Vaughters on Astana, Armstrong in 2009 TdF (not good)

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Vaughters on Armstrong

Don't agree but then Vaughters is known for making such statements. Kloden is past his best and even when Contador was blamed for costing Kloden a podium place in TDF for attacking when he only had to defend his lead, Kloden looked to be struggling. Kloden's best chance was in 2006 and he has not regained that sort of form since. He always seemed to have at least one bad day in the mountains. Very similar sort of rider to Leipheimer. Excellent time trialler on his day. All this dumb talk is just fuel for Armstrong. It just gives him extra motivation. I doubt he will win the Tour but I am sure he will finish ahead of any of the whining bores from Sky or Garmin.
 
JV is bang on. I think some here have forgotten how boring last years Tour became. The "soft pedlling" went on for days. I remeber this forum up in arms whilst watching the stages. That day on the Tourmalet was a disgrace. However the route didn't help and allowed Astana to sit up the front and fixate the speed with help from AG2R. The gaps that were created by the TTT didn't help the situation either. Spade a spade - the entire peleton soft pedalled for days and we all saw it.
 
Sep 25, 2009
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Gregory said:
This is actually a very good observation from Vaughters. Suprisingly almost no one had noticed that Astana's strategy despite their great strength was very different from that of US Postal/Discovery.

Andorra Arcalis was the best example. In the old days there would've been a train, and riders like Heras, Rubiera, Azevedo exhausting themselves completely and quickly reducing the group to Armstrong and at best a couple of other guys (BTW, there was never even a question of riders other than Armstorng from Postal/Discovery riding for themselves in the GC despite their good position and chances (like Heras and Azevedo - it shows well the absurdity and hypocrisy in using "team" rhetoric against Contador in 2009 ).

On Andorra the tempo was merely solid, the group still large. The goal was completely different - not to split the field, but to preserve the time differences from the earlier stages. This strategy was 100% pro-Lance, and 100% against Contador. Contador would have benefited from the leadout in the old USPostal style, but it was very inconvenient for him to attack, when the Astana train was pretty much intact. On the other hand Lance was securing in this way his gains from the "split" stage and from TTT. Were it not for the attacks of Evans on Arcalis and SaxoBank on Verbier, which caused the possibility of counterattack, Contador would have been in trouble.
excellent analysis.

yeah, im sick of the endless rehashing of the 2009 tour but it's hard to resist a compliment when reading this post.
 
Jul 22, 2009
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Galic Ho said:
Not a chance dude. My lineage is Anglo Saxon. Mothers side are basically Irish and my dads side immigrated from England in the 1860s after leaving Ireland a century before. Other parts are Scottish, with maybe a touch of German (though I can't prove that bit). Not a chance I share any dna within 5 centuries of anyone from the middle east, let alone Jewish ancestry. No pun or offense intended there.[...]
I hate to break it to you but... Irish, Scots and Germans are not of Anglo Saxon "lineage". Irish and Scots are Celts and Germans are Teutons.

And we all know what the real Anglo Saxons (the English) think of the Irish (and viceversa). Heck, come to think of it, the Irish are the English's Palestinians...

Coincidence, coincidence.
 
thehog said:
JV is bang on. I think some here have forgotten how boring last years Tour became. The "soft pedlling" went on for days. I remeber this forum up in arms whilst watching the stages. That day on the Tourmalet was a disgrace. However the route didn't help and allowed Astana to sit up the front and fixate the speed with help from AG2R. The gaps that were created by the TTT didn't help the situation either. Spade a spade - the entire peleton soft pedalled for days and we all saw it.
+100

I remember those days well. Up at 4 am PT expecting fireworks and getting bupkis. Here's hoping we do not see a repeat in 2010.
 
Nov 17, 2009
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Galic Ho said:
Forget LLS? Come on Lance was a minute behind these guys.
LLS wasn't really in the race for a GC spot, but I suppose since I mentioned Evans I should mention him. Neither really factors in though.

Wiggins would have put a minute into Lance and so would have Kloden. Lance drops two positions then. The other side effect of no TTT would have been the Schleck's going faster in the hills and this means Ventoux would have been a show. They lost less time in the TTT than they would have in a ITT. Necessity is the mother of all inventiveness. They'd have gone faster in the hills. Frank goes ahead of Lance as I see it. Lance drops to 6th.
Using Annecy as a measuring stick, Wiggins would have gained 47 seconds on the TT and saved 18 seconds from not having the TTT. Kloden would have gained 36 seconds.

