Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Durden93]

Re:

I think Nibali has a better chance at Roubaix then at de Ronde. Both are tiny though, and I would think Nibali really needs a wet, crazy Roubaix to have a better than miniscule chance. At the Ronde the hills are just too explosive.

Agreed, but why not try? If he wins either hemis place him history skyrockets.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

I think Nibali has a better chance at Roubaix then at de Ronde. Both are tiny though, and I would think Nibali really needs a wet, crazy Roubaix to have a better than miniscule chance. At the Ronde the hills are just too explosive.

Agreed, but why not try? If he wins either hemis place him history skyrockets.

I doubt his team would dream of letting him even if he wanted to. They aren't paying Nibali a multiple GT multiple Lombardia winner's wages to approach a season like a very fringe cobbled contender. From the team's point of view it makes no sense to allow Nibali to waste a peak, screw up his training and risk injury to give them a chance of winning a cobbled race, when they could hire a fringe cobbled specialist with a better chance of winning a monument for a tenth his salary.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

I think Nibali has a better chance at Roubaix then at de Ronde. Both are tiny though, and I would think Nibali really needs a wet, crazy Roubaix to have a better than miniscule chance. At the Ronde the hills are just too explosive.

In the interview with La Gazzetta he said that the main thing with Roubaix is that it would be really hard to fit into a normal season, he'll maybe try it a few years down the line. He'd probably have to put some mass on for it to get more raw power.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I think Nibali has a better chance at Roubaix then at de Ronde. Both are tiny though, and I would think Nibali really needs a wet, crazy Roubaix to have a better than miniscule chance. At the Ronde the hills are just too explosive.

Agreed, but why not try? If he wins either hemis place him history skyrockets.

I'm really not saying he should try. But if he does work to be good in de Ronde he should cram PR in his schedule as well.

He won't have the experience in either race, he can only really win when hell freezes over, but I think it would say a lot about a current GT champion that they race those races purely because they want to. I think Nibali could do respectable in both, but that would be hard too. De Ronde usually has a bunch sprint for all minor top 10 and other placings, and as for Roubaix I really, really wouldn't know.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

I think Nibali has a better chance at Roubaix then at de Ronde. Both are tiny though, and I would think Nibali really needs a wet, crazy Roubaix to have a better than miniscule chance. At the Ronde the hills are just too explosive.

Agreed, but why not try? If he wins either hemis place him history skyrockets.

I doubt his team would dream of letting him even if he wanted to. They aren't paying Nibali a multiple GT multiple Lombardia winner's wages to approach a season like a very fringe cobbled contender. From the team's point of view it makes no sense to allow Nibali to waste a peak, screw up his training and risk injury to give them a chance of winning a cobbled race, when they could hire a fringe cobbled specialist with a better chance of winning a monument for a tenth his salary.

The main reason for not doing Ronde is it's place in the calendar in respect to GTs, it's very hard to peak then regardless if he's doing the Giro or Tour. Then it's not quite suited to his abilities. There's no point riding just for fun when he's working his season around GTs because he is first and foremost a GT rider. Those 10 podiums in 8 years are the proof for his ability to contest at the highest level a Grand Tour and he is still good at it. He loves one day hard races but until he retires he will always consider a GT the priority.

Regarding Bahrain Merida, it is very much his project so he can do whatever he wants with his race programme, nobody will tell him don't do Roubaix. He's wise enough to get his priorities right.

On another note, riding LBL for the win is taken very seriously in consideration for 2018, Vuelta is certain for prep for WCRR but it is not yet certain if it'll be Giro or Tour. Everything points to Le Tour but they'll decide after route presentations in December.

 

[Nirvana]

From what i know is the masterplan of the team since beginning Giro first year and Tour second year as major objective of the season. And if you look at interview just after the Giro Nibali said Tour for 2018, in june Slongo at Radiocorsa said Tour and Liege and during the comment of a race for Bike Channel Carera said Tour for 2018.
I think that recent doubt are only a courtesy for RCS that could have a very poor startlist next season.
Like Froome that every fall said "the Giro is an option" but the reality it's different, it's not an option.

Anyway i think that if in the spring he peak for Tirreno and Liege like 2012 he could give a shot at Roubaix or Ronde, but the latter doesn't suit him with short explosive climbs.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

I think Nibali has a better chance at Roubaix then at de Ronde. Both are tiny though, and I would think Nibali really needs a wet, crazy Roubaix to have a better than miniscule chance. At the Ronde the hills are just too explosive.

Agreed, but why not try? If he wins either hemis place him history skyrockets.

I'm really not saying he should try. But if he does work to be good in de Ronde he should cram PR in his schedule as well.

He won't have the experience in either race, he can only really win when hell freezes over, but I think it would say a lot about a current GT champion that they race those races purely because they want to. I think Nibali could do respectable in both, but that would be hard too. De Ronde usually has a bunch sprint for all minor top 10 and other placings, and as for Roubaix I really, really wouldn't know.

I don't see a reason why he couldn't do a classics-focussed season. Strade, MSR, a cobbled race or 2, and the Ardennes. He could still peak again for a tilt at the Vuelta and Lombardia, even if the Tour or Giro wouldn't fit into such a schedule.

