- May 9, 2014
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Re: Re:
If noone being within 3 minutes of the best climber in the race isn't dominant, I don't know what is. He showed signs of weakness on the descents even before his crash, but he looked untouchable uphill.
And if Nibbles had crashed, he would have had teammates to help him for a start
Jspear said:
If noone being within 3 minutes of the best climber in the race isn't dominant, I don't know what is. He showed signs of weakness on the descents even before his crash, but he looked untouchable uphill.
And if Nibbles had crashed, he would have had teammates to help him for a start
- Feb 23, 2014
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Re: Re:
Were they dropped mano on mano or were they caught out or were they really going for it because of the weather? I'm not discounting Nibali's performance that day. I'm just saying it doesn't mean much that he beat them on that particular day in light of PR - my original post was in response to someone comparing that stage win to him beating "the favorites for PR"....like that stage had anything to do with PR.
bassano said:
Were they dropped mano on mano or were they caught out or were they really going for it because of the weather? I'm not discounting Nibali's performance that day. I'm just saying it doesn't mean much that he beat them on that particular day in light of PR - my original post was in response to someone comparing that stage win to him beating "the favorites for PR"....like that stage had anything to do with PR.
- Jun 8, 2010
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I hope Nibali tries to add some classics to his palmares (looks like he wants to, based on some recent interview).
He has more than a decent shot at LBL and possibly MSR (they are probably going to toughen the final part of the course).
Then there is the Rio Olympics and hopefully some harder World course next year (or later on, if still competitive).
I think that’s it for reasonable objectives.
He rode extremely well on the rainy cobbles, and considering his bike handling skills he might consider riding P-R, which of course wouldn’t make him a favorite, but I think could place reasonably well.
Flanders doesn’t really suit his characteristics.
He could have already won both LBL (kind of did…) and Worlds in Firenze where he was clearly the stronger uphill, but luck cannot be always on your side.
Clearly the important thing is structuring the season peaking for the classics, not sure how doable that is considering the GT dates.
He has more than a decent shot at LBL and possibly MSR (they are probably going to toughen the final part of the course).
Then there is the Rio Olympics and hopefully some harder World course next year (or later on, if still competitive).
I think that’s it for reasonable objectives.
He rode extremely well on the rainy cobbles, and considering his bike handling skills he might consider riding P-R, which of course wouldn’t make him a favorite, but I think could place reasonably well.
Flanders doesn’t really suit his characteristics.
He could have already won both LBL (kind of did…) and Worlds in Firenze where he was clearly the stronger uphill, but luck cannot be always on your side.
Clearly the important thing is structuring the season peaking for the classics, not sure how doable that is considering the GT dates.
- Jul 25, 2012
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- 1,970
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Re: Re:
That's part of it. GT riding has become the domain of specialists for a long time. Currently Froome, Contador, Quintana and always the top picks when riding a GT/some stage races but you wouldn't even give them a second thought in any other race. It started with LeMond, Indurain took it to the next level and Armstrong even further. Even the "lesser" GT riders of the recent era, Pantani, Basso, Menchov etc. We see the same thing with most of the young GT talent coming through, it's stage racing only and you wouldn't even give most of them a second thought in a one day race (except Barguil, my favourite of the young guys coming through). Nibali is a threat in pretty much any race he enters. If it's raced right you'd even give him a chance in Milano-Sanremo. Maybe if he had focussed on only ever winning GTs he'd have more, but he's not done that.
There are also lots of other factors people consistently fail to take into account. People are constantly claiming Nibali is lucky, that better riders fall ill or crash, but you don't become one of 6 riders to win all 3 GTs by luck. that's absurd. To win a race you have to finish a race and that means you have have the constitution for 3 weeks of bike racing and the ability to stay upright or at least get back on if you go down and that is determined by how you build up to a race, not just the race itself. We don't know if Nibali was ill during any of his wins, he may have been in this Giro and just didn't want to say. People cry that Landa would have beaten him had he not been ill, but maybe his training was too hard, maybe he put himself in the position where if he didn't get a bug he would be fine but any slight illness was going to knock him out of the race. Maybe Nibali planned his training better, maybe he has a stronger constitution. None of us know any of this, but it is almost never considered. Nibali has been there to take the chances he has had to win all three GTs. He has managed to maintain an ability to compete in races that other GT riders would be laughed at for turning up at. Not only compete, he's managed to win.