Predicting what would happen if the pace were higher in other stages is difficult. I would have bet Frank would have dropped Lance on Ventoux. But he couldn't. Just because you think Frank and Andy would have put a ton of time in on Lance in other hilly stages does not make it so. Lance showed a definite ability to hold on well with the one exception being Verbier. Your prediction seems to be that the Verbier performance is how things would work out the rest of the race. What if it was Grand Bornand? Lance would be 4th if that were the case. What if it were Ventoux that was the pattern the rest of the climbing stages would follow? Lance might still get 3rd.

There were 3 defining climbs last year.

Verbier... where Andy and Contador were the class riders, Frank, Nibali, wiggins and Sastre a minute behind, then Armstrong, Kloden and Evans a 30 seconds after that.

Grand Bornand... where Andy, Frank and Contador were the class riders, Lance, Kloden and Nibali 2 minutes behind, then Wiggins a minute after that.

Ventoux... where they all finished pretty close, but Wiggins did lose 20 seconds to Lance and Lance did look a bit stronger then everyone other then Alberto and Andy.

I think even with a ITT, Lance was still stronger then Wiggins in the mountains... enough that if he needed time he'd have gotten it. He was pretty close to Nibali in the mountains, and a bit ahead in the TT's. (36 seconds in Annecy). Even in your scenario with Frank and Andy attacking more... I have trouble seeing Lance dropping below 4th.


As above. No. I think you're wrong. But it doesn't matter. I think Lance would have dropped easily to 5th and possibly 6th. Wiggins would have put a minute into Lance in the ITT and there goes 3rd. Kloden, too, so he'd be very close. Actually he'd have been ahead of Lance on GC at that stage. Debatable if he'd have then performed the role he actually did in the Alps. Add in the faster Schleck attacks and it is a whole different top 5. Lance benefited beyond a shadow of a doubt from the stage 3 breakaway, the TTT and a sacrificial lamb (Kloden).
I think Kloden was a sacrificial lamb regardless. Kloden only picked up 36 seconds in Annecy on Lance and 15 seconds in Monaco... I'm not sure he'd have gotten enough ahead he wouldn't be in domestique mode anyway. And Lance put a minute on Wiggins on the Grand Bornand stage and 20 seconds on Ventoux. I'm not sure he couldn't have gotten more if he needed it.

I think the TTT made the tour less exciting... but I'm not conviced like some are it would have drastically changed the results.

The top 7 was going to remain the same regardless... as was the top 2. I simply don't think Bruyneel would allow Kloden to finish ahead of Lance... so that makes Armstrong's lowest finish 6th. Wiggins was struggling enough in the mountains at the end that I doubt he could have kept his TT gains on Lance if time was needed. That makes 5th. I have trouble with a scenario where Nibali picks up a minute and a half (if no TT) or 2 minutes (if an ITT) if the TTT were replaced. That makes 4th.

The only question is if Frank could have gained enough for 3rd with attacks in the hilly stages. I wish we could have seen him try.
 
I think there is too much focus on Armstrong's result without appropriate consideration of the impact on the entire race. If stage 4 is an ITT, then it is likely the entire dynamic of the Tour changes. If you recall the question of who was team leader on Astana was in full bloom (this was just after Armstrong's 41 second grab on stage 3). Armstrong was gloating; Ben Stiller had flown in anticipation of Lance pulling on the MJ. If the stage 4 TTT is replaced with an ITT, then I think what follows is dramatically different.

Recall that Armstrong was the 4th strongest on his team, so I suspect this would have played out similarly, with Lance coming in a respectful 4th amongst the Astana quartet. The important point, however, would have been that AC's leadership would have been unchallenged at that point, since he would have won outright or finished just behind Spartacus. There would have been little point of discussing who was the strongest on the team, since he would have beaten Armstrong twice in four stages. That makes me think Arcalis would have been a more traditional stage where Armstrong would have likely finished further than 20 seconds off AC's pace. In short, altering stage 4 has far greater consequences than simply moving Armstrong one or two places within the top 10--IMO.
 
Oct 13, 2009
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Too much focus on Armstrong? What, that's this whole board....Take LA out and there's no board....

Pro or Con.....
 
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mitchman said:
Too much focus on Armstrong? What, that's this whole board....Take LA out and there's no board....

Pro or Con.....
Says the man posting on an Armstrong thread. Again with the irony deficiency.
 
Mar 17, 2009
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Publicus said:
...appropriate consideration of the impact on the entire race. If stage 4 is an ITT, then it is likely the entire dynamic of the Tour changes.
Wisely put... the analysis of any stage race has to be done as a whole. If stages are different (i.e. inclusion or not of the TTT) teams will plan differently, maybe take different team members, dose their efforts differently. It will factor into how tired teams are and points in the race, which breaks to chase and which to let go.

The results are as they are.
 
