Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Red Rick]

Re:

Dan Martin, Tom Dumoulin , Kwaito, Allaphillipe ....and dont forget Uran ....

Nibali looks very strong though and has a strong team.....so its his to lose

How's Martin's form? I haven't followed or seen his results. Kwiat seemed bad at the worlds. I think the course might be too hard for Ala, especially if Muro di Sormano is ridden fast. Uran is a big favorite for his trademarked 2nd place, but I wouldn't mind see him winning it.

 

[Durden93]

Two thoughts on Nibali:
1) this type of performance could win Worlds 2018. If Nibali peaks for it, look out.
2) I would tip Nibali for the favourite in Lombardia. This type of performance would be great on the Surmano.

 

[franic]

Re:

Two thoughts on Nibali:
1) this type of performance could win Worlds 2018. If Nibali peaks for it, look out.

My 2c: Nibali is not going to win WC2018, simply because he's too slow in a sprint. The only reason why he lost last year in Rio is exactly because he needed to force downhill with Henao and Majka. If you look at WC, when does it happen that the favourite manages to go away alone? In the past 40 years I can only think of Hinault in Sallanches and Criquielion in Barcelona. If you want you can add Gilbert in Valkenburg.
My point wants to be that if somebody who is very slow in the sprint wins the WC, usually is some outsider that is left to go (e.g. Olano in Duitama, even Simoni in Lisbon :lol: ). Even Bettini in Athens 2004 had to sprint with Paulinho to arrive, meaning that is very hard to manage to arrive solo once you are a pre-race favorite.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Two thoughts on Nibali:
1) this type of performance could win Worlds 2018. If Nibali peaks for it, look out.

My 2c: Nibali is not going to win WC2018, simply because he's too slow in a sprint. The only reason why he lost last year in Rio is exactly because he needed to force downhill with Henao and Majka. If you look at WC, when does it happen that the favourite manages to go away alone? In the past 40 years I can only think of Hinault in Sallanches and Criquielion in Barcelona. If you want you can add Gilbert in Valkenburg.
My point wants to be that if somebody who is very slow in the sprint wins the WC, usually is some outsider that is left to go (e.g. Olano in Duitama, even Simoni in Lisbon :lol: ). Even Bettini in Athens 2004 had to sprint with Paulinho to arrive, meaning that is very hard to manage to arrive solo once you are a pre-race favorite.

Because when the final uphill km is 15% it's impossible to get away.

 

[franic]

Re: Re:

Two thoughts on Nibali:
1) this type of performance could win Worlds 2018. If Nibali peaks for it, look out.

My 2c: Nibali is not going to win WC2018, simply because he's too slow in a sprint. The only reason why he lost last year in Rio is exactly because he needed to force downhill with Henao and Majka. If you look at WC, when does it happen that the favourite manages to go away alone? In the past 40 years I can only think of Hinault in Sallanches and Criquielion in Barcelona. If you want you can add Gilbert in Valkenburg.
My point wants to be that if somebody who is very slow in the sprint wins the WC, usually is some outsider that is left to go (e.g. Olano in Duitama, even Simoni in Lisbon :lol: ). Even Bettini in Athens 2004 had to sprint with Paulinho to arrive, meaning that is very hard to manage to arrive solo once you are a pre-race favorite.

Because when the final uphill km is 15% it's impossible to get away.

Via Salviati in Florence was 12% with 5km to go, and Purito almost made it. But he did not. Also he is much more explosive than Nibali. I expect to see Nibali on the podium, not on the 1st place spot.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

Two thoughts on Nibali:
1) this type of performance could win Worlds 2018. If Nibali peaks for it, look out.

My 2c: Nibali is not going to win WC2018, simply because he's too slow in a sprint. The only reason why he lost last year in Rio is exactly because he needed to force downhill with Henao and Majka. If you look at WC, when does it happen that the favourite manages to go away alone? In the past 40 years I can only think of Hinault in Sallanches and Criquielion in Barcelona. If you want you can add Gilbert in Valkenburg.
My point wants to be that if somebody who is very slow in the sprint wins the WC, usually is some outsider that is left to go (e.g. Olano in Duitama, even Simoni in Lisbon :lol: ). Even Bettini in Athens 2004 had to sprint with Paulinho to arrive, meaning that is very hard to manage to arrive solo once you are a pre-race favorite.

