Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Red Rick]

" Psst, Alberto, wanna *** Froome's *** up again"
" Querer es Poder"

 

[jilbiker]

When I saw Nibs close to the winner yesterday, I had dejavu memories of his 2014 TDF win when he seem to be in stellar form early but in a quiet dismissive way. The Aussie commentators on NBC were already dismissing him saying he looked weak today, I said why does this look like 2014 again when he seems to sneak in on everyone early on and then hit a rich vein of form later and crushed everyone,

 

[axl]

He is 10 seconds behind Froome on GC after three dangerous stages (TTT, echelons, murito), this is close from perfect for him at the moment !
The problem is that he doesn't seem able to follow when the bottom of the mounts are ridden really fast, he fears to explode like he did in the giro. Combined to the fact that he has no teammate to help him it these situation, he could be quite easily trapped if the race is ridden against him.

 

[hazaran]

2014 was nothing like that.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

When I saw Nibs close to the winner yesterday, I had dejavu memories of his 2014 TDF win when he seem to be in stellar form early but in a quiet dismissive way. The Aussie commentators on NBC were already dismissing him saying he looked weak today, I said why does this look like 2014 again when he seems to sneak in on everyone early on and then hit a rich vein of form later and crushed everyone,

Many times during his career he was dismissed by various commentators, cycling fans and posters in this forum yet he prevailed many times against all odds. One should get used to it. He is not capable to produce the watts of 2014 but that doesn't mean he has no chance to win Vuelta.

 

[movingtarget]

Bit of a dumb sprint by the others. They were slow to react.

 

[dusty red roads]

I suspect Purito could also be taking on a bit of a Scarponi role for Nibs - i.e. - the joking calming factor. A good ally to have with his local knowledge as well!

 

[Oliver]

Sad to say but Bahrein sucks so hard and they are not even trying to do anything about it? I want to see some real good transfers.

Happy with the win yesterday but I fear stages like tomorrow, the muritos, he 'll lose time there

 

[Climbing]

Re:

Sad to say but Bahrein sucks so hard and they are not even trying to do anything about it? I want to see some real good transfers.

Happy with the win yesterday but I fear stages like tomorrow, the muritos, he 'll lose time there

It’s a bit ridiculous, after the intermediate sprint before the last climb he had to recover like 30 positions on his own.
Waste of energy that could be avoided with some passable helper.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Sad to say but Bahrein sucks so hard and they are not even trying to do anything about it? I want to see some real good transfers.

Happy with the win yesterday but I fear stages like tomorrow, the muritos, he 'll lose time there

It’s a bit ridiculous, after the intermediate sprint before the last climb he had to recover like 30 positions on his own.
Waste of energy that could be avoided with some passable helper.

Indeed - oh how much I miss the certain superdom that helped him to win Tour14 and Giro16. I miss him in so many different level

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

He is 10 seconds behind Froome on GC after three dangerous stages (TTT, echelons, murito), this is close from perfect for him at the moment !
The problem is that he doesn't seem able to follow when the bottom of the mounts are ridden really fast, he fears to explode like he did in the giro. Combined to the fact that he has no teammate to help him it these situation, he could be quite easily trapped if the race is ridden against him.

The fact that he's behind Froome at this point was to be expected with the TTT in mind. Maybe he was positioned a little far back when SKY shattered the peloton yesterday, but I do think his diesel-strategy is the best strategy at this point. We don't want to see a Blockhaus v2.0 collapse, when he could just limit his losses early in the race and strike back in the 2nd and 3rd week.

 

[SafeBet]

I'm pretty sure Delfino will come handy in the second part of the race.
Nibali will need allies nonetheless. Sky is too strong.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

I'm pretty sure Delfino will come handy in the second part of the race.
Nibali will need allies nonetheless. Sky is too strong.

Aru and Vino's boyz.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

I'm pretty sure Delfino will come handy in the second part of the race.
Nibali will need allies nonetheless. Sky is too strong.

Aru and Vino's boyz.

I thought they didn't get on

 

[TourOfSardinia]

It's official Nibali can now out yo-yo Dawg!

