Tour de France Stage 4: Lorient - Mur de Bretagne - 172.5 km

[just some guy]

My predictions:

Kolobnev and/or Gerdemann to launch something speculative and ultimately futile about 10k before the finish.

Gilbert to eek out a buffer on the steep section and narrowly hold off Cunego, and a fast closing pair of Contador and Evans riding together on the flatter top section.

Evans to take the yellow jersey, but get sick in the next day or two courtesy of foul weather today.

As Timmy noted Evans is not a lean as the other GT guys

Wiggins would be more of a worry - talk about thin, maybe Andy will get a cold here hoping

 

[Bavarianrider]

Would the finish at Mende count as an uphill finish? What's the cut-off?

Mende is 3,1km @ 10% average. That's not an uphill finish anymore. that's a real climb

 

[Midnightfright]

As Timmy noted Evans is not a lean as the other GT guys

Wiggins would be more of a worry - talk about thin, maybe Andy will get a cold here hoping

He has got previous for misfortune during GTs though.

 

[Ferminal]

A pity there's not a few more obstacles earlier in the stage.

I guess that's what Stage 9 is for.

 

[Lanark]

A pity there's not a few more obstacles earlier in the stage.

I guess that's what Stage 9 is for.

Although it's not much, the profile of the last kilometers seems to suggest the road has a 7 or so % incline between kilometer 4 and 3. Not much, but someone with balls could try something there.

 

[just some guy]

Mende is 3,1km @ 10% average. That's not an uphill finish anymore. that's a real climb

On another note didnt you make some bet re BMC and the TTT.

 

[just some guy]

Although it's not much, the profile of the last kilometers seems to suggest the road has a 7 or so % incline between kilometer 4 and 3. Not much, but someone with balls could try something there.

Tommy V and Vino

Ps whatsup with Kern ?

 

[Midnightfright]

Tommy V and Vino

Ps whatsup with Kern ?

Maybe they think he has what it takes for a high GC placing so europcar are saving him

 

[TeoSheva]

Gilbert, Evans or Cancellara ftw and Voeckler and Contador also in top 5

Cancellara not even in the top 20

 

[Bavarianrider]

On another note didnt you make some bet re BMC and the TTT.

Indeed.
But no one told me what my new avatar should be so far.

 

[greenedge]

Publicus he does not wheelsuck. He wins races and latches onto wheels to rest himself. You could say the exact same for Gilbert on JVDB's wheel before 300 metres out launching himself up the Cauberg. Python i think Evans has good tactical sense otherwise he would not be 3rd so far already. Even if he does not win he shall get yellow. Kern will not get a good GC placing Europcar screwed up the TTT. Bavarianrider get one of Cuddles pls.

 

[LaFleur]

Taaramäe to have a go, looks pretty ****ed according to his blog after 2 days of bad luck.

 

[just some guy]

Indeed.
But no one told me what my new avatar should be so far.

who did you bet with ?

My vote a cadel photo - ACF you got one ?

 

[Bavarianrider]

who did you bet with ?

My vote a cadel photo - ACF you got one ?

Can't remeber who it was honestly. But as long as the guy doesn't show up feel free to choose a picture!

 

[just some guy]

Publicus he does not wheelsuck. He wins races and latches onto wheels to rest himself. You could say the exact same for Gilbert on JVDB's wheel before 300 metres out launching himself up the Cauberg. Python i think Evans has good tactical sense otherwise he would not be 3rd so far already. Even if he does not win he shall get yellow. Kern will not get a good GC placing Europcar screwed up the TTT. Bavarianrider get one of Cuddles pls.

Defensive riding or Wheelsucking

Cadel does it better than anyone in todays cycling - is it wrong no, know your battle grounds.

What he does now is attack at more appropriate times and does win more.

I suggest take the blinkers off.

I am a fan but seriously saying Cadel does not whellsuck is silly.

I also think having a Cadel type gc Rider makes the GTs more exciting to watch.

He goes hard early to gain time them trys to hold on, ie Giro 2010 - different riders then have time to catch up in the mountains.

this years Giro was a Little boring as people tried to beat Contador in the mountains and Contador attacked on random stages early in the Giro.

 

[Lexman]

Top 5

Gilbert
Evans
Vino
Contador
Leukemans

 

[Karl Max]

I think Evens is the big favourite for the yellow jersey today, the question is if he really wants the jersey this early in the race. For his overall chances it maybe better if he dont get the jersey. I put my money on Gilbert to win the stage but I doubt he will get the jersey.

I think this finish is to hard for Hushovd , but he may surprise. If he can do what many people here thinks he is best at "wheelsuck" then he maybe abel to defend the yellow jersey . But I dont think he is that good wheelsucker so he will probably loose it today.

 

[theyoungest]

I think Evens is the big favourite for the yellow jersey today, the question is if he really wants the jersey this early in the race. For his overall chances it maybe better if he dont get the jersey. I put my money on Gilbert to win the stage but I doubt he will get the jersey.

I think this finish is to hard for Hushovd , but he may surprise. If he can do what many people here thinks he is best at "wheelsuck" then he maybe abel to defend the yellow jersey . But I dont think he is that good wheelsucker so he will probably loose it today.

It's almost impossible for Cadel not to get the jersey today. Unless he concedes some voluntary seconds to a Schleck or a Sky guy.

 

[valentius borealis]

I can see Johnny Hoogerland attacking with about 3-4km to go.

 

[Jan the Man]

1. Gilbert;
2. Cunego;
3. Evans;
4. EBH;
5. Roche

I think that Gilbert will win by 5 seconds over a group of about 10 riders including the others in the top 5 the two Schlecks and Contador. I think Basso, Gesink, VDB 2 and Wiggins will be the favourites to struggle (if any).

 

[boomcie]

What up everyone?

GC guys will obviously be in the mix today, but probably Gilbert will take a few seconds on the rest again.

What happened to Contador is really a blessing for this Tour. No more riding like pussies, let's spice things up.

 

[theyoungest]

What up everyone?

GC guys will obviously be in the mix today, but probably Gilbert will take a few seconds on the rest again.

What happened to Contador is really a blessing for this Tour. No more riding like pussies, let's spice things up.

Riding like a *****, that's generally not Contador's style.

 

[rmacek]

So, it is raining today.. What can we expect? More crashes?

 

[Bavarianrider]

So, it is raining today.. What can we expect? More crashes?

Rain?
I can smell a neutralized stage

 

[lancaster]

I can see Johnny Hoogerland attacking with about 3-4km to go.

hoogerland to attack, then we really will have seen it all.