USADA - Armstrong

[BotanyBay]

Let's get back to a real discussion, shall we...

provided the review board decides to proceed with the hearing, what do people think will be Armstrong's next move?

His letter accused usada of breaking the federal law...does that mean he is going to file a law suit, where? Will he appeal to the congress?

No, he won't bother to file suit. Every move right now is just the advance paving of the road for his post-cycling wagon circling of his most loyal fans and sponsors. He needs to launch his "I'm getting screwed by these guys" story so that when he loses (and he will) he can bring that population of believers along with him into the sunset.

 

[MarkvW]

Let's get back to a real discussion, shall we...

provided the review board decides to proceed with the hearing, what do people think will be Armstrong's next move?

His letter accused usada of breaking the federal law...does that mean he is going to file a law suit, where? Will he appeal to the congress?

If I were a dirty, lying cheating snake, here's what I'd do: First I would bribe, extort, or cajole my buddies in USA Cycling into backing me. Then I'd file a (collusive) lawsuit against USA Cycling, demanding that the heinousness stop now! USA Cycling would then tank the case, and the resulting court order would make USADA (the agent of USA Cycling) stop hassling me.

 

[thehog]

Let's get back to a real discussion, shall we...

provided the review board decides to proceed with the hearing, what do people think will be Armstrong's next move?

His letter accused usada of breaking the federal law...does that mean he is going to file a law suit, where? Will he appeal to the congress?

Too late for that. He can only pull that move after verdict. You can't suggest federal law has broken before due process has played out. He'd also probably have to exhaust his options via arbitration ie CAS before a federal court would listen.

Armstrongs tactic is not to win but to avoid any of the evidence getting out. So no chance he's going to allow a hearing. Even with a closed hearing there are court reporters nd issued statements. When USADA deliver a verdict they will give a summary of the result and the evidence presented.

I'd say he'll non-contest and make claims about it being an unfair process. He'll have his 7 titles stripped. That will then open up the gates on civil action. The fact that he non-contested will make it much easier for those litigants.

The only hope he has is the UCI... they would have to step in and take USADA to CAS or WADA. They would need very good reason to do so I doubt they could pull it off. But the UCI are capable of anything so this may actually occur!

The question is: can USADA officially strip his titles? If only in the name he my hold on and avoid civil repercussions.

 

[python]

@mew:
To try publicly smear usada is one thing,yet to fight charges in the real fight to death with usada is quite another. The 1st, as you say, may be his way of thinking, but he desparetly needs to find a way to save his legacy and his wins.
He has to contemplate the next move and I really don't think *****ingggg and moaning about bad usada is very productive in terms of real results.

@BB
So, you allude to him resigning to losing the hearing?

 

[peterst6906]

You can't suggest federal law has broken before due process has played out.

The current situation would suggest otherwise. He has already alleged through his response to USADA that they breached Federal law.

It may even be convincing enough to powerful friends of his to launch an investigation into whether Grand Jury statutes have been broken.

If his lobbying was able to shut down the Grand Jury, you would have to think the same links, if they exist, could easily launch an investigation into the legality of USADA's actions.

 

[Polish]

I expect the USADA Review Board to rubberstamp charges in triplicate and send the case on to the next step. The Hearing.

And at the Hearing we will hear what we have all heard before multiple times. Nothing new really, some new faces. CVV JV DZ who knows. But the same old stories.

And there has to be al least 10 riders/etc to testify right? Thats what the USADA said right? I would guess those 10+ riders will be grilled appropriately.
Blood Data angle is bogus. Shoot that down easy.

And if by chance sanctions are imposed - go to CAS.
Cleared by CAS is the End Game.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

I generally agree with your posts.

This has not been put to bed and actually has just been awoken again by a respected forum member.

The scenario of Armstrong owning Hein doesn't make any sense if LA succesfully masked his elevated hCG from the UCI.

The whole episode is covered at length in Chapter 6 of From Lance to Landis.

Jacques de Ceaurriz, director of the French national laboratory for drug testing at Chatenay-Malabry strongly implied that Armstrong's elevate hCG level was picked up by the tests but not reported. That means they were ignored.

Why you go off about things like this, that contradict a recent post and what has been previously reported is beyond me.

Sorry, but I don't buy that particular conspiracy. I think masking is the much more logical explanation.

 

[python]

....... launch an investigation into the legality of USADA's actions.

You mean the us law legality? Because it is rather clear his accusations of wada code violation are shallow and have already been hinted at by wada as meritless.

If so, that goes to the heart of question if he is going to sue in federal courts to try to stall the usada hearing.

 

[peterst6906]

You mean the us law legality? Because it is rather clear his accusations of wada code violation are shallow and have already been hinted at by wada as meritless.

