Galic Ho said:
Forget LLS? Come on Lance was a minute behind these guys.
LLS wasn't really in the race for a GC spot, but I suppose since I mentioned Evans I should mention him. Neither really factors in though.
Wiggins would have put a minute into Lance and so would have Kloden. Lance drops two positions then. The other side effect of no TTT would have been the Schleck's going faster in the hills and this means Ventoux would have been a show. They lost less time in the TTT than they would have in a ITT. Necessity is the mother of all inventiveness. They'd have gone faster in the hills. Frank goes ahead of Lance as I see it. Lance drops to 6th.
Using Annecy as a measuring stick, Wiggins would have gained 47 seconds on the TT and saved 18 seconds from not having the TTT. Kloden would have gained 36 seconds.
Predicting what would happen if the pace were higher in other stages is difficult. I would have bet Frank would have dropped Lance on Ventoux. But he couldn't. Just because you think Frank and Andy would have put a ton of time in on Lance in other hilly stages does not make it so. Lance showed a definite ability to hold on well with the one exception being Verbier. Your prediction seems to be that the Verbier performance is how things would work out the rest of the race. What if it was Grand Bornand? Lance would be 4th if that were the case. What if it were Ventoux that was the pattern the rest of the climbing stages would follow? Lance might still get 3rd.
There were 3 defining climbs last year.
Verbier... where Andy and Contador were the class riders, Frank, Nibali, wiggins and Sastre a minute behind, then Armstrong, Kloden and Evans a 30 seconds after that.
Grand Bornand... where Andy, Frank and Contador were the class riders, Lance, Kloden and Nibali 2 minutes behind, then Wiggins a minute after that.
Ventoux... where they all finished pretty close, but Wiggins did lose 20 seconds to Lance and Lance did look a bit stronger then everyone other then Alberto and Andy.
I think even with a ITT, Lance was still stronger then Wiggins in the mountains... enough that if he needed time he'd have gotten it. He was pretty close to Nibali in the mountains, and a bit ahead in the TT's. (36 seconds in Annecy). Even in your scenario with Frank and Andy attacking more... I have trouble seeing Lance dropping below 4th.
As above. No. I think you're wrong. But it doesn't matter. I think Lance would have dropped easily to 5th and possibly 6th. Wiggins would have put a minute into Lance in the ITT and there goes 3rd. Kloden, too, so he'd be very close. Actually he'd have been ahead of Lance on GC at that stage. Debatable if he'd have then performed the role he actually did in the Alps. Add in the faster Schleck attacks and it is a whole different top 5. Lance benefited beyond a shadow of a doubt from the stage 3 breakaway, the TTT and a sacrificial lamb (Kloden).
I think Kloden was a sacrificial lamb regardless. Kloden only picked up 36 seconds in Annecy on Lance and 15 seconds in Monaco... I'm not sure he'd have gotten enough ahead he wouldn't be in domestique mode anyway. And Lance put a minute on Wiggins on the Grand Bornand stage and 20 seconds on Ventoux. I'm not sure he couldn't have gotten more if he needed it.
I think the TTT made the tour less exciting... but I'm not conviced like some are it would have drastically changed the results.
The top 7 was going to remain the same regardless... as was the top 2. I simply don't think Bruyneel would allow Kloden to finish ahead of Lance... so that makes Armstrong's lowest finish 6th. Wiggins was struggling enough in the mountains at the end that I doubt he could have kept his TT gains on Lance if time was needed. That makes 5th. I have trouble with a scenario where Nibali picks up a minute and a half (if no TT) or 2 minutes (if an ITT) if the TTT were replaced. That makes 4th.
The only question is if Frank could have gained enough for 3rd with attacks in the hilly stages. I wish we could have seen him try.
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