Tour de Suisse 2024, June 9 - 16

[CyclistAbi]

@SHAD0W93

Obviously there is some bias involved, different fans to try to push their favourite a bit higher. I can't blame you for that. Objectively that doesn't change much.

 

[SHAD0W93]

@SHAD0W93

Obviously there is some bias involved, different fans to try to push their favourite a bit higher. I can't blame you for that. Objectively that doesn't change much.

You’re right, objectively there’s a clear winner in regards to who’s the superior rider in one week major stage races.
One has a 57.1% to win overall if they start, the other 47.6%.
One has a 71% chance to podium if they start, the other 52%.
One has an 100% to top 10, the other 71%.
One has a 157% chance to win a stage, the other a 104%.
One has beat second, third, and tenth by a larger margin than the other.

So please explain how the subjective bias overrules the objective facts.

 

[Oldermanish]

@Oldermanish

We can speculate further, or we can just wait for around 14 days or so. Then all the mentioned cyclists and teams will get a fair shot on demonstrating, on how they stack against each other. Pogi, for example, he will likely max out his team ASAP, so lets see on who will be left, or add something more to it.

Unless Tadej needs to control the race early, which he's only done on his own in recent events; the first week may be more of a free for all. I'm hoping that some riders have been holding back but, like you say it's all guessing.
I do think UAE has the depth to go into the 3rd week in good shape. If Bora has their crew together they will too. Not sure what JV brings to the game but that's what they're all about now. Mystery...

 

[tobydawq]

@SHAD0W93

Obviously there is some bias involved, different fans to try to push their favourite a bit higher. I can't blame you for that. Objectively that doesn't change much.

Yes, whereas you are entirely devoid of such bias...

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

You’re right, objectively there’s a clear winner in regards to who’s the superior rider in one week major stage races.
One has a 57.1% to win overall if they start, the other 47.6%.
One has a 71% chance to podium if they start, the other 52%.
One has an 100% to top 10, the other 71%.
One has a 157% chance to win a stage, the other a 104%.
One has beat second, third, and tenth by a larger margin than the other.

So please explain how the subjective bias overrules the objective facts.

Assuming that past performance is an indicator of the future is a choice based on bias. Nothing objective at all in presenting such data as a grounds for prediction.

Do you believe that Chris Froome has a 40% chance of winning the Tour?

And your calculations would fail any school Maths test, I am afraid. Please explain what a 157% chance of achieving something means.

 

[tobydawq]

Assuming that past performance is an indicator of the future is a choice based on bias. Nothing objective at all in presenting such data as a grounds for prediction.

Do you believe that Chris Froome has a 40% chance of winning the Tour?

I don't think he was serious... (I would think that he knows that a probability of 157% is at least 40 percentage points too high).

 

[CyclistAbi]

@SHAD0W93

Some shady numbers again. All in all if you and @tobydawq have issues in admitting Rogla is currently ahead, when it comes to week long stage racing, then you two just aren't being objective. Don't worry about it too much, you two aren't the only ones.

@Oldermanish

Considering his main two doms are peaking in form, Pogi will put that to work ASAP. If he succeeds and gains a hefty advantage, then the battle for overall is likely over, week one. Otherwise and in my opinion Pogi will struggle and likely won't win Tour 2024. We'll see.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Yes the guy who barely won a Dauphine against Jorgensen and Derrick Gee , and who has a 10th place and a DNF in his other stage races this year, is the current gold standard of stage racing. Great expert analysise

 

[CyclistAbi]

Yes the guy who barely won a Dauphine against Jorgensen and Derrick Gee , and who has a 10th place and a DNF in his other stage races this year, is the current gold standard of stage racing. Great expert analysise

So in this thread Jorgenson is nobody, in Sepp thread, on the other hand, he is the Tour 2024 top 5 contender. Rodríguez is nobody too? Remco just had bad form, he totally wouldn't smoke Yates and Almeida at Dauphiné ... Rogla only did it because his form was really bad and he got dropped.

Talking about golden standards.

 

[Berniece]

So in this thread Jorgenson is nobody, in Sepp thread, on the other hand, he is the Tour 2024 top 5 contender. Rodríguez is nobody too? Remco just had bad form, he totally wouldn't smoke Yates and Almeida at Dauphiné ... Rogla only did it because his form was really bad and he got dropped.

Talking about golden standards.

It’s just that this year Roglic didn’t show in any 1-week stage race that he’s the best of the peloton. While Pogacar and Vingegaard did.

 

[Potomac]

It’s just that this year Roglic didn’t show in any 1-week stage race that he’s the best of the peloton. While Pogacar and Vingegaard did.

That's a good summary.
I am a big Roglic fan (except when Jorgenson was winning back time on that final climb) but I'm not blind to the current state of affairs. From what I've seen this last year and a half, it would a pleasant surprise if Roglic won the TdF.

 

[CyclistAbi]

It’s just that this year Roglic didn’t show in any 1-week stage race that he’s the best of the peloton. While Pogacar and Vingegaard did.

Didn't he?

P.S. He was head and shoulders above Jonas and Remco in an ITT stage and won Dauphiné against a strong field. Now the argument here seem to be that Dauphiné field was weak. For people claiming that, what would be the chances of Yates winning Dauphiné this year, after the ITT stage.

 

[tobydawq]

Didn't he?

P.S. He was head and shoulders above Jonas and Remco in an ITT stage and won Dauphiné against a strong field. Now the argument here seem to be that Dauphiné field was weak. For people claiming that, what would be the chances of Yates winning Dauphiné this year, after the ITT stage.

I think the argument was that he cracked on the final stage.

Which was not to preserve energy for the Tour, lol.