As far as I'm concerned he's the greatest GT rider of his generation.
Gigs_98 said:Let the discussion startKing Boonen said:
Let me guess: Monument wins are more important for you and because Nibali is a gt rider and won a monument he is the greater gt rider than Contador although Contador has more gt wins?
That's part of it. GT riding has become the domain of specialists for a long time. Currently Froome, Contador, Quintana and always the top picks when riding a GT/some stage races but you wouldn't even give them a second thought in any other race. It started with LeMond, Indurain took it to the next level and Armstrong even further. Even the "lesser" GT riders of the recent era, Pantani, Basso, Menchov etc. We see the same thing with most of the young GT talent coming through, it's stage racing only and you wouldn't even give most of them a second thought in a one day race (except Barguil, my favourite of the young guys coming through). Nibali is a threat in pretty much any race he enters. If it's raced right you'd even give him a chance in Milano-Sanremo. Maybe if he had focussed on only ever winning GTs he'd have more, but he's not done that.
There are also lots of other factors people consistently fail to take into account. People are constantly claiming Nibali is lucky, that better riders fall ill or crash, but you don't become one of 6 riders to win all 3 GTs by luck. that's absurd. To win a race you have to finish a race and that means you have have the constitution for 3 weeks of bike racing and the ability to stay upright or at least get back on if you go down and that is determined by how you build up to a race, not just the race itself. We don't know if Nibali was ill during any of his wins, he may have been in this Giro and just didn't want to say. People cry that Landa would have beaten him had he not been ill, but maybe his training was too hard, maybe he put himself in the position where if he didn't get a bug he would be fine but any slight illness was going to knock him out of the race. Maybe Nibali planned his training better, maybe he has a stronger constitution. None of us know any of this, but it is almost never considered. Nibali has been there to take the chances he has had to win all three GTs. He has managed to maintain an ability to compete in races that other GT riders would be laughed at for turning up at. Not only compete, he's managed to win.
As far as I'm concerned he's the greatest GT rider of his generation.
- Aug 31, 2012
- 7,550
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Re: Nibali discussion thread
The role of luck in bringing about success of any kind is criminally underappreciated.
The role of luck in bringing about success of any kind is criminally underappreciated.
Re:
I think this is ridiculously unfair on Nibali. For a rider to win 4 GT's, 4 GT podiums, a monument and loads of other races, I think he is doing very well in terms of converting talent to wins.
Let's not forget that he is in an era of Quintana, Froome and Contador. I would argue that if you think Nibali should be on 6 GT wins now, so should Froome and Contador should be on 12+.
Cycling is a chaotic sport, with injury, bad luck and loss of form playing big roles. For Nibali to be on 4 Grand Tours, I think his conversion rate is pretty good.
The fridge in the blue trees said:
I think this is ridiculously unfair on Nibali. For a rider to win 4 GT's, 4 GT podiums, a monument and loads of other races, I think he is doing very well in terms of converting talent to wins.
Let's not forget that he is in an era of Quintana, Froome and Contador. I would argue that if you think Nibali should be on 6 GT wins now, so should Froome and Contador should be on 12+.
Cycling is a chaotic sport, with injury, bad luck and loss of form playing big roles. For Nibali to be on 4 Grand Tours, I think his conversion rate is pretty good.
- Aug 31, 2012
- 7,550
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What? I'm saying that luck often plays a critical role in bringing about outcomes. We may well resort to the fine construct that is the asterisk to document when it does.
Canc suddenly falling ill was a stroke of good luck for Dumoulin, likely instrumental in bringing about his victory. SK crashing was a stroke of good luck for Nibali, likely instrumental in bringing about his victory. We can even, with some confidence, say that Nibali had more luck than Dumoulin did.
Luck affecting results also doesn't render them meaningless, although if you believe it does, it's understandable why you'd want to deny reality and downplay luck as a driver of success.
