Urine Trouble

[DirtyWorks]

The Clinic is not representative of the way in which John Q. Public thinks about someone in Lance Armstrong's position. Call it unfortunate or not, but it's reality.

I get the sense that you feel the population of casual cycling fans is relatively fixed. Having lived through enough Olympics boom/busts and the LeMond boom/bust in cycling content, I believe casual competitive cycling awareness is very fluid.

More importantly, many, many casual cycling fans will treat the indictments as a fatal blow to the myth. Their respect for law and order supercedes the 'win at any cost' athlete. He'll be lumped in with Pete Rose, Black Sox of 1919. Marion Jones will look like a saint.

The NFL comparison has other problems. The history of NFL players and their multiple felonies is long. Most NFL enthusiasts tacitly acknowledge the mentality required to play the sport tends to lead to felonies outside the sport. Cycling doesn't have these problems... Yet.

 

[Cimacoppi49]

Multiple experts who are independent?
I am sure LA will have multiple experts who will agree that the samples are unreliable.

ROTFLMAO!!! Of course he will. However, if there are samples for his teammates that incriminate them in doping or show they committed perjury in front of the Grand Jury, those Lance experts' testimonial effect will be gone faster than a snowball on the tarmac in Oz last month.

 

[MD FACG FACP]

Comparing Joe Papp to a crack dealer is offensive because it flippantly degrades someone who has acknowledged his past indiscretions, is very knowledgeable about drug problems in cycling and who has apparently turned his life toward helping deal with those problems.

You apparently believe that the police shouldn't use reformed crack dealers to learn about drug culture. The police should ignore all criminal sources of information about crime. They should never use information from the mob to better understand organized crime. They shouldn't interview people like Ted Bundy to study serial killers.

If your logic is going to be this bad, please try not to be so rude.

If someone wants to come clean that's great. But it doesn't mean they didn't commit the crime. I apologize for offending drug dealers.

 

[Semper Fidelis]

ROTFLMAO!!! Of course he will. However, if there are samples for his teammates that incriminate them in doping or show they committed perjury in front of the Grand Jury, those Lance experts' testimonial effect will be gone faster than a snowball on the tarmac in Oz last month.

True. So far does anyone know if the Fed's are requesting teammate samples?

How would the lab know the id of the teammate samples? I thought that was anom?

Oh and I need to add. ROFLMFAO

 

[DirtyWorks]

The visit of US investigators was well done. They were apparently asking questions and gathering potential trial evidence of different types. They probably asked to see the chain of custody as it exists at the French lab for Armstrong's, and perhaps other rider's, samples from 1999 and later. They would not go the Letters Rogatory route unless they were satisfied there are no chain of custody problems.

It appears the Letters Rogatory process was started soon after their return to the US. I've done one Letter Rogatory in a civil case through diplomatic channels. It took about 7 months to effect service of the materials in Germany. My understanding is that in criminal matters, the process is now much quicker as the offices of Interpol are used.

If the AUSA obtains and tests urine and blood samples for Armstrong and his teammates from every tour they rode for Postal, there could be an avalanche of incriminating evidence produced at trial in this country. It looks like finally the **** is hitting the fan, despite the PR presented via the AP article of a couple of weeks ago questioning whether Armstrong would ever be indicted.

1. Thank you for posting.
2. My problem with the fact the samples will likely be loaded with doping artifacts is the lack of consequences. This is a dead end that allows the myth to live on, tainted, but still intact.

The common discussion among know-nothings like me keeps coming back to the ACT of doping. That's not a big crime. I worry that the final charges will be minor compared to the much worse allegations of acquisition and distribution and Tailwind principals role in breaking laws.

 

[BotanyBay]

Multiple experts who are independent?
I am sure LA will have multiple experts who will agree that the samples are unreliable.

I agree with Glenn here. I'm not saying it's right, but we'd all be fools to assume that Lance's team will not be able to surround the 12-year-old samples with plenty of reasonable doubt, especially since they've been sitting in private (non-judicial) hands the entire time.

I know we all WANT him to go down, but man, 12 years is a long time. If I were an attorney, I wouldn't want to go in with 12 year old body fluid evidence (stored in France).

 

[DirtyWorks]

How would the lab know the id of the teammate samples? I thought that was anom?

I believe the UCI would need to provide the names/id's. If law enforcement makes the request, they can't go to their usual ridiculous lengths to protect a favored rider. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[Kennf1]

Judge Adolph Canales (Dallas) dismissed findings that LA was gassed.

No. As I recall, the only ruling made by Judge Canales was to disqualify one of the arbitrators picked by SCA due to a conflict of interest.

 

[Race Radio]

Forgive my non-scientist brain here, but can identity be determined from urine samples via DNA testing, etc?

Yes, you can. Armstrong knows this. He has never denied they were his samples. His only defense is they might have been tampered with by the evil French

 

[BotanyBay]

I get the sense that you feel the population of casual cycling fans is relatively fixed. Having lived through enough Olympics boom/busts and the LeMond boom/bust in cycling content, I believe casual competitive cycling awareness is very fluid.

More importantly, many, many casual cycling fans will treat the indictments as a fatal blow to the myth. Their respect for law and order supercedes the 'win at any cost' athlete. He'll be lumped in with Pete Rose, Black Sox of 1919. Marion Jones will look like a saint.

The NFL comparison has other problems. The history of NFL players and their multiple felonies is long. Most NFL enthusiasts tacitly acknowledge the mentality required to play the sport tends to lead to felonies outside the sport. Cycling doesn't have these problems... Yet.

Nah, now every famous person gets their Rolling Stone cover with the headline "_______ ________. He's Off Drugs and High on Life!"

In the 1930's, once you fell, you stayed fallen. Now falling is part of the American psyche. Can't you see the shift towards apologism happening with his mainstream fans already?

This (of course) pertains only to the doping stuff. The LAF is another matter. Duping "Kids with Kancer" is less forgivable in America.

 

[Mambo95]

I believe the UCI would need to provide the names/id's. If law enforcement makes the request, they can't go to their usual ridiculous lengths to protect a favored rider. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

The UCI can just tell them 'no' if they want to. United States law only applies in the US. Despite what some might think, they're not the World police.

 

[DirtyWorks]

People here may see it as false, but the average public won't most likely. It will depend on how it is presented. If it is presented as a doping story... The only other angle from the stand point of it being a fraud charge is "You have to be kidding me, we are spending time going after 10 mil (or what ever the number is) from 10 years ago, but we let one of the prime players (Angelo Mozila from Countrywide Financial) for the financial downfall skate? What a joke."

Those are two of many possible angles. The media's job is to attract readers, so don't rule out innovations in the way they tell this story.

Also, the Mozilo comparison is weak again. Finance was/is a huge employer. Pharmstrong most decidedly not. Mozilo plays at another level of political gamesmanship that Team Pharmstrong didn't get started until AFTER the investigation got going.

 

[md2020]

...

End of the day, even if proven in US court to have committed a crime, I don't see Armstrong suffering any worse than Vick (and he's certainly in a better position financially, and w/ respect to interconnected web of vested interests backing him who aren't prepared to abandon him wholesale and will maintain at least a qualified support). Time will tell.

The big difference is that Vick's crime was completely unrelated to his success in the NFL. Dogfighting didn't help him become successful on the field. Plus, he came back from prison, found a lot of success on the field, and acted contrite whereas publicly Lance's comeback was a failure and I don't see Lance showing any contrition any time soon.

If Lance is found guilty then it discredits not only his success but the entire mythology that he's built up. In that sense it's more like Pete Rose (as someone mentioned in another thread). The difference there is that Pete didn't have a cancer charity to launder his reputation with.

Either way I think the comparisons are hard because people in the US just don't give a cr*p about cycling. I think it would kill his endorsements but I think the whole Livestrong front will survive.

 

[DirtyWorks]

The UCI can just tell them 'no' if they want to. United States law only applies in the US. Despite what some might think, they're not the World police.

You are right, but it didn't happen. I attribute the fact the investigation got the samples as much to the den of thieves at the top of UCI as any other viable explanation.

 

[fatandfast]

I get the sense that you feel the population of casual cycling fans is relatively fixed. Having lived through enough Olympics boom/busts and the LeMond boom/bust in cycling content, I believe casual competitive cycling awareness is very fluid.

More importantly, many, many casual cycling fans will treat the indictments as a fatal blow to the myth. Their respect for law and order supercedes the 'win at any cost' athlete. He'll be lumped in with Pete Rose, Black Sox of 1919. Marion Jones will look like a saint.

The NFL comparison has other problems. The history of NFL players and their multiple felonies is long. Most NFL enthusiasts tacitly acknowledge the mentality required to play the sport tends to lead to felonies outside the sport. Cycling doesn't have these problems... Yet.

a small amount of research will yield some doping gold within the NFL framework. Ex and soon to be ex players and their families have taken an entirely different approach. They acknowledge the drug use straight away..

they settle for large sums of cash (big lumps) because the jury process is risky and they fear that regular people will see the drug aftermath as partially the players responsibility. The NFL probably is sick over this use of the workmans comp system but it works for one time drugged up players with health problems that will last a lifetime.

The NFL is probably a better model than pro cycling were lots of players have pensions and access to health care..via their union. Cyclists have squat after they are done and hope to parlay camera time and quirks,or goodlooks into something..some momentum..

 

[BotanyBay]

The difference there is that Pete didn't have a cancer charity to launder his reputation with.
.

Post of the day!

 

[Colm.Murphy]

My understanding, and from what Ashenden and others have written, is that if the samples are frozen and stored properly, there is no issue with their integrity. Attacking the Lab's records as to storage temps, service of the freezer, etc etc will be hammered but I cannot imagine the US Feds would undertake this action unless they'd already nailed down the veracity of what they were obtaining.

The "purported" issue with the 99 TdF samples before was that they were research study samples and there was not the full Chain of Custody documentation that would exist if they'd been used for an anti-doping test. The A's had been declared "clean" which is another factor they tried to lean on in the Vrijman document

Now, if these samples have been stored properly, and were not part of a research study where their CoC will be subject to dispute and attack, the urine should not have any problem being thawed and be suitable for testing. Bearing in mind that EPO can degrade, not magically appear, and that the newest forms of the tests for EPO, CIR and DEHP most likely will be applied if there is enough urine.

The issue of how to get the all sample numbers which are Lance's is solvable. Ressiot already had some of the numbers, and the UCI still has the numbers. I don't imagine it will be hard to obtain Lance's sample numbers by his own suggestion, as he claimed he'd cooperate. Recent development, like McQuaid's turnaround comments, and Lance's sudden withdrawal from the sport again, now make a little more sense.

Urine can, and probably will, be DNA tested to determine if they are from the individual. Funny thing, recall the notion that no one noticed Lance's cancer despite him being tested? Begs the question of they were looking at his urine at all during that time, huh?

I predict his samples will glow like spent nuclear reactor rods when run through the CIR process, and very well could have big spike for DEHP once EPO went out of style.

Let's keep in mind that proving the guy used PEDS in criminal court is different than proving it in anti-doping arbitration. Burden of proof is higher but they are not confined by the strictest of testing methodologies. A DEHP test already exists. It might not have yet been validated for WADA but the medical and forensic lab community has a myriad of tests that they use everyday that are not part of the anti-doping world. Fighting evidence of DEHP spikes from having a DEHP test run by an FBI lab or a highly reputable medical facility will be hard to undercut.

 

[pedaling squares]

This is not an anti-doping control. The reason they’ve requested samples is to prove the path from purchase, to trafficking to storage to usage. They’ve asked for the samples form other cyclists as well.

This is more along the lines of what I was thinking. Whether LA doped or not isn't supposed to be the focus of the investigation. Without some other trafficking or fraud charges, none of this would be happening. At best I see this as supporting evidence, not the final gotcha.

Gentlemen, how does the presence of a banned substance in one's urine establish or even support trafficking? It can show that he used the substance, but not that he sold it, traded for it, or gave it away. Unless you are referring to an investigation into the actions of Armstrong's suppliers, which I believe is outside the scope of what is being conducted at this time.

Novitzky covering all bases is what you expect from a human hound dog. After some careful thought he will probably consider the credibility of all the people involved in administering and storing the sample for 11 or 12 years...

