Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Rollthedice]

Last year he finished 15th but I'd say he was in a slightly better shape than this year at this point so not many expectations.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Last year he finished 15th but I'd say he was in a slightly better shape than this year at this point so not many expectations.

Probably, but he raced Abu Dhabi straight after having a training camp at high altitute and no racing for over one month, so who knows.

 

[Rollthedice]

Slongo says Nibs asked him on Sunday at the end of Abu Dhabi how come he is not racing Strade. He will also do GP Larciano next day with a slightly different team: Visconti, Siutsou, Pellizotti, Navardauskas, Moreno, Agnoli and brother Antonio.

Slongo thinks that in T-A, Nibali will show something "interesting". The team will be the same as in Larciano but with Boaro instead if Antonio and it should be more or less the team for Giro

 

[hfer07]

Re: Nibali discussion thread

luckily for Vincenzo, is only March

 

[whittashau]

Why is he racing so little? is he going to race at all before the Giro?

 

[Brullnux]

Croatia

 

[Summoned]

Re: Nibali discussion thread

So, I know this isn't terribly important, but it is something I have been thinking about for a while, so I thought I would throw it out there and see if I am thinking about this with more naïveté than I might like.

Nibali has won each of the grand tours, and no question circumstances have worked in his favor for some of those. That being said, he has also been on the final podium of each of the grand tours at least twice. If you think the first accomplishment is tarnished by the circumstances that led to it, then consider that the second would be true even if the other riders affected by the circumstances that propelled Nibali to first had not obtained.

When Nibali won the Vuelta, it was Anton crashing out that made it possible. But he still was at worst the second or third strongest rider in the race, depending upon how you rate Mosquera. The Tour in 2012 did not go at all Nibali's Way, but he still finished in third, despite being pretty clearly outclassed. The first Giro Nibali won was pretty clearly earned, depending upon how much effect you feel the weather had on the riders, but he had already finished on the podium twice before. The Vuelta in 2013 was actually unlucky, I would argue, as the combination of circumstances that resulted in Horner winning are far more unlikely than anything that has allowed Nibali to win a GT. That being said, he still is on the podium.

So that gets us to the two GT's that seem to bother Nibali's detractors the most. If we assume that neither Froome nor Contador crash out of the 2014 Tour, Nibali is still, at worst, the third strongest rider in the race, and I can't see a scenario in which he finishes the race not on the podium. Likewise, with the 2016 Giro, even if Kruijswijk does not miss the turn in the descent, Nibali still is able to overtake Valverde and Chavez on GC, and winds up on the podium.

All this being a long-winded way to say, Nibali is a pretty unusual rider insofar as even if you throw out some results where he benefited from luck, he would still be able to say he had podiumed each of the GT's at least twice. How many riders have that type of result in their palmaries? Obviously in a modern age in which the best GT riders are more incentivized than ever to make the Tour the focus of their efforts it is less common to see riders take serious swings at all three GT's, but that makes Nibali stand out all the more to me - if we consider a podium at the Tour to be at least a limited success, he has been successful in all three GT's, demonstrating I would argue both a dependability and an adaptability that are nowhere else to be found in the current peloton, with the solitary exception of Contador, and rarely to be found at all, except among the truly greatest riders. Admittedly, I lack a strong enough grasp of the history of cycling to be able to assert this with full confidence, but I think that the focus on the circumstances that allowed Nibali to win the 2014 Tour and 2016 Giro in particular have distracted from just how impressive a rider he is, and how truly remarkable his results in GT's have been.

All this leaving aside that he has been on the podium in three different monuments as well.

Sorry to go on, and I suspect this is going to lack interest for most, but it really is something that has stayed in my mind for quite a while now.

 

[bambino]

Re: Nibali discussion thread

So, I know this isn't terribly important, but it is something I have been thinking about for a while, so I thought I would throw it out there and see if I am thinking about this with more naïveté than I might like.

Nibali has won each of the grand tours, and no question circumstances have worked in his favor for some of those. That being said, he has also been on the final podium of each of the grand tours at least twice. If you think the first accomplishment is tarnished by the circumstances that led to it, then consider that the second would be true even if the other riders affected by the circumstances that propelled Nibali to first had not obtained.

When Nibali won the Vuelta, it was Anton crashing out that made it possible. But he still was at worst the second or third strongest rider in the race, depending upon how you rate Mosquera. The Tour in 2012 did not go at all Nibali's Way, but he still finished in third, despite being pretty clearly outclassed. The first Giro Nibali won was pretty clearly earned, depending upon how much effect you feel the weather had on the riders, but he had already finished on the podium twice before. The Vuelta in 2013 was actually unlucky, I would argue, as the combination of circumstances that resulted in Horner winning are far more unlikely than anything that has allowed Nibali to win a GT. That being said, he still is on the podium.

So that gets us to the two GT's that seem to bother Nibali's detractors the most. If we assume that neither Froome nor Contador crash out of the 2014 Tour, Nibali is still, at worst, the third strongest rider in the race, and I can't see a scenario in which he finishes the race not on the podium. Likewise, with the 2016 Giro, even if Kruijswijk does not miss the turn in the descent, Nibali still is able to overtake Valverde and Chavez on GC, and winds up on the podium.

