Track star to GT hero

[thehog]

British mother, Australian father. Lived in Belgium until he was two.

I'm sure he made the most of the opportunites for road-racing as a toddler

Nice try again. But you avoided the question.

You're simply just making stuff up.

Wiggins track star to Tour winner is a statistical and physical phenomenon. One the world has never seen before and probably will never see again.

And clean?

 

[Joachim]

No, you said it is a statistical near impossibility

Present your calculations, or withdraw that claim.

 

[deValtos]

I discounted Berzin by my earlier post because he was part of Ferrari's Gewiss team. He was the infamous 1-2-3.

Ekimov never got near Top 20 in a GT (and of course from the school of Lance/Ferrari).

Did Boardman ever finish a GT?

Bombridge hasn't even ridden one.

McGee Top 8 at the Giro so not a bad transformation.

My statistics are sound. Yours not so. It's only when one adds emotion into their science does one make errors.

Why discount dopers ? If we just look at clean cyclists in the modern era we're going to have an incredibly small sample size, which is not something you should draw conclusions from.

I don't know why you said my statistics are not sound. I didn't give any

Do you genuinely believe this transition by Wiggins is unexplainable as you put it earlier and statistically almost impossible? Or are you exaggerating to make a point and just think its unlikely ?

 

[Joachim]

Here you are hog, let me lend you a hand

 

[thehog]

Here you are hog, let me lend you a hand

Why get personal? In the face of losing the argument it a poor cover.

You're just making things up again.

 

[Joachim]

Why get personal? In the face of losing the argument it a poor cover.

You're just making things up again.

I'm sorry, I was just trying to save you the googling. If you are offended by the book title, I'll remove the link.

But, don't let that distract you from presenting your calculations...

 

[Captain Sensible]

Nice try again. But you avoided the question.

You're simply just making stuff up.

Wiggins track star to Tour winner is a statistical and physical phenomenon. One the world has never seen before and probably will never see again.

And clean?

Wiggins won the tour yes, but the other English riders who won the yellow jersey in the tour ie Tommy Simpson
Sean Yates
Chris Boardman
all raced track as amateur,s so it's not just Wiggins that has come from the track , yes out of those 3 only Simpson had the all round talent to win the tour.

 

[thehog]

Why discount dopers ? If we just look at clean cyclists in the modern era we're going to have an incredibly small sample size, which is not something you should draw conclusions from.

I don't know why you said my statistics are not sound. I didn't give any

Do you genuinely believe this transition by Wiggins is unexplainable as you put it earlier and statistically almost impossible? Or are you exaggerating to make a point and just think its unlikely ?

It doesn't matter. We can include dopers. And we can include the pre-EPO era. Which means if Wiggins IS clean even more remarkable.

Not only does he beat the EPO era trajectory of track to GT riders but also the era from 1960 to 1992! (just prior to EPO).

That's some statistical phenomena going on right there.

My guess is he used dope and move from 4000m on the trace to Grand Tour Tour Winner.

Hard to explain it any other way when it a hasn't happened for 50 years prior. (I'm talking Tour de France here).

 

[Joachim]

No, you said it is a statistical near impossibility

Present your calculations, or withdraw that claim.

I see you haven't presented your calculations yet.

Why would that be...

 

[thehog]

I'm sorry, I was just trying to save you the googling. If you are offended by the book title, I'll remove the link.

But, don't let that distract you from presenting your calculations...

If you have a counter argument then present it. If not then you're not as smart as pretend to be. Posting pictures of Dummies Guides doesn't convince me of your argument. Only makes me think you're covering for lack of real evidence or that you don't understand the concept of critical reasoning. Your choice.

 

[thehog]

Wiggins won the tour yes, but the other English riders who won the yellow jersey in the tour ie Tommy Simpson
Sean Yates
Chris Boardman
all raced track as amateur,s so it's not just Wiggins that has come from the track , yes out of those 3 only Simpson had the all round talent to win the tour.

Simpson won the Tour? Got close.

I don't really know Simpson's track background. I'll look it up. But that was a looooong time ago...

 

[Joachim]

If you have a counter argument then present it. If not then you're not as smart as pretend to be. Posting pictures of Dummies Guides doesn't convince me of your argument. Only makes me think you're covering for lack of real evidence or that you don't understand the concept of critical reasoning. Your choice.

I'd like you to present the calculations behind your claim that it is a statistical near impossibility.

I don't need a counter-argument, because without the statistics you haven't made an argument to counter.

Let's have them statistics, Hoggie-boy....

 

[Captain Sensible]

Simpson won the Tour? Got close.

I don't really know Simpson's track background. I'll look it up. But that was a looooong time ago...

I was trying to say that out of those 3 only Simpson had the talent to win the tour, I know he never , and when you look into his track background you will find out that he often raced Barry Hoban another rider who raced track then went on to race the tour wining 8 stages .

 

[thehog]

I'd like you to present the calculations behind your claim that it is a statistical near impossibility.

I don't need a counter-argument, because without the statistics you haven't made an argument to counter.

Let's have them statistics, Hoggie-boy....

