Track star to GT hero

[ferryman]

Why not close it anyway, we have plenty of threads on wiggins. It is just theHog trolling at you know that fine well, but then he gets special protection

Yes, we Mods provide special protection for our favourites (Hoggy, get that 50K in the mail and you are immune). Take it to the Mods forum Del if you feel there are any posters getting special treatment.

 

[Joachim]

Very clever. Take it to the appropriate forum if you want to have a dig a Mods.

How on earth do you manage to read a dig at the mods from that?

 

[thehog]

I think the thread is interesting. I learnt a lot. I learnt that Wiggins is more an anomly to the rule of Tour winners. There's not been a track rider turned Tour winner ever. JA and FC yes but they weren't really pure track riders who turned themselves into GT winners. They rode track because they were good Tour riders.

Berzin yes. Pursuit rider turned Giro winner but he did ride openly with Ferrari on Gewiss before the 50% rule. But still he transformed himself.

Eki to a degree but I think along with Berzin if the Wall didn't collapse they'd be happy training for the Pursuit in a Russian Sports Camp. Pro Cycling gave them the income after the collapse of Communism.

Boardman, McGee and to a lesser degree O'Grady certainly had success on the Road but never to the level of threatening for a GT win.

Moser was a good track rider but did use EPO and blood doped but he did make the transformation successfully. But never won a Tour.

The reason I created the thread was not to troll. But I kept hearing the "big engine" theory about Wiggins as a way of explaining why he became such a good road rider.

Problem is I don't buy it. And based on the historic statistics of cycling he's the first Tour winner who came from a track upbringing. Ever.

I thinks thats very interesting. The reason I posted in the Clinic that I can't see any rationale "clean" way that he achieved this from 2008 onwards. Especially for 2009 but a Tour win and so convincingly in 2012 was beyond words.

I know many mock me. Its standard par for the course. I expect it.

But you have to admit the opposition that was received from such a thread you can tell there's not really an argument to counter the rise of track specialist to GT winner. There's no historical evidence to back it up thats for sure. Thus it just makes people angry when they can't explain the change in Wiggins.

Its an observation. And its an opinion. An interesting one I believe.

 

[avanti]

Mark Cavendish - two gold WC track medals plus a GT winner on points.

Taylor Phinney - two WC gold track medals, two WC silvers (one ITT and one TTT), plus a GT stage win.

 

[thehog]

Mark Cavendish - two gold WC track medals plus a GT winner on points.

Taylor Phinney - two WC gold track medals, two WC silvers (one ITT and one TTT), plus a GT stage win.

Madison to points winner. Like O'Grady. That's not a stretch. Cav and O'Grady aren't winning GT's. Cav certainly not!

Phinney is a wait and see. He openly states he won't be a GT rider. More one day. So no transformation required.

 

[MatParker117]

Prior to Wiggins I think the most successful transition from track to road recently was Cavendish. The Madison has produced more stars on the road than the IP recently.

 

[movingtarget]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UCI_Track_Cycling_World_Championships_–_Men's_individual_pursuit

http://www.bikeraceinfo.com/olympics/olympic-pursuit.html

I'm interested in the phenomenon of a Track Rider becoming a successful GT cyclist.

It's explained on these forums has a natural and normal progression. "Big engine" etc.

But when I look through the history or 4000m Pursuit riders at World a championships and Olympics I don't see that progression.

The only names that stand out are Wiggins, McGee and to a lesser extent O'Grady.

Doesn't look a natural or normal progression at all. It actually looks like a "off the charts" phenomena.

It's unexplainable.

With only the teams pursuit remaining at the Olympics we might not be able to track the occurrence for the future but based on past history it's certainly a strange and odd occurrence.

I do note Bombridge on the list but he has yet to prove himself over anything else other than a prologue.

O'Grady was never a climber and his Paris-Roubiax win is very suspect. Even with doping even he couldn't climb let alone ITT (Cofidis/Gaumont/Riis/CSC).

In my mind Wiggins progression from track to GT winner is nothing short of extraordinary.

I don't know track that well so forgive me if they're are other names which have performed similar feats.

