Tour de France Stage 4: Lorient - Mur de Bretagne - 172.5 km

[TeoSheva]

Gilbert, than Evans and maybe Contador.

 

[mewmewmew13]

Most likely it will be hard to stop Gilbert. or maybe there will be some interloper feeling great and will grab the stage.
Evans will probably be wearing yellow though, at the end of the day.

 

[Animal]

The long, strength sapping profile of that, which hits hard at first, and the just drags might not suit the explosive finish of Gilbert.

Evans could be in with a chance. He seems very motivated.

 

[gibbells]

Cant really see beyond gilbert for this one. He is really good at the short steep ones just like the mur de huy when he won fleche wallonne. With regards to the favourites i do think contador will give a dig because of the circumstances he is in but he will be well marshalled by the other GC guys right up to the luz ardiden stage.

 

[luckyboy]

The long, strength sapping profile of that, which hits hard at first, and the just drags might not suit the explosive finish of Gilbert.

I thought that looking at where the steepest part is, but maybe he'll go early. If he leads up that part I can't see anyone that'll outkick him on the easier finish.

 

[xmoonx]

Gilbert may be the strongest for this stage but I think Evans is going to be all over it. It suits him and a great opportunity to try and slip away and put some time on the Schlecks, Contador before the big mountains...

 

[jilbiker]

I think if he does attack tomorrow it will be just to test himself and get himself back into shape, if any time gaps appear it will be 10-15s max. As I said there are many high mountain stages and if he is in top form he can take a minute out of everyone on every mountain stage.

I agree. It will just be to test if the vibrations are good. "Vibrations" a favorite word of AC. I would definitely recommend that he tests the vibrations and warms up. Forget the time gaps etc. I really can't believe folks are panicking about 1.48 time gap. I really think AS is not in the AC class, the difference between them if AS is in top flight is more like 4-5mins perhaps more. Forget last year, AS had other things on his mind, issues with Vino (another leadership tussle) and finding another team.

I am glad this crash happened. My concern for AC was motivation. Unfortunately AS is not much of a motivation like Ullrich wasn't much of a motivation for LA. AC seems to need to external motivation and he channels that into his biking unlike some folks who channel that into the mouth.

 

[sometriguy]

Will Contador attack? 100 percent yes, he will go before gilbert
Will Gilbert win again? Yes, he will bridge to conta and they will work together to the finish on the "false flat"
Will there by any GC casualties? Wiggans and basso

 

[Carlo Algatrensig]

I think this stage is not as well suited to Gilbert as many people seem to think. The final climb is steep to begin with but then flattens out at the top which is the opposite way to what would best suit Gilbert in my opinion.

For that reason I would think that this is probably a stage that Rojas or maybe even Boassen Hagen would be my picks for the win.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Gesink also has a poor track record on these type of finishes in GT's. He has done well on them as well in other races, even won. But that's not the same as in a GT.
So I hope he doesn't lose too much time to direct opponents (everybody except Andy and Contador)

 

[Tuarts]

So many battles, looking forward to the stage. Gilbert of course but what will happen if the GC guys want to do something, aka Contador? Should be interesting certainly, the time gaps created shouldnt be more than a minute, hoping Basso finds some legs, he hasn't looked good at all.

 

[H2OUUP2]

Cant really see beyond gilbert for this one. He is really good at the short steep ones just like the mur de huy when he won fleche wallonne. With regards to the favourites i do think contador will give a dig because of the circumstances he is in but he will be well marshalled by the other GC guys right up to the luz ardiden stage.

I agree. I don't think AC is going anywhere till late next week. AC has to ride error less free until then, and he'll be fine.
Hard to pick anyone but Gilbert for this stage. I could see Chavanel having a shot.

 

[Anonymous]

Could be one for a breakaway to succeed. I'd have thought that only Omega would chase it down.....and if they don't fancy it, the break could stay clear.

FWIW, David miller almost won an identical stage a few years ago, only to be caught by the pack with 1km to go.

I still weep at how much money I would have won that day :-(

 

[thehog]

I agree. I don't think AC is going anywhere till late next week. AC has to ride error less free until then, and he'll be fine.
Hard to pick anyone but Gilbert for this stage. I could see Chavanel having a shot.

If there was 20s on the line I could see Contador going for it but whoever wins will probably only get a gap of 3-5 seconds. Thus not worth the effort.

 

[Publicus]

You always take time on your rivals when you have an opportunity, even if it is only 3-5 seconds.

 

[Lanark]

You always take time on your rivals when you have an opportunity, even if it is only 3-5 seconds.

Agree. Contador and his team need a moral boost at this point. Nothing is lost, but nothing has gone great for them either. Contador dancing away from the Schleck's tomorrow would be great for him and his team, even if the time gain is minimal. That's assuming he has the legs to do it...

 

[thehog]

Agree. Contador and his team need a moral boost at this point. Nothing is lost, but nothing has gone great for them either. Contador dancing away from the Schleck's tomorrow would be great for him and his team, even if the time gain is minimal. That's assuming he has the legs to do it...

It would create a nice scramble for the line. It's not just the Shlecks who have time to gain/lose.

In saying that Canc will put the Shlecks on his wheel and guide them to safety.

Wiggo and Levi have a lot to worry about. They can't accelerate like Contador can.

Still don't think much will happen.

 

[Greenflame]

I think it will be hard for Contador to take time here, but he'll try. My bet for the stage is Evans though, he looked really strong saturday and is motivated to take yellow, so he'll definitely be up there. Gilbert will be tough to beat, but I think Evans can take it if he goes at the right time.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Wiggo and Levi have a lot to worry about. They can't accelerate like Contador can.

Still don't think much will happen.

More riders than Levi and Wiggans cannot match his acceleration, but I understand your point.

This will be an exciting stage, but I agree, it will not matter in the grand scheme. Single digit gaps if everyone gets to the climb together in one piece.

Bummed I cannot watch it live tomorrow

 

[Midnightfright]

I have a sneaky feeling for kolobnev to do something do I'm picking him for the win

 

[Andre.J]

I'm always honest. And I won't cry until after the time trial, when it's been decided. I will be in Salamanca by then, so I can cry together with my Spanish boyfriend and family-in-law. Or not, if everything works out fine for me and Alberto.

Forget your Spanish boyfriend; you must come to Belgium. Anyway your tears may be of joy at the end. That being said:

day 1. Gilbert in National Shirt
day 2. Gilbert in Yellow Shirt
day 3. Gilbert in Green Shirt
day 4. Gilbert in Polka Dot
day 5. Gilbert in Green Shirt
day 6. ?????? ? ??? ????

Andre

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Gilbert to win, Evans to finish in yellow. Break stands no chance with all the big teams motivated to close it down. Unless of course something strange happens...

 

[Anonymous]

Forget your Spanish boyfriend; you must come to Belgium. Anyway your tears may be of joy at the end. That being said:

day 1. Gilbert in National Shirt
day 2. Gilbert in Yellow Shirt
day 3. Gilbert in Green Shirt
day 4. Gilbert in Polka Dot
day 5. Gilbert in Green Shirt
day 6. ?????? ? ??? ????

Andre

He is going to destroy the space time continuum on the final climb and take over the white jersey

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Which reminds me Gesink could take the white jersey on this stage and keep it until the end of the tour

 

[maxmartin]

basso look already fully cooked, hope he can do something in the tour, but doubt that will happen

So many battles, looking forward to the stage. Gilbert of course but what will happen if the GC guys want to do something, aka Contador? Should be interesting certainly, the time gaps created shouldnt be more than a minute, hoping Basso finds some legs, he hasn't looked good at all.