UCI Points system

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last year TDF UCI points:
WANTY - 1490
IPT - 1335
JAYCO - 930
UNO-X - 800
DSM - 780
COFIDIS - 580
ARKEA - 505
ASTANA - 425

my expectation this year:
WANTY - Girmai is not in the same form as last year - so number of points will be much lower. (-)
IPT - no Gee, and Ackerman shape is unclear - number of points significantly reduce. (-)
JAYCO - having O'connor means more GC points for the team. (+)
UNO-X - they bring their best riders, and they must take more points then last year. (+)
PICNIC - they need the points badly, so they will try hard, and Onley has a good year. (+)
COFIDIS - they need points badly, and they on home soil (+)
ARKEA - they are definitely going to score more with Vauequlin (+)
ASTANA - they are in position now when they actually can score more points in other races. (-)
so my prediction is that UNO-X , and WANTY are going to narrow their gaps to promotion.
other teams will be less affected the same way, since their gap too far for promotion.
INTERMARCHE 385 - i was right about it. Girmai form dropped, and he also crushed. the team is now 18 place.
IPT 320 - i was right about it. without Gee, the team can't score.
JAYCO 860 - i was wrong, although O'connor won a stage.
UNO-X 1315 - i was right, and Abrahmson won a stage! what an amazing viking team they are!
PICNIC 1990 - i was right, Onley was amazing!
COFIDIS 155 - i was wrong - this team was terrible, Coquard took out the green jersey and DNF, and their bikes were stollen.
ARKEA 1030 - was right - Vaquelin had a great TDF, but it didn't save the team from relegation.
XDS 790 - was wrong - ASTANA are like a suicide squad, don't know what they are taking, but it's something good.

so in total 5/8 for me - not great i guess.
 
INTERMARCHE 385 - i was right about it. Girmai form dropped, and he also crushed. the team is now 18 place.
IPT 320 - i was right about it. without Gee, the team can't score.
JAYCO 860 - i was wrong, although O'connor won a stage.
UNO-X 1315 - i was right, and Abrahmson won a stage! what an amazing viking team they are!
PICNIC 1990 - i was right, Onley was amazing!
COFIDIS 155 - i was wrong - this team was terrible, Coquard took out the green jersey and DNF, and their bikes were stollen.
ARKEA 1030 - was right - Vaquelin had a great TDF, but it didn't save the team from relegation.
XDS 790 - was wrong - ASTANA are like a suicide squad, don't know what they are taking, but it's something good.

so in total 5/8 for me - not great i guess.

Some great calls there, but given that you expected 1000+ from Jayco (thanks to GC), how high did you have O'Connor when you predicted it?
Top 5? Bold.
 
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But O'Connor won a stage. And being in top 10, he probably wouldn't win, so it's kinda the same.
Jayco scored 860 and O’Connor was in the top 10 before the 20th stage. When dropping to 11th they lost 40 points, so without that mishap they would only lack 101 points to score 1000+, which Groenewegen would’ve sorted with 2x 5th instead of being 14, 15 and 16th in the three sprints he did. Jayco 1000+ was not unrealistic in my eyes.
 
pubchart
 
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