Tour Down Under Stage 2: Lobethal - Stirling 148km

[Ferminal]

I suggest looking at this other profile, much more descriptive:

http://www.cyclingprofiles.com.au/HTM/TDU/TDU_1202.htm

There is one more lap of the final circuit than in previous years.

Previous Results

2011
1. Matthews
2. Greipel
3. Goss

2010
1. Cardoso
2. Valverde
3. Evans

2009
1. Davis
2. Brown
3. Elmiger

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Greipel has to be the favorite again. I don't know who's out because of the crash but Goss, Hagen, Matthews, Valverde and Petacchi could all win as well.
I suspect Haas will do well also.

 

[theyoungest]

This was a real easy win for Matthews last year. Greipel is definitely stronger now, don't know about Goss (have yet to notice him TBH), EBH could challenge as well.

 

[maltiv]

EBH, this stage is pretty much perfect for him.

 

[El Pistolero]

Hopefully Greipel again, but he has a slightly weakened team now. I heard Kenny de Hummel and Feuillu caused the crash? My two "favorite" riders causing a crash, what a surprise

Vacansoleil and their rider policy... I'll never understand. Van Hummel is a dangerous sprinter and now he'll be in every WT race... Uhh.

Petacchi almost caused Greipel to crash into some other cyclist on his right. Not a gentleman sprinter anymore now you're slow huh?

 

[will10]

I suggest looking at this other profile, much more descriptive:

http://www.cyclingprofiles.com.au/HTM/TDU/TDU_1202.htm

Make any profile scale small enough and you can make the TDU look like Liege

Goss my pick for tomorrow.

 

[Bye Bye Bicycle]

Goss is totally out of form. He was invisible at the Bay Crits, at the national championships, at the CCC, and now today. No way he is going to shine tomorrow.

 

[Ferminal]

Make any profile scale small enough and you can make the TDU look like Liege

Goss my pick for tomorrow.

It's more the climb stats which you simply can't determine from averaged profiles. There are no steep parts but it's a tough circuit.

 

[Jamsque]

I hope EBH gets the green light to ride for himself on this stage.

 

[theyoungest]

It's more the climb stats which you simply can't determine from averaged profiles. There are no steep parts but it's a tough circuit.

It's a tough circuit, but in the modern peloton, not tough enough to prevent a bunch finish. Can't see an extra lap changing that.

 

[auscyclefan94]

It will be a much smaller bunch sprint. Hot weather, extra circuit, sore bodies, fatigue from todays super hot day and more teams wanting to make racing hard will result in a smaller group.

Greipel won't win considering he is "climbing like a brick".

 

[Richeypen]

It will be a much smaller bunch sprint. Hot weather, extra circuit, sore bodies, fatigue from todays super hot day and more teams wanting to make racing hard will result in a smaller group.

Greipel won't win considering he is "climbing like a brick".

Says who?


.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Says who?


.

Sorry, I got confused with Henderson but even so I do not believe he will feature in the finale considering the weight he seems to have put on.

 

[El Pistolero]

Sorry, I got confused with Henderson but even so I do not believe he will feature in the finale considering the weight he seems to have put on.

Greipel is a better climber than sprinters like Farrar and Cavendish... This will no doubt be a big bunch sprint and without crashes Greipel will be up in the mix.

 

[Kvinto]

I'm more inclined to think that an additional circuit won't change things much but it's an additional difficulty (maybe some brainless attacks) that definitely hits the legs in the end. The finish is a pretty long section of a false flat, according to MMR it's 4km-3.4%, then 1.7km slightly downhill and finally 1.9km-3.2%:

http://www.mapmyride.com/routes/view/64744612/?open_ive_done=1&new_route=1

As the previous editions show, it's enough to make the sprint not quite 'bunch' and i'm expecting some mix between the guys like EBH/Matthews and Gerrans/Valverde. Tbh i don't believe in Greipel, i think he can be somewhere between 3th and 6th but if he wins that stage an additional lap is introduced in vain.

 

[Tuarts]

EBH
Greipel
Pettachi

Matthews to threaten for Rabobank. Haussler another, SVH a big smokey (if uninjured)

 

[Tuarts]

I'm more inclined to think that an additional circuit won't change things much but it's an additional difficulty (maybe some brainless attacks) that definitely hits the legs in the end. The finish is a pretty long section of a false flat, according to MMR it's 4km-3.4%, then 1.7km slightly downhill and finally 1.9km-3.2%:

http://www.mapmyride.com/routes/view/64744612/?open_ive_done=1&new_route=1

As the previous editions show, it's enough to make the sprint not quite 'bunch' and i'm expecting some mix between the guys like EBH/Matthews and Gerrans/Valverde. Tbh i don't believe in Greipel, i think he can be somewhere between 3th and 6th but if he wins that stage an additional lap is introduced in vain.

I'd trust the cyclingprofiles' maps over MMR.

 

[Kvinto]

I'd trust the cyclingprofiles' maps over MMR.

it's pretty much the same, only more detailed (i suppose they use the same map):

http://www.cyclingprofiles.com.au/HTM/TDU/TDU_1202.htm (if that's what you mean)

4.1% 1.88km
3.9% 1.80km
3.9% 1.96km

the percentages are slightly bigger...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

EBH
Greipel
Pettachi

Matthews to threaten for Rabobank. Haussler another, SVH a big smokey (if uninjured)

Isn't Haussler out? If he is, I'm looking forward to see what Haas can do in his role.

 

[Ferminal]

It's a tough circuit, but in the modern peloton, not tough enough to prevent a bunch finish. Can't see an extra lap changing that.

Never suggested otherwise, but it might only be 30-40 instead of 70 or so.

 

[classicomano]

Lets go Bling!

 

[Ferminal]

Forecast:

Isolated showers and the chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Winds southerly averaging 15 to 30 km/h increasing to 20 to 35 km/h around midday. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 22 to 30.

http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/forecasts/mount-lofty-ranges.shtml

 

[Tuarts]

Isn't Haussler out? If he is, I'm looking forward to see what Haas can do in his role.

No idea, I wrote this before I read through all the Stage 1 thread lol.

Can Sabatini sprint up a hill? Knew he was a sprinter but was surprised with his 4th today.

 

[Tuarts]

Forecast:

Isolated showers and the chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Winds southerly averaging 15 to 30 km/h increasing to 20 to 35 km/h around midday. Overnight temperatures falling to between 16 and 19 with daytime temperatures reaching 22 to 30.

http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/forecasts/mount-lofty-ranges.shtml

More echelons and then a rain-affected sprint? Being uphill will lower the speed but will still be dangerous, especially on the descents during the run in.

 

[Kwibus]

Hopefully Greipel again, but he has a slightly weakened team now. I heard Kenny de Hummel and Feuillu caused the crash? My two "favorite" riders causing a crash, what a surprise

Vacansoleil and their rider policy... I'll never understand. Van Hummel is a dangerous sprinter and now he'll be in every WT race... Uhh.

Petacchi almost caused Greipel to crash into some other cyclist on his right. Not a gentleman sprinter anymore now you're slow huh?

http://www.cyclingfever.com/video.html?detp=view&video_idd=NTE2Nw==

Judge for yourself who's fault it is. I don't think you can blame van Hummel for this.