All this being a long-winded way to say, Nibali is a pretty unusual rider insofar as even if you throw out some results where he benefited from luck, he would still be able to say he had podiumed each of the GT's at least twice. How many riders have that type of result in their palmaries? Obviously in a modern age in which the best GT riders are more incentivized than ever to make the Tour the focus of their efforts it is less common to see riders take serious swings at all three GT's, but that makes Nibali stand out all the more to me - if we consider a podium at the Tour to be at least a limited success, he has been successful in all three GT's, demonstrating I would argue both a dependability and an adaptability that are nowhere else to be found in the current peloton, with the solitary exception of Contador, and rarely to be found at all, except among the truly greatest riders. Admittedly, I lack a strong enough grasp of the history of cycling to be able to assert this with full confidence, but I think that the focus on the circumstances that allowed Nibali to win the 2014 Tour and 2016 Giro in particular have distracted from just how impressive a rider he is, and how truly remarkable his results in GT's have been.

All this leaving aside that he has been on the podium in three different monuments as well.

Sorry to go on, and I suspect this is going to lack interest for most, but it really is something that has stayed in my mind for quite a while now.

Indeed - and as you already pointed, he has actually won Classic and Monument, been just outside podium (and elevating the race) in WC+ was going into at least podium result in Olympics before the crash. No-one can calculate the last one to his palmares unfortunately, but still this guys is most versatile driver in the peloton for ages. No-one else on his generation comes even close, Valverde maybe the closest.

 

[Carols]

So are we finally going to see him riding on Tuesday in Croatia? He needs some race kms in those legs with the Giro rapidly approaching!

 

[Arredondo]

Wait, is Nibali still riding? I thought the guy had retired!

 

[Red Rick]

Vincenzo Nibali is one of the riders who's got insane versatility on his palmares for his skillset. Great climber, bike handler, good tt'er and hilly rider, ok rouleur, and 90% of riders with his talent would be pure GT riders. He doesn't get enough credit for that.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Wait, is Nibali still riding? I thought the guy had retired!

Nibali got dead last in the PV TT if I remember correctly.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Wait, is Nibali still riding? I thought the guy had retired!

Nibali got dead last in the PV TT if I remember correctly.

Nibali was riding PV?

 

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

Wait, is Nibali still riding? I thought the guy had retired!

Nibali got dead last in the PV TT if I remember correctly.

Nibali was riding PV?

Probably his brother.

 

[Rollthedice]

After TA he was on Teide, will start Croatia on Tuesday, last prep race before Giro. If he doesn't deliver a strong performance here I'll start to really worry, Etna stage is too early to start the Giro with a questionable form.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

After TA he was on Teide, will start Croatia on Tuesday, last prep race before Giro. If he doesn't deliver a strong performance here I'll start to really worry, Etna stage is too early to start the Giro with a questionable form.

An 'ok' performance will do. He should definitely win though. The only people who could conceivably beat him are a couple of the UAE guys and Roson, and if they do it means Nibali is in seriously bad form, or has regressed a lot. Everyone else wouldn't finish the average WT stage race in the top 30.

 

[Carols]

Re:

After TA he was on Teide, will start Croatia on Tuesday, last prep race before Giro. If he doesn't deliver a strong performance here I'll start to really worry, Etna stage is too early to start the Giro with a questionable form.

So true! For the first time ever I'll be watching Croatia to see what he looks like. He's been pretty much invisible this season . He needs to be in good shape there for a realistic shot at the Giro. But I can't believe he'd totally blow his prep for the 100th Giro, so I expect some race rust, but shows of form!

 

[hfer07]

Nibali did good yesterday in the MTF stage It seems his form is getting better prior to Il Giro

Highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSNS7XubrBw

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

90% of riders with his talent would be pure GT riders. He doesn't get enough credit for that.

True, I'll give him that

 

[Brullnux]

Oh right that was a lot better than I feared. I thought he was dropped properly but that was almost a 300m sprint from Durasek. He probably doesn't have the shape yet to TT away from everyone and there's no need to do that as you can do it perfectly well on Teide. He is still lacking badly in acceleration, but that wasn't that bad. We'll see Saturday.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Vincenzo Nibali is one of the riders who's got insane versatility on his palmares for his skillset. Great climber, bike handler, good tt'er and hilly rider, ok rouleur, and 90% of riders with his talent would be pure GT riders. He doesn't get enough credit for that.

You have pretty much described the modern GT rider. The only difference is that he also has a monument to his name which Froome, Quintana and Contador don't have. He doesn't seem to take the descending risks he used to take and you have to question Contador's bike handling in recent years. Froome probably is underrated in that regard even though he looks awkward on the bike. Missed opportunity in the Olympics as well as that would have added even more value to his CV.

 

[lenric]

Re: Re:

Vincenzo Nibali is one of the riders who's got insane versatility on his palmares for his skillset. Great climber, bike handler, good tt'er and hilly rider, ok rouleur, and 90% of riders with his talent would be pure GT riders. He doesn't get enough credit for that.

You have pretty much described the modern GT rider. The only difference is that he also has a monument to his name which Froome, Quintana and Contador don't have. He doesn't seem to take the descending risks he used to take and you have to question Contador's bike handling in recent years. Froome probably is underrated in that regard even though he looks awkward on the bike. Missed opportunity in the Olympics as well as that would have added even more value to his CV.

I may be wrong, but I think I read some time ago that he stopped taking so many risks because of his newly-born daughter.

 

[Red Rick]

Nah, I think he stopped doing it as often. He tried to go crazy on the Olympics and it cost him a medal.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Nah, I think he stopped doing it as often. He tried to go crazy on the Olympics and it cost him a medal.

Daughter was born in 2014, since then he won a monument descending, forced Krushweak to loose his head and ultimately the Giro on a descent (ask Chaves how it was going after Nibs) and forced a last selection on the last very dangerous descent in Olympic RR. If there is an opportunity to win by doing crazy things he will do it, in Olympic RR he was going for the gold not for silver or bronze.

 

[Oliver]

Will miss him in Liege. I hope he'll be there next year!