stage.

A more realistic point of view might be Evans should take yellow when he can because he has no chance of winning, but that would not be Evans' view.

 

[greenedge]

I think Evans is consistent enough to know when he wants something and is achieving that. I think it is important to gain time early but only if he can go better later. And he might not but Shleck and Contador would probably take him apart in some stages anyway if he was on top form.

Leukemans could go well, i am expecting something from Vaconsoleil as they have been aggresive and were close on stage 3. De Gendt would have been a good bet on some stages but is injured.
Astana have got a good team as well that can make it hard.
Rabo could send Gesink up to win as he likes the Classics and they have proved capable of splitting the peloton ( stage 3 ) and they have strong riders on the flats.

In this stage i expect the attacks to come from 15km out and a group of 40 riders to arrive at the end with maybe 5 or so fighting FTW. Basso and Sanchez have to be up there.

 

[Andre.J]

He is going to destroy the space time continuum on the final climb and take over the white jersey

Classic Post!!!!

 

[M Sport]

Evans will be desperate to win this one, it's probably his best chance for a stage win all tour.

On that basis I will pick Contador leading home Gilbert, and Evans closely behind.

 

[sultanofhyd]

breakeway survivors for the stage while a bit behind the GC guys test each others.. The climb is not long enough to settle scores. AC surely knows that cancellara and Company can drive the pack to hell for the first part of the rise preventing attacks at the bottom and the GC contenters will run of territory before any can really try to make hard attacks. Of course like so many others predictions before , events may unfold that change the equation all together

If Leopard do that then it's only good for Contador. Hellish pace from Leopard and an attack from Contador - not many riders in the world can follow that in such a short distance. Diesels will be dropped for good.

 

[thehog]

If Leopard do that then it's only good for Contador. Hellish pace from Leopard and an attack from Contador - not many riders in the world can follow that in such a short distance. Diesels will be dropped for good.

1km at 10% - only Contador & Gilbert can handle that type of incline for that long. It's the 2nd km which levels out to 3% which will allow Contador & Gilbert to drive further ahead. I think when it goes flat everyone else will be way too fragmented to make a difference to catch them.

In saying all that everyone and I mean everyone is will want to be at the front before the final two kms. And that means crashes.

 

[Publicus]

Looks like very different weather for this stage - cool, damp and windy - very Fleche Wallone. Crashes inevitable in the last 20 km again

A more complicated finish for Gilbert to sort out than Saturday with the false flat last km - he'll need to get his timing right but he usually does. In fact this time last year I'd have said it was too steep for him, period. Not now though

Your post caused me to check the weather report and you are right. Predicting rain and wind throughout the stage. This one could be VERY interesting before the finish.

EDIT: What Hog says above is true as well. High possibility of crashes in the lead up to the final climb.

 

[Kender]

go check out the finish on google streetview.

it's 2km in a straight line (except last few hundred meters or so) with 2 non undulating gradients and a very defined point where it changes.
Aslo the road is not very wide either so look out if any GC contenders get boxed in.

I'm not sure Gilbert would be able to hold off the likes of cadel in the second half, it's just nowhere near steep enough. I dont think they'll be able to gain enough time in the first half

 

[rides like a girl]

I would love to see some GC riders work and worry. Hope to see AC try to test things out, as others said just to get a few seconds. If for no other reason, to have Paul and Phil to STFU and quit making it seem AC has no chance to get time on AS or Radio Shack elderly trio.

Probably Gilbert FTW, but a girl can hope for AC, Vino, Samu or Rojas to attack the daylights out of this stage and go free FTW!

Evans will grind up ahead of others who don't want yellow this early!

 

[Kender]

vino will attack but like last stage he'll get caught and dropped. he's past his use by date

 

[rides like a girl]

If the weather is poor, could make it interesting. Hope all make it safely! Cycling has had enough sorrow! I want the road to decide the gap, not crashes and the rule book.

I know Vino is past his prime, but watching a couple stages from races in 2010 recently made me want to see him attack and succeed! He is fun to watch! I get tired of the markers and wheel suckers!

 

[patswana]

Boring choice but Gilbert for the win if the early breakaway is caught.

 

[Tuarts]

That last bit of false flat may be just too long for Evans to do a Tirreno-style victory from.

Thinking there'll be any co-operation on the false-flat - crazy, who is left will be going for the sprint. The gaps, if any will already have been created.

Gilbert will win if he does a Gilbert.

Contador could win if he does a Giro Stage 8

Rojas/Ventoso could win if a 20-30 man bunch crests the climb.

Of course, there's plenty of chances for a myriad of different opportunists to attack.

 

[H2OUUP2]

I would love to see some GC riders work and worry. Hope to see AC try to test things out, as others said just to get a few seconds. If for no other reason, to have Paul and Phil to STFU and quit making it seem AC has no chance to get time on AS or Radio Shack elderly trio.

Probably Gilbert FTW, but a girl can hope for AC, Vino, Samu or Rojas to attack the daylights out of this stage and go free FTW!

Evans will grind up ahead of others who don't want yellow this early!

What's up with Phil and Paul talking like that? It's a buck 42 for the best climber in the world and, as we know right now, there's only one guy who can stay close. Unless he's extremely tired from the Giro, I'm pretty sure AC is going to be fine. I'm sure next Thursday will shut a lot of people up.

 

[Eric8-A]

Cadel will surely look to win and pull on the yellow jersey. Although I would like to see Gilbert take another win. Before the Tour, I predicted that he'd wear yellow and win two stages in the first week. He's almost there, he needs one more stage for that prediction to become reality.

Rojas is also looking real good. Garmin's talking about trying to put him in yellow if Hishovd fails tomorrow. This doesn't seem right. What are his chances on a finish like this?

 

[metya77]

Will Contador attack?
Will Gilbert win again?
Will there by any GC casualties?

I think we will see an attack Conta and Vino
I want Vino won the Ryder

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

go check out the finish on google streetview.

it's 2km in a straight line (except last few hundred meters or so) with 2 non undulating gradients and a very defined point where it changes.
Aslo the road is not very wide either so look out if any GC contenders get boxed in.

I'm not sure Gilbert would be able to hold off the likes of cadel in the second half, it's just nowhere near steep enough. I dont think they'll be able to gain enough time in the first half

he'd be better off waiting to attack after the steep really, similar to his belgium nats attack.

 

[Barracuda]

Maybe one of the quads from the "shack" will show their hand ????

 

[Publicus]

Maybe one of the quads from the "shack" will show their hand ????

There's only one of the quad that has the explosiveness and that's Horner. The rest are diesels.

The climbmybike profile is a bit better than the one posted originally: