I think, as others have said, that USADA's statements about continuing the investigation are more window-dressing than anything else and that nothing is likely to occur beyond the press release that was issued yesterday.
After reading the entire WADA Code, it's my belief that Armstrong is not likely to be sanctioned by either USADA or WADA and that this whole thing will fade away. USADA and every other NGB (National Governing Body) that would have any jurisdiction over Armstrong or any event he may have participated in (and as to which an adverse finding might result in stripping him of a finishing result) adhere to the terms and conditions set forth in the WADA Code. As set forth therein, the Statute of Limitations for violations by an athlete could not be any clearer. It reads:
ARTICLE 17: STATUTE OF LIMITATIONS
No action may be commenced against an Athlete or other
Person for an anti-doping rule violation contained in the Code
unless such action is commenced within eight (8) years from
the date the violation is asserted to have occurred. [Emphasis added].
The WADA Statute of Limitations can be found
at this link, on page 95.
So what does "commence an action" mean within the context of WADA and USADA?. Based on USADA's procedures, it would seem to mean something other than the mere opening of a fact-finding investigation. Instead it seems to mean when USADA actually notifies the athlete that it is bringing a formal charge against the athlete for suspected use of a prohibited substance contained on the WADA list. Based on what I've read-- and I admit of course that I have no first-hand experience with USADA enforcement actions-- this appears to typically occurs only after the athlete may have been notified that an analytical sample (an A or B sample) has been tested and resulted in a suspected laboratory finding that a substance on the prohibited list was contained in the sample. After that analytical finding is first made, the matter is then submitted to the Anti-Doping Review Board. That might be when, under USADA procedure, an "action" is first "commenced" but it's not clear from reading the Code. But it might also be at a later point than that: Even though the athlete is notified at the time an analytical finding is referred to the independent Anti-Doping Review Board, it's clear that the board itself would not have actually rendered any decision, and thus no "charge" would have been made against the athlete at that time. This is also consistent with the fact that there is no hearing allowed before the Anti-Doping Review Board and the athlete isn't permitted to participate at that point. In essence, this is because there is no formal charge yet assesed or made by the governing body against the athlete. Instead, it's not until
after the Review Board first renders a finding that there has been an alleged violation, the athlete is then notified that he has the right to contest and participate in any hearing.
I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but it's my understanding that USADA has not yet actually brought any formal charge against Armstrong-- at least not yet-- for any violation of the Code, and both WADA and USADA and any other agency or NGB (national governing body) are all basically at the same point that the Justice Department and U.S Attorney's office weres at, i.e., at the investigatory stage and evidence-gathering stage, interviewing potential witnesses and and taking testimony from various sources. I don't think either USADA or WADA would assert that they have yet "commenced an action" against Armstrong. And it's now 2012, so the real question is, if no "action" has yet been "commenced", wouldn't it now be barred by WADA's own Statute of Limitations contained in the WADA Code?