And Sagan in 2015.

Kwiatkowski might not have been a big favourite in 2014, but everyone knew who he was and that he was a threat. Similarly Zoetemelk in 85.

Also, sometimes a favourite gets away with a group and knows he can win the sprint, so there's no point in dropping them. If Nibali escapes with, say, Landa and Majka, he'd be a fool to not keep them onside until the final km.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Two thoughts on Nibali:
1) this type of performance could win Worlds 2018. If Nibali peaks for it, look out.

My 2c: Nibali is not going to win WC2018, simply because he's too slow in a sprint. The only reason why he lost last year in Rio is exactly because he needed to force downhill with Henao and Majka. If you look at WC, when does it happen that the favourite manages to go away alone? In the past 40 years I can only think of Hinault in Sallanches and Criquielion in Barcelona. If you want you can add Gilbert in Valkenburg.
My point wants to be that if somebody who is very slow in the sprint wins the WC, usually is some outsider that is left to go (e.g. Olano in Duitama, even Simoni in Lisbon :lol: ). Even Bettini in Athens 2004 had to sprint with Paulinho to arrive, meaning that is very hard to manage to arrive solo once you are a pre-race favorite.

Because when the final uphill km is 15% it's impossible to get away.

Via Salviati in Florence was 12% with 5km to go, and Purito almost made it. But he did not. Also he is much more explosive than Nibali. I expect to see Nibali on the podium, not on the 1st place spot.

Via Salviati was 600m long or so. Now it's a 3km climb, of which the last km is 15%, followed by a descent (Nibali's forté) and a few km's of flat to the finish.

Nibali can win Lombardia solo, he can win Innsbruck. Competition will be stiff though.

 

[franic]

Re: Re:

Two thoughts on Nibali:
1) this type of performance could win Worlds 2018. If Nibali peaks for it, look out.

My 2c: Nibali is not going to win WC2018, simply because he's too slow in a sprint. The only reason why he lost last year in Rio is exactly because he needed to force downhill with Henao and Majka. If you look at WC, when does it happen that the favourite manages to go away alone? In the past 40 years I can only think of Hinault in Sallanches and Criquielion in Barcelona. If you want you can add Gilbert in Valkenburg.
My point wants to be that if somebody who is very slow in the sprint wins the WC, usually is some outsider that is left to go (e.g. Olano in Duitama, even Simoni in Lisbon :lol: ). Even Bettini in Athens 2004 had to sprint with Paulinho to arrive, meaning that is very hard to manage to arrive solo once you are a pre-race favorite.

And Sagan in 2015.

Kwiatkowski might not have been a big favourite in 2014, but everyone knew who he was and that he was a threat. Similarly Zoetemelk in 85.

Also, sometimes a favourite gets away with a group and knows he can win the sprint, so there's no point in dropping them. If Nibali escapes with, say, Landa and Majka, he'd be a fool to not keep them onside until the final km.

Yes, I forgot Sagan even though the course and the type of rider was very different. Kwiato (too young, only Strade Bianche won) and Zoetemelk (too old) were not favourites. Actually, Zotemelk won exactly because nobody was looking at him, like Roche in Villach when everybody was looking at Kelly.

 

[franic]

Re: Re:

Two thoughts on Nibali:
1) this type of performance could win Worlds 2018. If Nibali peaks for it, look out.

My 2c: Nibali is not going to win WC2018, simply because he's too slow in a sprint. The only reason why he lost last year in Rio is exactly because he needed to force downhill with Henao and Majka. If you look at WC, when does it happen that the favourite manages to go away alone? In the past 40 years I can only think of Hinault in Sallanches and Criquielion in Barcelona. If you want you can add Gilbert in Valkenburg.
My point wants to be that if somebody who is very slow in the sprint wins the WC, usually is some outsider that is left to go (e.g. Olano in Duitama, even Simoni in Lisbon :lol: ). Even Bettini in Athens 2004 had to sprint with Paulinho to arrive, meaning that is very hard to manage to arrive solo once you are a pre-race favorite.