No, I mean if it's true that his contacts had the GJ process shut down, then those same links could be used to put pressure on USADA.

Personal relationships and individual leverage often have more sway in matters than the law (even in legal issues).

I can attest to that from my area of expertise and over my 23 year career I have found that to be true.

If his contacts are as strong as was discussed here after the GJ closure, then whether or not USADA are correct and following procedure, they should expect a lot of pressure behind the scenes.

I'm not suggesting that is the reality as I have no real clue whether his contacts/personal aspirations really closed down the GJ process.

Just throwing it out there. If he really has the clout, USADA should have their shields up on all fronts - public and private.

 

[Polish]

You mean the us law legality? Because it is rather clear his accusations of wada code violation are shallow and have already been hinted at by wada as meritless.

If so, that goes to the heart of question if he is going to sue in federal courts to try to stall the usada hearing.

Don't think Lance will "stall the USADA hearing". If anyone is going to need more time to prepare - its the USADA. They are the ones who have to present a case that will convince CAS and ASO. I can imagine the USADA asking for more time somewhere down the road. Make up some excuse or new rule to give themselves more time. Star Chamber stuff.

 

[Dr. Maserati]

The current situation would suggest otherwise. He has already alleged through his response to USADA that they breached Federal law.

It may even be convincing enough to powerful friends of his to launch an investigation into whether Grand Jury statutes have been broken.

If his lobbying was able to shut down the Grand Jury, you would have to think the same links, if they exist, could easily launch an investigation into the legality of USADA's actions.

Ya, I think this is how he is going to play it.

I don't see him backing off unless the charges get reduced at Review (ie they reject some points on SOL) - but I have read all the related articles and believe that is unlikely.

As USADA have him well pinned in, the only real route to get off is through attempting this through every court or through political pressure - the latter being the better of those options.

 

[python]

No, I mean if it's true that his contacts had the GJ process shut down, then those same links could be used to put pressure on USADA.

Personal relationships and individual leverage often have more sway in matters than the law (even in legal issues).

I can attest to that from my area of expertise and over my 23 year career I have found that to be true.

If his contacts are as strong as was discussed here after the GJ closure, then whether or not USADA are correct and following procedure, they should expect a lot of pressure behind the scenes.

I'm not suggesting that is the reality as I have no real clue whether his contacts/personal aspirations really closed down the GJ process.

Just throwing it out there. If he really has the clout, USADA should have their shields up on all fronts - public and private.

right now this is too abstract to me. I don't exclude a lot of pressure behind the scenes but I can not see how that can be made effective considering a legal path completely different from the American grand jury process. The Usoc? Threats of cutting federal funding for usada? What?

 

[thehog]

The current situation would suggest otherwise. He has already alleged through his response to USADA that they breached Federal law.

It may even be convincing enough to powerful friends of his to launch an investigation into whether Grand Jury statutes have been broken.

If his lobbying was able to shut down the Grand Jury, you would have to think the same links, if they exist, could easily launch an investigation into the legality of USADA's actions.

He'd have to get an injunction to delay USADA but to do so need fairly strong evidence to suggest that the testimony is from the Grand Jury. USADA could easily show that the evidence is from their own interviews.* If Armstrong could pull off an injunction I’d be mighty impressed. But imagine if he did? Where would that leave the anti-doping process? USADA was a Clinton/government initiative. It could leave the US in a situation being barred from certain sports or the IOC. If WADA were tough enough they may act. Athletes have gone the Federal route before all have lost.
*
Armstrong has one problem. He’s actually worse off when Floyd had his hearing. Landis was arguing science and mishandling of his sample – that was complex and the general public were lost in the detail. Armstrong has 10 former colleagues who have provided written testimony that he doped. That’s a lot more compelling than arguing science of a dope test – when the general public is concerned. And a lot more compelling in civil suits or appealing to a high court.
*
USADA would have sort legal advice on this before proceeding. I still feel you can't mount a challenge until the process has played out. I also note in all of USADAs statements they reference that they're following Federal law.

 

[peterst6906]

Threats of cutting federal funding for usada? What?

No, I wouldn't think this. it's not personal enough.

Ultimately people make decisions (all decisions) on the basis of what is best for them personally at the time the decision is made.

In order to have leverage over someone, you need to figure out what they really want, or what they want the least.

If you can figure out either of those extremes, you have a winning position.

Whether it's bureaucrats, private industry, politicians, entrepreneurs or anyone, we all have weaknesses based on aspirations and vulnerabilities.

It only takes someone to work those out and based on professional stereotypes, there's usually a starting place to step off from.

Threats against an organisation are perhaps the least effective unless there is personal interest involved (rarely in my experience). Much better to find a more personal hook with the decision makers.

 

[peterst6906]

He'd have to get an injunction to delay USADA

True, if the public way is the approach.

