Tour of Flanders Predictions

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Aug 16, 2011
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If a breakaway survives
1. Chavanel
2. Devolder or leukemans
3. Langeveld

If a select group of the favorites go's away
1. Canc
2. Boonen
3. Pozzato
4. Vanmarcke

If it ends in a sprint
1. Boonen
2. Sagan
3. Freire
4. Canc
5. Degenkolb
 
Mar 27, 2011
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boomcie said:
Leukemans?

For Sunday:
Leukemans > GVA, EBH, Terpstra, Devolder, Westra, Gilbert, Langeveld...

I would say on par with them. He has not showed himself at the moment.

Devolder has/ 2 time winner so i think he may be co-leader along with Bjorn.
Terpstra has only just really broken through cobbles wise and Langveld/ EBH are both talented youngsters. I would put them all on par with each other.
 
Mar 27, 2011
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CasperVg said:
Since no team but OPQST seems strong enough to lead the peleton, should they refuse to ride I'm pretty sure a break (probably not the BOTD but a later break with semi-favourites) will make it, espessially because Quickstep seems to have gambled on those breaks in every cobbled race now (Terpstra (who wins), Chavanel (who was reeled in eventually), etc.).

My prediction
1. Langeveld
2. Breschel
3. Chavanel
4. Leukemans
5. Hoste
-- (end of the break)
6. Boonen
7. Cancellara
8. Flecha
9. Ballan
10. Vanmarcke

No team would let that group get up the road. Langveld would also not beat Breschel in a sprint. BMC will also make sure they are either present chasing ( like last year ) or they will seek to get someone in the break- learning from last year.
 
Feb 15, 2011
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CasperVg said:
My prediction
1. Langeveld
2. Breschel
3. Chavanel
4. Leukemans
5. Hoste
-- (end of the break)

That would be a very weird breakaway. It's way too strong IMO. If those 5 were to hit the road, surely others would follow.

I'm also wondering whether the other teams are going to let Chavanel get away again this year.

A winning break would probably look more like the one in PR last year, or a sneaky Devolder-like escape.
 
Feb 15, 2011
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greenedge said:
I would say on par with them. He has not showed himself at the moment.

Devolder has/ 2 time winner so i think he may be co-leader along with Bjorn.
Terpstra has only just really broken through cobbles wise and Langveld/ EBH are both talented youngsters. I would put them all on par with each other.

Disagree.

Look at the last editions of the RVV. Leukemans is always up there. For him, these are virtually the only races of the year and he knows how to perfectly prepare himself for them.

Devolder is ok, but not strong enough. His TT performances have been mediocre, a solid indicator. I'll await the TT in De Panne today, but am not very hopeful for him.

Terpstra has been a good cobbled rider for a while already. He just snatched his first victory in Waregem because of good team tactics. He could have done that a few years ago as well. I'm sure.

EBH will not finish ahead of Leukemans either. Unless they're in a big group and are contesting the sprint.

Langeveld is a bit of a question-mark. Most def not a solid bet like Leukemans.
 
Aug 29, 2009
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Apparently Leukemans is not at 100%, he has some problems with his achilles'heel.

&quot said:
Leukemans in Het Laatste Nieuws / 29.03.2012:[/I]"]"Ik liep al een paar keer langs bij de osteopaat. De pijn is niet toegenomen, maar nog wel aanwezig. Dat baart me zorgen. Rust is de beste remedie, zeggen ze. [...] Dus leg ik ijs en neem ontstekingsremmers. Hes it balanceren op een slappe koord, want ikweet hoe fragiel zo'n achillespees is. Ik hoop dat ik ze niet helemaal aan flarden rijd."

but generally I agree to boomcie, Leukemans looks real strong at the moment, and the new parcours is very well suited to his abilities
 
Mar 27, 2011
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What i meant was Terpstra broke through to the scene of being a contender.

I know that Bjorn is a talented rider- he seems well suited for all Classics ( i love him in the Ardennes ). With the EBH part i meant developing wise sry.

I still think Devolder is looking better than he has in the last 2 years so he could go well ( they have 3 cards to play ).

Langveld did quite well last year and might benefit from the race being made harder.
 
Aug 5, 2009
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Der Effe said:
1 Cancellara
2 Breschel
3 Boonen
4 Sagan
5 Chavanel

It's hard to disagree that those are the five riders to beat. There will always be a performance by someone that will be unexpected but I think the winner will come form those five riders. Can't see the winner coming from BMC or Garmin or Sky.
 
Oct 28, 2010
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If Leukemans is not at 100% it's a huge blow for Vacansoleil. Devolder has not shown signs of form yet, unless you consider several Barredo-like moves as an indication of good shape. I agree that today's TT will show a lot, this is the best indication of his form but in my opinion he just isn't as good as Leukemans.
 
Jun 1, 2011
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Cancellara
Boonen
Chavanel

These three in any given order.

It would be cool to see Chavanel win. I expect to see him up the road in attack mode.

Boonen is at his best in years and with the aid of Chavanel could be unstoppable.

Cancellara could use help up the road, but there is no Chavanel for RSN. Rast is the possible exception, but I think the Roubaix favors him more the cobbled climbs of Flanders. I would certainly change things if Cancellara had a teammate to charge for him in the final 15 Ks or up the road over the last climbs of the Hotond twice the Paterberg.

For a solo repeat of 2010, Cancellara could strike on the Hotond after making a selection on the first time up the Paterberg. I think later would be better for him, but if the opportunity arises earlier he will take it.

I really hoping to see solo efforts instead of marking each other in a group in the last 15Ks, that will of course favor Boonen. Chavanel needs to be well on his own with a marking chase from behind. It could happen.

If Cancellara finds himself in chasing group, I don't think he will drag the others to the finish this time.
 
Oct 28, 2010
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In fact Oude Kwaremont is a proper Roubaix sector, only slightly uphill

Oude_Kwarmount_Nasty_Cobbles-5237-1024x682.jpg


This route is good for Roubaix guys
 
Oct 28, 2010
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boomcie said:
I'm keeping an excel document with all the predictions. It's pretty insightful.

Temp excel: HERE

wow, could you please add Breschel, Ballan, Oss and Hoste to fill my prediction up?

PS: of course if Leukemans is fit, no way he gonna miss the top-10, but i believe him that he is not.


EDIT: Thank you!
 
Oct 25, 2009
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Boonen, with help from Chav. Or Chav with help from Boonen. Cance might be the strongest but I fear his team is pretty weak and he won't be able to mark both Boonen and Chav.
 
Mar 11, 2010
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Its tough to call here.

I really can't see Cancellara NOT attacking at some point and if he's significantly stronger than Boonen then he should win.

If Boonen has the legs he follows and takes it in the sprint - easy.

Can't see anyone else getting enough tactical rope to change this scenario much.

Chavanel? Would be good to see but I don't think hes strong enough to go toe to toe with the big two and it sounds like the new course is selective enough to make it more a battle of stength over cunning.

On balance - Boonen - he's going well enough to contain Cancellara and his tactical plan is simple.
 
Sep 19, 2010
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Pippo to win, Haussler to do surprisingly well, Gorka Izagirre to make the top 40, Stijn Devolder not to make the top 40, Boonen to beat Cancellara.
 

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