Because when the final uphill km is 15% it's impossible to get away.

Via Salviati in Florence was 12% with 5km to go, and Purito almost made it. But he did not. Also he is much more explosive than Nibali. I expect to see Nibali on the podium, not on the 1st place spot.

Via Salviati was 600m long or so. Now it's a 3km climb, of which the last km is 15%, followed by a descent (Nibali's forté) and a few km's of flat to the finish.

Nibali can win Lombardia solo, he can win Innsbruck. Competition will be stiff though.

My feeling is that WC and OG are very different from races with commercial teams.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Two thoughts on Nibali:
1) this type of performance could win Worlds 2018. If Nibali peaks for it, look out.

My 2c: Nibali is not going to win WC2018, simply because he's too slow in a sprint. The only reason why he lost last year in Rio is exactly because he needed to force downhill with Henao and Majka. If you look at WC, when does it happen that the favourite manages to go away alone? In the past 40 years I can only think of Hinault in Sallanches and Criquielion in Barcelona. If you want you can add Gilbert in Valkenburg.
My point wants to be that if somebody who is very slow in the sprint wins the WC, usually is some outsider that is left to go (e.g. Olano in Duitama, even Simoni in Lisbon :lol: ). Even Bettini in Athens 2004 had to sprint with Paulinho to arrive, meaning that is very hard to manage to arrive solo once you are a pre-race favorite.

Because when the final uphill km is 15% it's impossible to get away.

Via Salviati in Florence was 12% with 5km to go, and Purito almost made it. But he did not. Also he is much more explosive than Nibali. I expect to see Nibali on the podium, not on the 1st place spot.

Nibs is a decent finisher in the group of pure climbers. He can win Majka, Quintana, Uran, Chaves, Aru et co. In pure sprint. He even won Froome in Vuelta with long sprint.

Innsbruck is going to create trouble to likes of Barguil, Alaphilippe and Kwia, so I don't expect those classic specialists to be there in contest at the end.

 

[franic]

Re: Re:

Nibs is a decent finisher in the group of pure climbers. He can win Majka, Quintana, Uran, Chaves, Aru et co. In pure sprint. He even won Froome in Vuelta with long sprint.

Innsbruck is going to create trouble to likes of Barguil, Alaphilippe and Kwia, so I don't expect those classic specialists to be there in contest at the end.

Not sure he can outsprint Uran and Aru. Also, he won against Landa by few cms in the Giro because he took the last corner inside. Also, in Rio nobody expected GvA but he was there. So I woulnd't be surprised to see some relatively fast wheels there; or at least somebody who can sprint.

In the end it's not the course, but the riders those who make the race tough. Nibali has the advantage of racing in the Italian team, which is the only one who has consistently showed tactical acumen in WC and OG races. But, Cassani can't do much if the rider isn't able to finalise the teamwork as shown in Rio, where Italy dominated and still went back home with no medals.
Look also at the race yesterday in the Giro dell'Emilia: Nibali was the strongest, and Barhain merida rode perfectly. So perfectly that Visconti ended up winning. In some sense, I feel something like Duitama can happen again, when Indurain was clearly the strongest but Olano went home with the rainbow jersey.

 

[Rollthedice]

Oddly enough both his GT wins this year were in a sprint. Anyway, the reason he didn't win in Rio was because he slipped, he forced on the same sector to catch Aru in the previous lap and he made it. Of course his idea was to win alone but I think even in the situation that he arrives with Henao, he has the better chance to win the sprint. As for Innsbruck, the parcours allows him to try and break alone before the last climb and even if it will happen only on the final ascent/descent we are talking of 5km flat to the line which he can hold against a presumably bunch of climbers.

 

[franic]

Re:

Oddly enough both his GT wins this year were in a sprint. Anyway, the reason he didn't win in Rio was because he slipped, he forced on the same sector to catch Aru in the previous lap and he made it. Of course his idea was to win alone but I think even in the situation that he arrives with Henao, he has the better chance to win the sprint. As for Innsbruck, the parcours allows him to try and break alone before the last climb and even if it will happen only on the final ascent/descent we are talking of 5km flat to the line which he can hold against a presumably bunch of climbers.