I know we all WANT him to go down, but man, 12 years is a long time. If I were an attorney, I wouldn't want to go in with 12 year old body fluid evidence (stored in France).

If proper procedures for care and custody of the samples were followed, it should not matter if they were stored for 12 minutes or 12 years.

 

[Cimacoppi49]

True. So far does anyone know if the Fed's are requesting teammate samples?

How would the lab know the id of the teammate samples? I thought that was anom?

Oh and I need to add. ROFLMFAO

I'm certain the reporters at L'Equipe can get the information. Seriously, that information is held by the UCI, IIRC. The identities can be determined once criminal legal process in Europe moves on the UCI. Just keep Pat away from the shredding machine and the degausser.

 

[mtb Dad]

One big question is whether he will try to minimize his own culpability by throwing others under the bus and spreading the blame. A bribe paid to the UCI could easily be spun as an extortion payment. Blaming the entire corrupt sport may not help him in a criminal case, but it could be used in a public relations campaign.

I had the same thought, but wondered if it would be even better for the sport. If Armstrong exposes VerDRUGgen's corruption, that would make a bigger difference than just a doper going down, even the uber-doper.

Can you imagine? WADA would never have a problem getting money from national governments because it would be so clear the international federations cannot be trusted, especially the ones based in Switzerland.

 

[Colm.Murphy]

The UCI can just tell them 'no' if they want to. United States law only applies in the US. Despite what some might think, they're not the World police.

They already said they'd cooperate, as did Lance. Going back on that now would be such a drastic adverse inference.

The French Lab is part of the French govt., so they are compelled to cooperate, and clearly are.

For samples you want but don't have numbers for, tell you what, take a day from a TdF when you know Lance either won the stage or was in yellow and take all the samples. Run them all. Publish the results. That would provoke some "Fabiani-isms".

I have a sense that under the WADA code, USADA can also request the samples from the UCI and they'd need a very very very good reason, like they don't exist or everyone at the UCI resigns and can't come to the phone right now, to reject the request.

Doing things the hard way will assure they get the absolute worst possible treatment.

 

[DirtyWorks]

...Let's keep in mind that proving the guy used PEDS in criminal court is different than proving it in anti-doping arbitration. Burden of proof is higher but they are not confined by the strictest of testing methodologies. A DEHP test already exists. It might not have yet been validated for WADA but the medical and forensic lab community has a myriad of tests that they use everyday that are not part of the anti-doping world. Fighting evidence of DEHP spikes from having a DEHP test run by an FBI lab or a highly reputable medical facility will be hard to undercut.

I agree with your prediction, but the use of PED's is not a big crime in the U.S. This is the great danger of settling in on just PED use. Acquisition, distribution, and varied fraud claims carry more criminal penalties.

If the samples are used to strengthen multiple felonies, then it is a great effort. In case it isn't 100% obvious by now, I think that the outcome may be a plea/conviction on an assortment of minor crimes. I don't want it to be, but I'm staying open to the potential the myth lives on.

 

[Anonymous]

excuse me if this has been answered and i missed it..

are they getting all the samples that were taken? or only those that tested positive for EPO? are they only those that have been identified as LA? in other words, is this only to test LA or is there a possibility of them trying to implicate teammates as well?

 

[python]

I agree with your prediction, <snip>

i don't.

when predictions are made on the basis of passionate beiefs, they are shacky at best.

why on earth 99 samples need to be tested for dehp ? this been debunked many times..

 

[sniper]

I agree with your prediction, but the use of PED's is not a big crime in the U.S. This is the great danger of settling in on just PED use. Acquisition, distribution, and varied fraud claims carry more criminal penalties.

If the samples are used to strengthen multiple felonies, then it is a great effort. In case it isn't 100% obvious by now, I think that the outcome may be a plea/conviction on an assortment of minor crimes. I don't want it to be, but I'm staying open to the potential the myth lives on.

Let us not forget this either:

Howman said he suspects "some information will come out of the current inquiries that will be equally as significant as BALCO.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/ot...-significant-as-BALCO-says-WADA-director.html

I don't know the guy that well, but my gutfeeling (for what it's worth) tells me to be confident that Howman wasn't exxaggerating.