But if the private approach works (eg. as had been discussed as the reason for shutting down the GJ), then no public action is needed beyond following procedure and waving swords in public.

If you can complain in public but work in private, who cares what the process is. Eventually you'll get what you want (eg. GJ).

This is of course, great for a conspiracy and I'm not tied to it. Just discussing it as an extension of the GJ discussion.

Friendships and links, if they exist, don't just vanish. If they could stop a GJ process behind the scenes, they should be able to work hard on a USADA process too.

 

[Polish]

Lance's Lawyer's scathing letter was meant to be a shot across the bow. If you are going to mess with Texas - you darn better play by the rules. The USADA has to be super careful to not break any laws, not be sneaky like a third year law student. Lance and his lawyers will catch you. Chase you down.

Play by the rules. USA rules and CAS rules and ASO rules.
Lance will file a motion if you slip up. Those can be very effective.

The USADA has to be squeaky clean. Clean Clean Clean.
Hopefully they did not get sloppy when they thought "Lance will not fight".
I doubt they fell for that bluff though. Lance will not fight - lol.

 

[python]

.

Friendships and links, if they exist, don't just vanish. If they could stop a GJ process behind the scenes, they should be able to work hard on a USADA process too.

I still don't see how even though you repeated the general abstract statement.

So, I will repeat too, the USADA though a us based entity is got nothing to do with legal mechanisms that could be brought to pressure a grand jury process.

No political pressure mechanisms are clear to me. A resolute usada, which undoubtedly it is will have to bow to any pressure. In fact, they can turn around and expose those exerting pressure as usada also has a perfect cause, and I am sure they thought thru this and more than likely have their own political backers

 

[peterst6906]

This is of course, great for a conspiracy and I'm not tied to it.

If you find moon landing, Area 51 and JFK conspiracies a funny curiosity, I do too. I believe my own discussion point fits in that same group, suspect but fun to discuss.

 

[Polish]

unless the charges get reduced at Review.

I would guess the USADA Review Board reviewed the USADA charges before they were even released.

What they are reviewing now is Lance's Lawyers response.
I do not see the USADA Review Board reducing charges at this stage of the game. The USADA train has left the station. Next stop arbitration.

 

[thehog]

If you find moon landing, Area 51 and JFK conspiracies a funny curiosity, I do too. I believe my own discussion point fits in that same group, suspect but fun to discuss.

I'm with you. Although I don't suspect it I'm something will come out of left field. Teflon Armstrong always has a way of getting himself out of trouble.

 

[MarkvW]

USADA is immune to the pressure. It has a duty to provide the athlete a fair hearing. When charges are preferred, the train leaves the station, and only some external force is going to change that.

Lance is must attack USADA in an overt way, otherwise the antidoping process keeps chugging along.

 

[Merckx index]

I do not see the USADA Review Board reducing charges at this stage of the game. The USADA train has left the station. Next stop arbitration.

I think this is correct. At most, they might throw out the blood values, based on the fact that UCI did not find them sanctionable. I think there’s a decent chance of this, but if I had to bet, I’d guess they will consider passport analysis beyond their expertise, and will feel it should be decided on at a hearing.

It doesn't really matter, except throwing out those charges would be a psychological boost for LA. As I’ve said repeatedly, absent some really game-changing hard evidence that we know nothing about, this is all about the witnesses. How damaging is this testimony? Except for snippets we heard from Floyd and Tyler last year, and George indirectly, we don't know, but LA knows. He must know going in how realistic his chances are. I think his estimate of that will determine his next move--go to the hearing, try to derail it, or even make a deal.

But whatever h's planning, I’m sure LA's prepared for the hearing. He has already long ago decided who his pick for arb will be, someone he can count on to vote for acquittal, and he also has in mind the list of people he wants the third arb to be chosen from. So if it goes to a hearing, this is his first line of defense: try to get two arbs that are sympathetic to him.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Based on the ridiculous letter he had his lawyers write, I'd say he knows he's going to lose, and is trying to feed the public a story about unfair treatment and process, thus hopefully getting relatively acquitted in the court of public opinion. Based on some conversations I've had, it seems to be working so far. These people echo his spin on stuff. But I don't believe it will last.

 

[thehog]

USADA is immune to the pressure. It has a duty to provide the athlete a fair hearing. When charges are preferred, the train leaves the station, and only some external force is going to change that.

Lance is must attack USADA in an overt way, otherwise the antidoping process keeps chugging along.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/usa-cycling-usada-headquarters-evacuated-in-face-of-wildfires

Looks like Lance has gone to the highest authority and got his wish. Its over. The evidence is gone. Doesn't exist.

 

[TechnicalDescent]

Say what you like about Armstrong, but he won't be hoping USADA headquarters burns down....