Not sure why O'Grady would be thrown in the mix. I would of thought he would have been one of the more believable ones making the transition. He can sprint and pursuit but never had form in grand tours and hates the mountains. His form leading into Roubaix was excellent an he was considered to be a chance for the win and on the day the unusual heat, being an Aussie, and the marking of Cancellara worked beautifully for the team. He used his pursuit skills to win the race. Quite a few good riders win Roubaix late in their careers for the first time because it's a race for a tough, experienced rider. Apart from battling for the Green jersey in the Tour and sometimes winning a stage, O'Grady's career does not seem to have the peaks and troughs of many other riders and he spent many of his years as a domestique in the classics and Tour. As for Bobridge, huge talent on the track but not convinced yet that he will amount to much on the road same as the Meyer brothers but they are all early in the careers so far.

 

[Joachim]

there's not really an argument to counter the rise of track specialist to GT winner.

Are you sure that is what you meant to say?

Read it back to yourself.

There's no historical evidence to back it up thats for sure.

Nor any statistical evidence from the look of it.

Thus it just makes people angry when they can't explain the change in Wiggins.

Angry? Who's angry? I haven't seen any anger, although you do seem a bit...rattled.


Now, let's have those calculations please. You've kept everyone waiting long enough.

 

[thehog]

Not sure why O'Grady would be thrown in the mix. I would of thought he would have been one of the more believable ones making the transition. He can sprint and pursuit but never had form in grand tours and hates the mountains. His form leading into Roubaix was excellent an he was considered to be a chance for the win and on the day the unusual heat, being an Aussie, and the marking of Cancellara worked beautifully for the team. He used his pursuit skills to win the race. Quite a few good riders win Roubaix late in their careers for the first time because it's a race for a tough, experienced rider. Apart from battling for the Green jersey in the Tour and sometimes winning a stage, O'Grady's career does not seem to have the peaks and troughs of many other riders and he spent many of his years as a domestique in the classics and Tour. As for Bobridge, huge talent on the track but not convinced yet that he will amount to much on the road same as the Meyer brothers but they are all early in the careers so far.

All true.

You could be right about Bobridge and the Meyer brothers. Given time to develop it might just show that from a track program to road is a more obvious stepping stone.

I can see those guys being in the mould of O'Grady. Tough doms or one day riders.

 

[taiwan]

First time this topic was discussed, the quality of posting was waaaaaay better, just saying.

 

[movingtarget]

Prior to Wiggins I think the most successful transition from track to road recently was Cavendish. The Madison has produced more stars on the road than the IP recently.

Well it makes sense. The madison is a much longer race and you have to be able to sprint and pursuit. Madison teams usually have the strong man and a sprinter who can accumulate the sprint points so Wiggins and Cavendish made the perfect combination. Six Day races usually follow the same combination, one is stronger and one is a much better sprinter.

 

[richtea]

I cannot get my head around these arguments that suggest that while it is perfectly believable for a stage racer to successfully turn their hands to the track, the reverse is impossible. Almost as if by default, all cyclists beginning their careers on the track are athletically disadvantaging themselves via some process that is conveniently left implicit and unexplained.

 

[Joachim]

You'll be able to get your head round it when thehog comes up with his calculations to back up his assertion that it is "statistically near impossible"

(but between you and me, he won't because he can't. The whole thread is founded on BS)

 

[richtea]

There are huge issues with self selecting samples in this problem in any case: those riders with the greatest aptitude for stage racing are those with greatest probability of selecting to start their career on the road (except where those opportunities are unavailable). There is unlikely to be a realistic way of addressing this in a statistical argument, and any reasoning will be particularly weak without an underpinning biological theory.

 

[thehog]

There are huge issues with self selecting samples in this problem in any case: those riders with the greatest aptitude for stage racing are those with greatest probability of selecting to start their career on the road (except where those opportunities are unavailable). There is unlikely to be a realistic way of addressing this in a statistical argument, and any reasoning will be particularly weak without an underpinning biological theory.

Not really. If it was biological possible and easy to do then it would have occurred more often.