 

[Brullnux]

Nibali will lose around 20 seconds tomorrow I reckon. Ideally he'll lose less than 1 minute in the whole of the first week but 1:30 to 2 is more likely. If he's within 2 minutes then it is still possible, outside becomes very unlikely unless Froome (and Chaves, Aru and Bardet) fades immensely.

 

[Red Rick]

If Nibali loses more than a minute it's over already, and it's not even close.

 

[Krokro]

Considering the ITT i must agree. Only hope is that Nibali probably gonna peak in third week while Froome just must fade. According to human logic of course.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

If Nibali loses more than a minute it's over already, and it's not even close.

Contador might go crazy again and drag Nibali with him. And I expect Froome to follow a similar trajectory to the last time he began a vuelta so strongly (like 2012), and fade by the final week. Obviously he will still be a lot better than in 2012, but I expect a similar curve. 1:30 plus a likely 1:30 in the ITT (maybe slightly more but it won't be much more than 2 minutes unless something goes very wrong in prep or on the day) would become very hard but still possible. A long range attack on the Sierra Nevada (a great opportunity imo) and the Angliru could take back a lot of time.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re:

Nibali will lose around 20 seconds tomorrow I reckon. Ideally he'll lose less than 1 minute in the whole of the first week but 1:30 to 2 is more likely. If he's within 2 minutes then it is still possible, outside becomes very unlikely unless Froome (and Chaves, Aru and Bardet) fades immensely.

To lose 1:30 at the end of the first week e would have to lose 1:20 in total in stages 5, 8, and 9, and if he were to perform that poorly than he wouldn't be able to win the Vuelta anyways.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

If Nibali loses more than a minute it's over already, and it's not even close.

Contador might go crazy again and drag Nibali with him. And I expect Froome to follow a similar trajectory to the last time he began a vuelta so strongly (like 2012), and fade by the final week. Obviously he will still be a lot better than in 2012, but I expect a similar curve. 1:30 plus a likely 1:30 in the ITT (maybe slightly more but it won't be much more than 2 minutes unless something goes very wrong in prep or on the day) would become very hard but still possible. A long range attack on the Sierra Nevada (a great opportunity imo) and the Angliru could take back a lot of time.

Take a look on the GC in past years and see whether it will be possible to take such time back in couple of mountain stages. Especially against Froome.

I have a feeling thought he won't lose as much as you indicate to Froome in the 3 short muritos coming up. The only place where Froome showed weakness in TDF was in the stage with really steep and punchy finish. He lost around 20 sec to Bardet. Bardet and Aru though will be very strong on those, maybe De La Cruz as well.

On the final note, I don't think Nibs will lose more than a minute to Froome in final ITT. He lost 54 sec to Dumoulin in Giro finale in 30km, and I think we all agree big Tom is currently better TT'er than Froome.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Nibali will lose around 20 seconds tomorrow I reckon. Ideally he'll lose less than 1 minute in the whole of the first week but 1:30 to 2 is more likely. If he's within 2 minutes then it is still possible, outside becomes very unlikely unless Froome (and Chaves, Aru and Bardet) fades immensely.

20 sec. to whom? It's a climb with 6.5% average with a few ramps and the finish downhill. He'll be fine.

 

[Brullnux]

Yes, it is. Froome lost over 2 minutes on Formigal; in his best ever year he lost a minute on the Alpe d'Huez and needed Richie to take an illegal feed for him else he'd have lost more. In 2015 he completely capitulated the last two days, losing just under 2 minutes in that time.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

Nibali will lose around 20 seconds tomorrow I reckon. Ideally he'll lose less than 1 minute in the whole of the first week but 1:30 to 2 is more likely. If he's within 2 minutes then it is still possible, outside becomes very unlikely unless Froome (and Chaves, Aru and Bardet) fades immensely.

20 sec. to whom? It's a climb with 6.5% average with a few ramps and the finish downhill. He'll be fine.

It's closer to 10%, and doesn't finish downhill. According to the La Vuelta profile it's 330m in 3.4km.

 

[portugal11]

Xorret de cati is the main danger for nibali this week.