By the way, I really hope Nibali wins the race. He's the most deserving. But I believe Cassani needs to engineer a massively hard race, a Sallanche-like race where Nibali needs to drop one by one everybody. And that's not very easy to do.

 

[Rollthedice]

It will be very hard, that's sure and the fact he'll be one year older probably will not help. Anyway he said recently that Innsbruck will not be an obsession like Rio was, that might make him more tranquilo.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Nibs is a decent finisher in the group of pure climbers. He can win Majka, Quintana, Uran, Chaves, Aru et co. In pure sprint. He even won Froome in Vuelta with long sprint.

Innsbruck is going to create trouble to likes of Barguil, Alaphilippe and Kwia, so I don't expect those classic specialists to be there in contest at the end.

Not sure he can outsprint Uran and Aru. Also, he won against Landa by few cms in the Giro because he took the last corner inside. Also, in Rio nobody expected GvA but he was there. So I woulnd't be surprised to see some relatively fast wheels there; or at least somebody who can sprint.

In the end it's not the course, but the riders those who make the race tough. Nibali has the advantage of racing in the Italian team, which is the only one who has consistently showed tactical acumen in WC and OG races. But, Cassani can't do much if the rider isn't able to finalise the teamwork as shown in Rio, where Italy dominated and still went back home with no medals.
Look also at the race yesterday in the Giro dell'Emilia: Nibali was the strongest, and Barhain merida rode perfectly. So perfectly that Visconti ended up winning. In some sense, I feel something like Duitama can happen again, when Indurain was clearly the strongest but Olano went home with the rainbow jersey.

There is multiple ways to win flat finish in small group. One does not need to wait for the final meters on head to head sprint. Nibs did beat Uran in such finnish yesterday last time. Nibs if any rider knows his weakness and is really tactically savy to make moves usually the right time.

Innsbruck us much harder than Rio in parcours, I have hard times to believe the likes of GvA or Sagan being anyway near to front when the race is decided. I recon Big Tom, Valverde, Froome and Martin are then ones who he needs to avoid to face in the finish, other strong climbers are somewhat winnable even from group during final falt (should he peak well).

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Nibs is a decent finisher in the group of pure climbers. He can win Majka, Quintana, Uran, Chaves, Aru et co. In pure sprint. He even won Froome in Vuelta with long sprint.

Innsbruck is going to create trouble to likes of Barguil, Alaphilippe and Kwia, so I don't expect those classic specialists to be there in contest at the end.

Not sure he can outsprint Uran and Aru. Also, he won against Landa by few cms in the Giro because he took the last corner inside. Also, in Rio nobody expected GvA but he was there. So I woulnd't be surprised to see some relatively fast wheels there; or at least somebody who can sprint.

In the end it's not the course, but the riders those who make the race tough. Nibali has the advantage of racing in the Italian team, which is the only one who has consistently showed tactical acumen in WC and OG races. But, Cassani can't do much if the rider isn't able to finalise the teamwork as shown in Rio, where Italy dominated and still went back home with no medals.
Look also at the race yesterday in the Giro dell'Emilia: Nibali was the strongest, and Barhain merida rode perfectly. So perfectly that Visconti ended up winning. In some sense, I feel something like Duitama can happen again, when Indurain was clearly the strongest but Olano went home with the rainbow jersey.

There is multiple ways to win flat finish in small group. One does not need to wait for the final meters on head to head sprint. Nibs did beat Uran in such finnish yesterday last time. Nibs if any rider knows his weakness and is really tactically savy to make moves usually the right time.

Innsbruck us much harder than Rio in parcours, I have hard times to believe the likes of GvA or Sagan being anyway near to front when the race is decided. I recon Big Tom, Valverde, Froome and Martin are then ones who he needs to avoid to face in the finish, other strong climbers are somewhat winnable even from group during final falt (should he peak well).

It's 7 repeats of a similar climb instead of 3, with a wall harder than 2x Mur de Huy to finish. GvA and Sagan or not gonna finish within minutes.

Froome has shown nothing has a one day racer. Dumoulin has tried but hasn't had great results in them. It's gonna be really hard to predict as one day races as mountainious as this one are so rare.

