Unexpected outcomes for yellow...value bet?

[karlboss]

A friend of mine asked me who to put a value bet on, she hates betting on favourites, and knows I'm really into this stuff.

What I expect to happen, and I think there'll be a few of you with me. Contador will not lose much (any) time in either ITT, not lose much (any) time in the TTT, and never be beaten by a contender up a hill (conservative prediction).

Looking on form its hard to see anyone else capable of keeping up, Menchov and Evans are likely to lose a little uphill not gain enough in the ITT and lose time in the TTT, opposite with schlecklet, schlek, and sastre. The odds on these guys are too short anyway.

However I think with the lack of tough mountain top finishes there is scope for someone to breakaway take 10 minutes and still hold a little time at the end.

Could it happen? Which stage? and who will it be?

Contador is at 1.9:1, THis sort of bet would be in the order of 80:1 with someone like Kirchen.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Kirchen is a good long shot. So is Oscar Periero. Igor Antón, Sandy Casar or Marzio Bruseghin could bring really long odds.

The only way one of these guys is going to win is to get in a long break (Stage 13 or 17 are the best bets) and gain enough time while the leaders all look at each other to chase, and somehow be strong enough, and have a strong/rested enough team to hold everyone off the rest of the way.

Not likely at all, but you asked for long odds...

 

[ak-zaaf]

moncoutie on the podium gives 100:1


but it's gonna be lost money probably

 

[Anonymous]

i think you will probably get better value, and more fun backing an outsider for green or polka dot..

the bookies are too professional.. a long shot will NOT win the tour..

 

[nathan_peace]

Sastre might be a decent outside bet, if he can stay close to Contador in the mountains (i.e ahead of the likes of schleck, armstrong), then limit his losses in the TT. He could win if Contador bonks on the Ventoux.

 

[1centaur]

If Kloden or Leipheimer gets into a promising break, do the other GC teams tow AC and LA up to the front? If Astana played it as team first, they could utterly torment their rivals.

Otherwise, someone on a lesser team who can TT and climb okay would be the pick to steal the race, if it can be stolen. Sammy Sanchez would fit the bill, especially given a couple of stages that descend to the finish.

 

[jaylew]

Sammy Sanchez would fit the bill, especially given a couple of stages that descend to the finish.

He's not racing the Tour.

 

[phillop]

i would go for nibali or kreuziger on the podium.

 

[BikeCentric]

Michael Rogers would be a good long-odds pick for a shot at it, though I personally won't throw any good money away on the bet.

 

[Anonymous]

Who could steal the Tour on the no radios stage 13 and be capable of holding on?

Being an American Zabrinsky or hincape come to mind.

Pereiro maybe?

Someone from a team outside the favorites.

 

[Anonymous]

Who could steal the Tour on the no radios stage 13 and be capable of holding on?

Being an American Zabrinsky or hincape come to mind.

Pereiro maybe?

Someone from a team outside the favorites.

 

[cycutza]

On the floor LOL

 

[ambrose]

Rogers would be my first choice for a long shot. strong team so won't loose time in the TTT, has won three world TT champs. He had virtual yellow in 07 before breaking his collarbone and no one really knows what to expect, he hasn't done much racing in the last two years. this years giro wasn't the best, but maybe he's built on the form.
Unfortunately i don't think anyone can beat AC without some luck

 

[Escarabajo]

Pereiro, Kloden and Rogers are not such a long shots in my opinion. They won't get the freedom.

Here is the list of my long shots: Luis Leon Sanchez, Franco Pellizoti, Vladimir Karpets, Haimar Zubeldia, Christophe Mareau, Thomas Dekker, Sylvain Chavanel, David Moncoutie, Yaroslav Popovych, David Arroyo.

If you are considering to bet on the Podka Dot Jersey like Dimspace suggested I'll give you Rigoberto Uran as a long shot.

Good Luck.

 

[karlboss]

I really think the yellow will go to plan and one of the favourites will win, also with the green, and white. Polkadot seems a complete gamble so that is probably a "good" place to put money, will have to look at a list of riders for a good pick. The problem with breaks for the yellow is i think who ever goes really has to be a complete surprise. I like the idea of astana taking the yellow early and then sending someone up the road.

 

[phillop]

agreed, that could see some one like zubeldia, popovich or maybe kloden in yellow as their the ones who will be going in the breaks to sit on the back and watch them, and i could see the other teams allowing that to happen in hope of seeing astana implode. imagine, contador wants to chase, armstrong doesnt, popovich is in a break and takes ten minutes.

 

[BikeCentric]

Obviously the creature in that picture is a Newt from Capek's "War With the Newts."

http://www.amazon.com/Newts-Europea...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1246336658&sr=1-1

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Arroyo is a good super long shot. He's on Caisse, which is a powerful team, he can climb very well, and TT okay. If he can get away on a break on like I said, 13 or 17 and end up in yellow with like 4-5 minutes in the lead, he could hold that through the ITT in Annecy and on Ventoux.

Maybe.

If Astana rode as a team, together, they could indeed cause serious damage and one of their guys (Levi, Klodi, Popo, Zubeldia) could get away. But I think it's pretty obvious that by the time we get to Stage 7 the team will likely be split in two.

Not sure why that poster quoted Jack, but that thing is seriously funny!

 

[unsheath]

Franco Pellizotti would be one to consider. Looks in better form than previous seasons and may get some leeway when the big boys start eyeballing each other and may be just the one they let go.