 

[Potomac]

We can speculate further, or we can just wait for around 14 days or so. Then all the mentioned cyclists and teams will get a fair shot on demonstrating, on how they stack against each other.....

Yes, please do so.
You needn't post anything until after the TdF is finished.

 

[Berniece]

Didn't he?

P.S. He was head and shoulders above Jonas and Remco in an ITT stage and won Dauphiné against a strong field. Now the argument here seem to be that Dauphiné field was weak. For people claiming that, what would be the chances of Yates winning Dauphiné this year, after the ITT stage.

No he didn’t. Wow he was head and shoulders above someone that crashed in the TT… Of whom he then lost in the dauphine in a TT…

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Yes, please do so.
You needn't post anything until after the TdF is finished.

He's made such a promise before without keeping it.

 

[Oldermanish]

Yes the guy who barely won a Dauphine against Jorgensen and Derrick Gee , and who has a 10th place and a DNF in his other stage races this year, is the current gold standard of stage racing. Great expert analysise

The "barely won" and "won in the last 50 meters in an uphill sprint" have two things in common. You know what they are and are hard pressed to admit it. It's real.
Whether he has prepared and raced with just the Tour in mind is known only by Primoz and his coaching staff. You could be correct in implying maybe we've seen his best. Questioning another's analysis based on wins isn't a winning argument, though.

 

[SHAD0W93]

@SHAD0W93

Some shady numbers again. All in all if you and @tobydawq have issues in admitting Rogla is currently ahead, when it comes to week long stage racing, then you two just aren't being objective. Don't worry about it too much, you two aren't the only ones.

No shady numbers at all. One rider has won more of the week stage races he’s competed in, while winning more stages, and also has had a bigger gap.

And your calculations would fail any school Maths test, I am afraid. Please explain what a 157% chance of achieving something means.

They’ve won more stages compared to races start, so more likely to win multiple stages of the race when they do start it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar doesn't need very steep climbs to make the difference. Overall, the Galibier is a difficult climb. Pogacar, actually the strongest and best in shape, has to attack in the Galibier. Because he has to make the (important) difference during the first half of the Tour. Later, Pogacar risks to fade a bit especially the last week. So, my prediction. UAE will try to destroy most domestiques and even a few subtop-riders during the first part of the Galibier. Pogacar will attack quite EARLY in the climb, in order to make the difference. He will try to gain almost a minute to be able to resist his last opponents during the descent and last flat section before the finish.

I think Yates and Almeida will absolutely destroy the peleton in the second half of Galibier and hardly anyone except Pogi will follow. Thanks to the brutal pacing Pogi won't even have to attack early, 2-3 km from the top will do.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

No shady numbers at all. One rider has won more of the week stage races he’s competed in, while winning more stages, and also has had a bigger gap.


They’ve won more stages compared to races start, so more likely to win multiple stages of the race when they do start it.

that's really not the way that probability works, even if you do accept past record as a predictor of future results.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I think the argument was that he cracked on the final stage.

Which was not to preserve energy for the Tour, lol.

There were a lot of arguments being made, for me to use a word cracked, that would imply he lost the overall, plus Rogla had both Vlasov and Remco a couple of seconds behind.

Yes, please do so.
You needn't post anything until after the TdF is finished.

He's made such a promise before without keeping it.

I tired something like that in the past, it failed. Sorry guys.

No he didn’t. Wow he was head and shoulders above someone that crashed in the TT… Of whom he then lost in the dauphine in a TT…

So Jonas did the best ITT performance in history a few months back and was peachy during his whole 2024 season campaign, obviously till the crash. Rogla beating him convincingly in such ITT hence means nothing much. As for Remco and Dauphiné ITT, this in my opinion was a rather good benchmarks and i don't tend to agree Rogla did bad. Likely this was the hardest ITT, for him, at least till the end of the Tour. Hard in the terms of being or not being favourable to his characteristics.

I think Yates and Almeida will absolutely destroy the peleton in the second half of Galibier and hardly anyone except Pogi will follow. Thanks to the brutal pacing Pogi won't even have to attack early, 2-3 km from the top will do.

To be honest kind of hoping on that and if Yates and Almeida won't be up to it then in my opinion Vlasov and Hindley should take over. As UAE won't necessarily make Pogi feel Giro in his legs, Bora will.

 

[tobydawq]

There were a lot of arguments being made, for me to use a word cracked, that would imply he lost the overall, plus Rogla had both Vlasov and Remco a couple of seconds behind.

No it wouldn't.

 

[CyclistAbi]

@tobydawq

It was a successful long range defence, Rogla is getting there, conceptually.

 

[Berniece]

So Jonas did the best ITT performance in history a few months back and was peachy during his whole 2024 season campaign, obviously till the crash. Rogla beating him convincingly in such ITT hence means nothing much. As for Remco and Dauphiné ITT, this in my opinion was a rather good benchmarks and i don't tend to agree Rogla did bad. Likely this was the hardest ITT, for him, at least till the end of the Tour. Hard in the terms of being or not being favourable to his characteristics.

Do you mean the TDF ITT last year? That's not comparable at all. You said that Roglic is the best 1-week stage racer and somehow he showed that this year. I'm just saying that if there's one year that Roglic didn't show he's still the best 1-week stage racer, it's obviously this year.

Failed at Paris-Nice
Crashed at Itzulia before he could show that he could win it
Barely won Dauphine against Jorgenson

Sorry, but Vingegaard and Pogacar are just better at 1-week stage races, as well as GT's.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

@tobydawq

It was a successful long range defence, Rogla is getting there, conceptually.

Long range defence, epic! One has to hope Rogla doesn't choose too long range during the Tour!