How does the last climb compare to the last climb of Lombardia and CSS?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Will be surprised if Nibali doesn't win on Saturday. Im more intrigued by the race than Im usually am this year after climbing Ghisallo and Muro di Sormano, hoping for a good pace like 2015. We can expect TV-coverage from Ghisallo and onwards, no?

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Nibs is a decent finisher in the group of pure climbers. He can win Majka, Quintana, Uran, Chaves, Aru et co. In pure sprint. He even won Froome in Vuelta with long sprint.

Innsbruck is going to create trouble to likes of Barguil, Alaphilippe and Kwia, so I don't expect those classic specialists to be there in contest at the end.

Not sure he can outsprint Uran and Aru. Also, he won against Landa by few cms in the Giro because he took the last corner inside. Also, in Rio nobody expected GvA but he was there. So I woulnd't be surprised to see some relatively fast wheels there; or at least somebody who can sprint.

In the end it's not the course, but the riders those who make the race tough. Nibali has the advantage of racing in the Italian team, which is the only one who has consistently showed tactical acumen in WC and OG races. But, Cassani can't do much if the rider isn't able to finalise the teamwork as shown in Rio, where Italy dominated and still went back home with no medals.
Look also at the race yesterday in the Giro dell'Emilia: Nibali was the strongest, and Barhain merida rode perfectly. So perfectly that Visconti ended up winning. In some sense, I feel something like Duitama can happen again, when Indurain was clearly the strongest but Olano went home with the rainbow jersey.

There is multiple ways to win flat finish in small group. One does not need to wait for the final meters on head to head sprint. Nibs did beat Uran in such finnish yesterday last time. Nibs if any rider knows his weakness and is really tactically savy to make moves usually the right time.

Innsbruck us much harder than Rio in parcours, I have hard times to believe the likes of GvA or Sagan being anyway near to front when the race is decided. I recon Big Tom, Valverde, Froome and Martin are then ones who he needs to avoid to face in the finish, other strong climbers are somewhat winnable even from group during final falt (should he peak well).

Uran is faster than Nibali, there's no doubt about that. But after a very hard race, it's who has more left in the tank. Valverde being the exception, he would beat all of them in a sprint, no matter if he has something left or not.

 

[May0maniac]

Yeah, there was that one sprint on stage 13 of the 2016 Giro (Cividale stage) when Nibali somehow beat Valverde, but usually you don't bet against him.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Yeah, there was that one sprint on stage 13 of the 2016 Giro (Cividale stage) when Nibali somehow beat Valverde, but usually you don't bet against him.

If everything goes well and Vincenzo will avoid the bad luck from Firenze and Rio, I don't think it will be any sprint in Innsbruck for the title.

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Yeah, there was that one sprint on stage 13 of the 2016 Giro (Cividale stage) when Nibali somehow beat Valverde, but usually you don't bet against him.

I remember that Valverde was asked about that after the stage. He looked a little embarrassed and said that he didn't know that less than three riders were in front of the group, so he didn't think that the bonifications were avaible for them.

 

[Climbing]

Are people underestimating how hard will be Innsbruck?
It's a totally pure climber WC, those that happens every 20 years and it's tailor made for Nibali.
It's way way harder than Rio.
Of course everything can happen in one day races and it's still so far away.

 

[Parker]

Re:

Are people underestimating how hard will be Innsbruck?
It's a totally pure climber WC, those that happens every 20 years and it's tailor made for Nibali.
It's way way harder than Rio.
Of course everything can happen in one day races and it's still so far away.

I agree. I'll be surprised if there's a group of more than three contesting the win

 

[Ruby United]

Looking at the course, it even seems way too hard for Kwiat.
It looks good for Nibali, but people often forget how unpredictable these types of one day races can be.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Are people underestimating how hard will be Innsbruck?
It's a totally pure climber WC, those that happens every 20 years and it's tailor made for Nibali.
It's way way harder than Rio.
Of course everything can happen in one day races and it's still so far away.

It's tailor made for couple of guys too. Valverde, Uran, Bardet, Chaves, Landa, even Froome...