Nice try Ace. But first you come onto this thread and tell us all that this has been discussed before early in the Sky thread. Even though you're only 200 old posts you can remember those discussions

I presented my arguments earlier in the thread. You need to do some heavy lifting and go read it and respond. Instead you just posted pictures and told everyone that I'm making stuff up. That theme continued when I called you out on the British Track Program and then you posted a picture of a Dummies Guide.

You see. You get personal. That's your style. You haven't bothered to read this thread and respond reasonably. You've just pointed fingers and mocked.

That's all you do. Your arguments don't amount to anything.

Your choice. Go back to the start of the thread and begin again. This time put your critical thinking cap on and present a compelling argument to counter what I present. Because to this point you have not. Just posted mocking photographs, looking for attention.

 

[peterst6906]

...The data says its not possible. ...

That's not really a conclusion that you can draw from the historical evidence.

Just because it hasn't been done, doesn't mean it's not possible or even, not likely.

You'd also need to look at the setup of cycling in the different countries and how junior development programs work.

I know the Australian system fairly well and I think it's the type of development that is very likely to occur in Australia, because juniors are encouraged to try multiple disciplines and keep with them for quite a while.

Many of the Australian pro riders for example have spent a long time on the track: Renshaw, Brown, Mathews, Hayman....(and many more).

Even for other road riders, a lack of evidence of their transition could result from an early cross from track to road, simply because the rewards in a road career are much greater than a track career (except for very few like Hoy, Meares, Pendleton, etc.).

Outside the Oz setup though, I'm not sure how other countries have their dev program setup. It may be that they run different road v track programs for different riders without much cross over, so there aren't the same type of opportunities for riders to succeed on the track and then progress to the road after that.

 

[Joachim]

Yes, I really shouldn't have posted that link because now you are using it as a deflection away from your inability to back up your claims. It is a non-issue as I removed it straight away.

So, back to where we were. You haven't presented a coherent argument, you've made a claim. That claim was that what Wiggins has achieved is a 'statistically near-impossibility'.

That was your claim. Now it is time to show us the statistics and how you have interpreted them, because without that you have no argument and it just looks like you are bulls******g, which I hope you are not.

So.....let's see the calculations...

It's not an unreasonable request, and surely you'll take the opportunity to show us that it isn't just BS

 

[ebandit]

statistics

hoggie i tried to get my head around your statement.............wiggo's

advancement from track star to gt winner is statistically impossible

but even statistics for dummies proved too clever for me

perhaps you could make it easier for me.................does your hogwash

beat reasoned argument? thanks!

 

[deValtos]

Hard to explain it any other way when it a hasn't happened for 50 years prior. (I'm talking Tour de France here).

So the crux of the issue essentially is because it hasn't happened 50 years prior it is thus unexplainable and almost impossible. It's debatable but I don't think that's a very strong argument. There's a ton of weird circumstances that have not happened but you wouldn't call impossible.

For example the French have not won a TDF since Hinault (27 years ago) and about 60 (-ish, i'm not entirely sure) enter each year. Statistically this is absurd !! But no one would say it's unexplainable if one won next year for obvious reasons.

How many track medalists enter every year ? (I'm pretty sure it's a lot less than 60).

Also you can't honestly think the Giro and Tour are that different that you can only look at performances from just the Tour.

 

[TheGame]

I discounted Berzin by my earlier post because he was part of Ferrari's Gewiss team. He was the infamous 1-2-3.

Ekimov never got near Top 20 in a GT (and of course from the school of Lance/Ferrari).

Did Boardman ever finish a GT?

Bombridge hasn't even ridden one.

McGee Top 8 at the Giro so not a bad transformation.

My statistics are sound. Yours not so. It's only when one adds emotion into their science does one make errors.

So you discount anyone who has doped as being an example. So thats all Track champions who moved to the road from 1900 to 2006 (When according the UCI doping stopped).

So basically, your question is, how many riders since 2006 have made the transition from track champion to grand tour contender.

Which you know, as well as I, only has one answer.

 

[del1962]

TheHog trolling again, yawn,

 

[Joachim]

Which you know, as well as I, only has one answer.

..but it is 'statistically near-impossible'

I'm sure the Hog is busy beavering away preparing the statistics to present to us all.

It'll look terribly bad if he doesn't.

 

[ferryman]

I've had my fears for this thread from OP until now. And they have been realised. I'm going to ask some of the other Mods to have a look and see what they think. If it was down to me, I would close it.

In the mean time stay civil folks.

 

[del1962]

I've had my fears for this thread from OP until now. And they have been realised. I'm going to ask some of the other Mods to have a look and see what they think. If it was down to me, I would close it.

In the mean time stay civil folks.

Why not close it anyway, we have plenty of threads on wiggins. It is just theHog trolling at you know that fine well, but then he gets special protection

 

[Joachim]

To not close it would disprove the accusation of mod favoritism, and allow hog to refute your accusations of trolling by providing the statistical proof of his statistical claim. To deny him this opportunity by closing the thread would be unfair to him.

 

[ferryman]

To not close it would disprove the accusation of mod favoritism, and allow hog to refute your accusations of trolling by providing the statistical proof of his statistical claim. To deny him this opportunity by closing the thread would be unfair to him.

Very clever. Take it to the appropriate forum if you want to have a dig a Mods.