Sep 24, 2009
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Wallace said:
I think it was Bikesnob NYC who said that Kloden is just one Freiburg phone call away from the lip-and-anus station at the Vienna Schnitzel factory--he's happy just to have a job in the sport. He's not the guy to complain about any role he's paid to play.
Isn't it more likely that Bikesnob is one phone call away from a lip-and-anus session with Prance?
 
Mar 19, 2009
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I very uch dislike armstrong... but i thought this was a bit gay from vaughters... No need for this. But anything that annoys armstrong is fine with me... but its not something I would do.. I thinks its a bit stupid and shame on vaughters.. He''s probably rigtht though :S
 
Jul 26, 2009
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Señor_Contador said:
I hate to break it to you but... Irish, Scots and Germans are not of Anglo Saxon "lineage". Irish and Scots are Celts and Germans are Teutons.

And we all know what the real Anglo Saxons (the English) think of the Irish (and viceversa). Heck, come to think of it, the Irish are the English's Palestinians...

Coincidence, coincidence.
you sir are correct.......i live and die with trying to explain "latins"......i know not thread related, so ill add , wonder if JV is of anglo saxon descent......:rolleyes:
 
Mar 13, 2009
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Wallace said:
I think it was Bikesnob NYC who said that Kloden is just one Freiburg phone call away from the lip-and-anus station at the Vienna Schnitzel factory--he's happy just to have a job in the sport. He's not the guy to complain about any role he's paid to play.
lol :D Kloden looks a little androgynous too
 
Aug 12, 2009
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Señor_Contador said:
I hate to break it to you but... Irish, Scots and Germans are not of Anglo Saxon "lineage". Irish and Scots are Celts and Germans are Teutons.

And we all know what the real Anglo Saxons (the English) think of the Irish (and viceversa). Heck, come to think of it, the Irish are the English's Palestinians...

Coincidence, coincidence.
Would Norman and Celt work better? There is Anglo Saxon ancestry, it just comes from 1/8 of my relies. To keep it short, they came to Australia, from England and other parts of Britain. So many things to check

I'm pretty sure the Irish hate the French more right now, thanks to one Thierry Henry and his hand.
 
palmerq said:
I very uch dislike armstrong... but i thought this was a bit gay from vaughters... No need for this. But anything that annoys armstrong is fine with me... but its not something I would do.. I thinks its a bit stupid and shame on vaughters.. He''s probably rigtht though :S
Great post. So what are you saying??? :confused:
 
Aug 25, 2009
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What is all this if the race was a different course armstrong would have finished far lower garbage? It's getting right up their in pathetic sports discussions. Why fantasize? the race is run, the result decided. You're disappointed a rider you've decided to hate did far better than you wanted.That's sport, that's life, get over it and don't be so damned desperate.:eek:
 
Aug 12, 2009
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progressor said:
What is all this if the race was a different course armstrong would have finished far lower garbage? It's getting right up their in pathetic sports discussions. Why fantasize? the race is run, the result decided. You're disappointed a rider you've decided to hate did far better than you wanted.That's sport, that's life, get over it and don't be so damned desperate.:eek:
Actually Lance was on my original top 3 list for the Tour. Got them all 3 in order. Why did I have him there? Because of the strength of Astana. As for fantasize, on the Fantasy League comps, I had Lance in my list in 2009. My advice helped my mom place in the top 3 for the final week on the SBS comp. I got the prize pack. Is that desperate? No desperate would be hoping for him to top 3 again. We're just bored and talking crap. It'll stop when the serious races start.
 
Galic Ho said:
Actually Lance was on my original top 3 list for the Tour. Got them all 3 in order. Why did I have him there? Because of the strength of Astana. As for fantasize, on the Fantasy League comps, I had Lance in my list in 2009. My advice helped my mom place in the top 3 for the final week on the SBS comp. I got the prize pack. Is that desperate? No desperate would be hoping for him to top 3 again. We're just bored and talking crap. It'll stop when the serious races start.
Amen. Once the real racing starts that's all most people will talk about. Pure boredom at work right now.
 
Aug 25, 2009
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Galic Ho said:
Actually Lance was on my original top 3 list for the Tour. Got them all 3 in order. Why did I have him there? Because of the strength of Astana. As for fantasize, on the Fantasy League comps, I had Lance in my list in 2009. My advice helped my mom place in the top 3 for the final week on the SBS comp. I got the prize pack. Is that desperate? No desperate would be hoping for him to top 3 again. We're just bored and talking crap. It'll stop when the serious races start.
That's a relief. I was getting scared that next some arsenal or liverpool fan would start on - we'd be winning the title if only.... :eek: :eek::D
 

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