Canc suddenly falling ill was a stroke of good luck for Dumoulin, likely instrumental in bringing about his victory. SK crashing was a stroke of good luck for Nibali, likely instrumental in bringing about his victory. We can even, with some confidence, say that Nibali had more luck than Dumoulin did.
Luck affecting results also doesn't render them meaningless, although if you believe it does, it's understandable why you'd want to deny reality and downplay luck as a driver of success.
In an interview with Gazzetta Nibali said he wants "one of everything", which sounds more arrogant than it actually was. Basically he said Rio, and Liege. I am really hoping for Liege 2017, like so bad. If he targets it then he will light up the race, and boy does it need lighting up.
Re: Nibali discussion thread
Maybe. The thing is that Kruijswijk was isolated; yes partly by his team being weak and having poor tactics, but also by the pressure from Astana. When the moment came at the top to follow an attacking Nibali in the descent he should have had the option to back off, let go a few 100m, and then have a teammate bring him back when it straightens up further down or even later in the valley if you have to. Instead he has to make a call whether to do all that chasing himself and blow up on Rissoul, or to go beyond his limits following Nibali and risk the crash. So Kruijswijk is certainly unfortunate to have crashed, but I don't think you can say Nibali was lucky here - he made the right moves in isolating the leader and attacking at a point of weakness. I suspect he would have vastly preferred SK to have backed off rather than crashing (and that he blew up through the effort of chasing alone and totally cracked either on Rissoul or the next day.)
Climeon said:
Maybe. The thing is that Kruijswijk was isolated; yes partly by his team being weak and having poor tactics, but also by the pressure from Astana. When the moment came at the top to follow an attacking Nibali in the descent he should have had the option to back off, let go a few 100m, and then have a teammate bring him back when it straightens up further down or even later in the valley if you have to. Instead he has to make a call whether to do all that chasing himself and blow up on Rissoul, or to go beyond his limits following Nibali and risk the crash. So Kruijswijk is certainly unfortunate to have crashed, but I don't think you can say Nibali was lucky here - he made the right moves in isolating the leader and attacking at a point of weakness. I suspect he would have vastly preferred SK to have backed off rather than crashing (and that he blew up through the effort of chasing alone and totally cracked either on Rissoul or the next day.)
Re: Nibali discussion thread
Personally, I think Nibalis style of attacking on downhill is pretty desperate. Hes very adept at it but it's designed to put other riders who have more to lose in danger.
If they fall because there outside of there comfort zone then he does not give a ***, and that's nothing to be proud of in my book.
Others think it's all part of the game but my interest is in a riders physical abilities on a man to man battle going uphill.
Personally, I think Nibalis style of attacking on downhill is pretty desperate. Hes very adept at it but it's designed to put other riders who have more to lose in danger.
If they fall because there outside of there comfort zone then he does not give a ***, and that's nothing to be proud of in my book.
Others think it's all part of the game but my interest is in a riders physical abilities on a man to man battle going uphill.
- Mar 26, 2015
- 7,144
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Re: Re:
Don't get me wrong, I love Nibali.... I love him for his heart and his style of riding.... He is a worthy descendant of the other great GC attackers like Fignon, Chiappucci and Pantani,
But, if we are to be objective, his one TdF win was more a win by default, than him actually beating the best (and yes, you have to finish to compete, bla bla bla)
The other Grand Tours are always a cut below the TdF, apart from the years where most favorites crash out of TdF early, and thus ride the Vuelta to win... the TdF IS the big kahuna, where the very best are all there.
Look at this years Giro... fantastic race, and Nibali most definitely deserved the win.
But, had Froome, Quintana, Contador and Aru been in it to win it, and Landa been there at the end..... would Nibali have gotten better than a 5th?
I doubt it.
So, in terms of style and heart, Nibali is definitely the greatest GC rider of his generation..... but in terms of quality, not really.
King Boonen said:Gigs_98 said:Let the discussion startKing Boonen said:
Let me guess: Monument wins are more important for you and because Nibali is a gt rider and won a monument he is the greater gt rider than Contador although Contador has more gt wins?
