Tondó vs. Serpa in ITTs:
Giro 2010, prologue: Tondó 31st, Serpa 122nd
Giro 2010, Plan de Corones: Tondó 96th, Serpa 37th.
Tondó in ITTs in the last few years:
2010
6th, Paris-Nice prologue
62nd, Volta a Catalunya prologue
11th, Vuelta a España 2010 TT
2009
1st, Ruta del Sol prologue
16th, Vuelta a Castilla y León TT
79th, Volta a Catalunya prologue
9th, nationals
3rd, Vuelta a Madrid TT
7th, Vuelta a Burgos TT
32nd & 41st, Vuelta a España TTs
2008
10th, Vuelta a Asturias TT
14th, nationals
16th, Vuelta a Madrid TT
2007
6th, Tour de San Luís TT
7th, Volta ao Santarem TT
1st, Trofeu Joaquim Agostinho TT
2nd & 2nd, Volta a Portugal TTs
Now Serpa:
2010
7th, Tour de San Luís TT
13th, Settimana Lombarda prologue
10th, Giro del Trentino TT
122nd, 37th & 79th, Giro d'Italia TTs
2009
11th, Tour de San Luís TT
8th & 34th, Giro d'Italia TTs (the 8th to Sestri Levante is the big achievement here because that was a very tough ITT and about the only real standout TT result that makes me agree with you that he's better against the clock than Tondó)
1st, Vuelta a Venezuela TT
21st, Worlds
2008
38th, Tirreno-Adriatico TT
104th, 60th & 66th, Giro d'Italia TTs
1st, Vuelta a Venezuela TT
1st, Clasico Banfoandes TT
2007
3rd, Vuelta al Tachíra TT
10th, Vuelta a Chile TT
17th, Clasica a Alcobendas TT
10th, Vuelta a Venezuela TT
43rd, Worlds
Really, I don't see that Tondó "doesn't stand a chance". He may not beat Serpa, but he has a chance, this isn't Cancellara we're talking here.