last year TDF UCI points:
WANTY - 1490
IPT - 1335
JAYCO - 930
UNO-X - 800
DSM - 780
COFIDIS - 580
ARKEA - 505
ASTANA - 425
my expectation this year:
WANTY - Girmai is not in the same form as last year - so number of points will be much lower. (-)
IPT - no Gee, and Ackerman shape is unclear - number of points significantly reduce. (-)
JAYCO - having O'connor means more GC points for the team. (+)
UNO-X - they bring their best riders, and they must take more points then last year. (+)
PICNIC - they need the points badly, so they will try hard, and Onley has a good year. (+)
COFIDIS - they need points badly, and they on home soil (+)
ARKEA - they are definitely going to score more with Vauequlin (+)
ASTANA - they are in position now when they actually can score more points in other races. (-)
so my prediction is that UNO-X , and WANTY are going to narrow their gaps to promotion.
other teams will be less affected the same way, since their gap too far for promotion.