That's part of it. GT riding has become the domain of specialists for a long time. Currently Froome, Contador, Quintana and always the top picks when riding a GT/some stage races but you wouldn't even give them a second thought in any other race. It started with LeMond, Indurain took it to the next level and Armstrong even further. Even the "lesser" GT riders of the recent era, Pantani, Basso, Menchov etc. We see the same thing with most of the young GT talent coming through, it's stage racing only and you wouldn't even give most of them a second thought in a one day race (except Barguil, my favourite of the young guys coming through). Nibali is a threat in pretty much any race he enters. If it's raced right you'd even give him a chance in Milano-Sanremo. Maybe if he had focussed on only ever winning GTs he'd have more, but he's not done that.
There are also lots of other factors people consistently fail to take into account. People are constantly claiming Nibali is lucky, that better riders fall ill or crash, but you don't become one of 6 riders to win all 3 GTs by luck. that's absurd. To win a race you have to finish a race and that means you have have the constitution for 3 weeks of bike racing and the ability to stay upright or at least get back on if you go down and that is determined by how you build up to a race, not just the race itself. We don't know if Nibali was ill during any of his wins, he may have been in this Giro and just didn't want to say. People cry that Landa would have beaten him had he not been ill, but maybe his training was too hard, maybe he put himself in the position where if he didn't get a bug he would be fine but any slight illness was going to knock him out of the race. Maybe Nibali planned his training better, maybe he has a stronger constitution. None of us know any of this, but it is almost never considered. Nibali has been there to take the chances he has had to win all three GTs. He has managed to maintain an ability to compete in races that other GT riders would be laughed at for turning up at. Not only compete, he's managed to win.
As far as I'm concerned he's the greatest GT rider of his generation.
Don't get me wrong, I love Nibali.... I love him for his heart and his style of riding.... He is a worthy descendant of the other great GC attackers like Fignon, Chiappucci and Pantani,
But, if we are to be objective, his one TdF win was more a win by default, than him actually beating the best (and yes, you have to finish to compete, bla bla bla
)The other Grand Tours are always a cut below the TdF, apart from the years where most favorites crash out of TdF early, and thus ride the Vuelta to win... the TdF IS the big kahuna, where the very best are all there.
Look at this years Giro... fantastic race, and Nibali most definitely deserved the win.
But, had Froome, Quintana, Contador and Aru been in it to win it, and Landa been there at the end..... would Nibali have gotten better than a 5th?
I doubt it.
So, in terms of style and heart, Nibali is definitely the greatest GC rider of his generation..... but in terms of quality, not really.
Re: Nibali discussion thread
So the winner of GT should be who is the fastest uphill? By that logic what is the point of the other 15 odd stages in GT that aren't mountain stages? Just there to build suspense.
A GT should be won by the smartest rider. This is why nibali has won 4gt. Yes luck has helped. But you don't win 4gt on luck alone. Nibali tour win is the perfect example of this. He knew the first week had plenty of opportunities to gain time on the other favourites. The fact is nibali knows he can't win a GT against the other big 3 following the current GT formula of ride a good TT then ride everyone off your wheel in the high mountains. Instead he actually looks at stages that the others Are just hoping to finish with no dramas and says I can gain time. It doesn't always work for him but at least he isn't like a lot of the 2nd tier GT riders who think that they can match the big boys in the mountains only to get dropped and then settle for a top ten.
arvc40 said:
So the winner of GT should be who is the fastest uphill? By that logic what is the point of the other 15 odd stages in GT that aren't mountain stages? Just there to build suspense.
A GT should be won by the smartest rider. This is why nibali has won 4gt. Yes luck has helped. But you don't win 4gt on luck alone. Nibali tour win is the perfect example of this. He knew the first week had plenty of opportunities to gain time on the other favourites. The fact is nibali knows he can't win a GT against the other big 3 following the current GT formula of ride a good TT then ride everyone off your wheel in the high mountains. Instead he actually looks at stages that the others Are just hoping to finish with no dramas and says I can gain time. It doesn't always work for him but at least he isn't like a lot of the 2nd tier GT riders who think that they can match the big boys in the mountains only to get dropped and then settle for a top ten.
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