Are you suggesting Wiggins is a biological anomaly?

 

[skatingchris]

How about looking at it the other way round.

How many GT winners would have done well on the track if that was the better program with most money etc in their country. It seems to be assumed that some of the better road riders would do well at the hour record after all...

 

[Barnaby]

I think it goes like this:

thehog: "I've had some money stolen!"

Respondent: "So how do we know you've had some money stolen?"

thehog: "Because as I can't find it, I consider it statistically likely"

Respondent: "How much is missing?"

thehog: "Its not up to me to tell you, you must prove how much I had."


Simply really, and I'm just a dummy.

 

[ElChingon]

The thread includes a valid question, facts and real data. Is that too good a premiss so there is a need to close it? The question is also very specific so its unique.

Hog, please post the data gathered in the initial post to catch people's interest. It may not pan out or it may but is still a question for the Clinic to ponder and discuss. I can't say the statistics are true but then again who is the forum statistician that can generate the correct probability?

 

[simo1733]

How do you think riders like Lemond,Hinault,Indurain,Ullrich etc would have done had they specialised at individual pursuit before concentrating on road?

 

[DirtyWorks]

How do you think riders like Lemond,Hinault, etc would have done had they specialised at individual pursuit before concentrating on road?

Destroyed it. That's what they did when they showed up pretty much any race. During Lemond and Hinault's era I'm pretty sure there was more money on the road, so not much reason to even bother with the track.

Going back to Altig and Coppi, it seems there was more money to be made on the road even then. So, Coppi and Altig both are killing it on the track then do the same on the road immediately. Please correct me or clarify if anyone can.

Bottom line: if Wiggo had gone from track medalist to near grand tour glory, then 2012 would have been one of many years of total domination. But no. Nothing like an Altig, Lemond, Hinault, Coppi performance history to back up 2012's results.

 

[Dave_1]

Anyone in the last 40 years?

Moser, yes. Agreed. Blood doper though. One of the first to blood dope mind you.

Hog, was it doping when he did it? I thought in 1984 it was allowed. Apologies if am wrong..but memory is it was legal at some point in early 1980s

 

[Joachim]

I've just worked out the statistical probability of somebody winning a Tour, with sideburns, and then being knighted.

It's a statistical near-impossibility!!

Doping?

 

[Don't be late Pedro]

Moser was a good track rider but did use EPO and blood doped but he did make the transformation successfully. But never won a Tour.

He won the Giro. Is there evidence that he blood doped for the Giro? This has come up before and a general conclusion iirc was that logistically it was pretty unlikely. Also, EPO? He won the Giro in 84 so that would be in advance of any early EPO adopters I have heard of by a few years.

 

[Mellow Velo]

This thread is still up and running?
Unbelievable.

Luke Durbridge (huge first pro road season)
Cameron Meyer (climbing well and contesting the GC in T-A)
Jack Bobridge
Michael Mørkøv (all over the Giro like a rash)
Jesse Sergent
Sam Bewley

Now joined by Rohan Dennis (5th in his first WT stage race)
Michael Hepburn
Lasse Norman Hansen (dark Danish horse for the future)

I mean the track: wtf?
UK, Oz, Denmark. Possibly add Russia, NZ and Belgium and that's it.

That's one heck of a lot of pursuit riders who will or have made very successful road transitions, from a very small rider pool.

Total troll of a thread.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

Destroyed it. That's what they did when they showed up pretty much any race. During Lemond and Hinault's era I'm pretty sure there was more money on the road, so not much reason to even bother with the track.

Guessing what the roadies might do on the track is very subjective, but based on the 1994 Tour prologue, where Boardman put 15 seconds into Mig over 7k, one might reasonably conclude that at his best, Boardman would have mullered anyone other than Obree in an IP.

(Although not related to the track, Boardman also only conceded ~30s to Mig in the Atlanta ITT in 1996, which maybe gives some insight into what was possible clean during the EPO era when everyone was fully rested and recovered.)

Boardman's "final hour" also provides a good benchmark vs Merckx in terms on riding flat out for an hour on the track.