 

[Climbing]

Slongo talked about 2 options for Nibali on an interview for Gazzetta.

OPTION 1: 2018 INCENTRATED ON THE GIRO D'ITALIA

December 7-19, training camp Hvar (Croatia)
January 21-28, Vuelta San Juan (Argentina)
In February a possible training camp
March 4, GP Larciano
7-13 March, Tirreno Adriatico
March 17, Milan-Sanremo
In April a possible training camp
April 16-20 Tour of the Alps
April 22, Liège-Bastogne-Liège
May 4-27, Giro d’Italia

OPTION 2: 2018 INCENTRATED ON TOUR DE FRANCE

December 7-19, training camp Hvar (Croatia)
January 21-28, Vuelta San Juan (Argentina)
February 13-18, Tour of Oman
February 21-25, Abu Dhabi Tour (to be evaluated)
March 4-11, Paris-Nice
March 17, Milan-Sanremo
2-7 April, Tour of the Basque Country
April 15, Amstel Gold Race
April 18, La Flèche Wallonne
April 22, Liege-Bastoge-Liège
In May or after a break or a training camp
3-10 June, Criterium du Dauphine
7-29 July, Tour de France

 

[Valv.Piti]

The Tour is pretty decent for Nibali, I will be surprised if he doesnt show up. Lets hope for rain on stage 9..

 

[Sestriere]

I thought it was pretty much a done deal that he'd do the Tour?
Referring to the 2nd option, I'd say get rid of Abu Dhabi. Three flat stages plus one hilltop finish aren't gonna do anything for him at that point. Rather think about doing Dauphiné and RdS, as I fear there's too little racing between Liège and the Tour. This year has shown that he rather struggles with too little racing than too much. But they will know best of course.

 

[Climbing]

Option two is way better, especially since we can finally see Nibali racing all year again.
Hopefully three peaks of form won’t be asking too much…

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Long way off but you can get 40/1 for Nibali for the Tour! Sure those would tumble if he didn't do the Giro.

 

[yaco]

TDF route is OK for Nibali - May find the hilly TT tricky.

 

[bambino]

Re:

TDF route is OK for Nibali - May find the hilly TT tricky.

To me Tour route looks more than OK for Nibs. There are enough opportunities for rider like him with instincts to gain time in the first 9 stages, which could mean we will see Froome with a need to attack and not just defend in mountains, which we haven't really seen for a while. Would make the race dynamics much more interesting.

 

[May0maniac]

Yes, the technical ITT is also good for him, the TTT could be a bit of a problem, but the team should be better than the one at the Vuelta and guys like Navardauskas and Haussler could be pretty useful (if they manage to bounce back after injuries and health problems) in the TTT and durning the whole first week.

 

[Salvarani]

I think the next Tour suits Nibali pretty good. He shown he is a pretty good all rounder. Hopefully no crashes or injuries to spoil next season.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

TDF route is OK for Nibali - May find the hilly TT tricky.

Why? Nibali will lose at most a minute to Froome. On a bad day. The TTT is a much bigger issue. I guarantee you he'll lose more on Stage 3 than Stage 20. Nibali is a very decent time triallist.

 

[Rollthedice]

With this Tour route and considering how well he ended this season he can fight for the win in July. In my opinion this is what he should do. No problem with either of the TTs, with Ion, Gorka and Siutsou I'd say he can loose under 30" to Sky and in the other one which is at the end and hilly another 30-40". There's plenty of terrain to compensate these potential loses. Another interesting thing Slongo said is about Flanders and Roubaix. Vincezo would like to do them but towards the end of his career. Apparently Prudhomme called Copeland and told him that he would like Nibali to ride Roubaix, he would then promote the event around Vincenzo, something that was done with Wiggo. Slongo said that now it's too risky in respect to Grand Tours in the event he falls but in the next years they might change the strategy.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

TDF route is OK for Nibali - May find the hilly TT tricky.

Why? Nibali will lose at most a minute to Froome. On a bad day. The TTT is a much bigger issue. I guarantee you he'll lose more on Stage 3 than Stage 20. Nibali is a very decent time triallist.

Nibali is about the best defensive TTer in the peleton, though I am yet to be convinced he's as effective in a hilly TT.

 

[Tonton]

The TTT is the issue versus the likes of Sky and Sunweb. The cobbles are a lottery, but history shows that Il Squalo can do well. Some descents to the finish are enticing. Stage 19 looks really good. But I doubt he will go for the TdF, particularly if Dawg, Dumourain, and the Inca Mummy go for it. That would make him the big favorite for Il Giro...in that case, Vincenzo would be foolish not to go for pink.

 

[ferryman]

The TTT is the issue versus the likes of Sky and Sunweb. The cobbles are a lottery, but history shows that Il Squalo can do well. Some descents to the finish are enticing. Stage 19 looks really good. But I doubt he will go for the TdF, particularly if Dawg, Dumourain, and the Inca Mummy go for it. That would make him the big favorite for Il Giro...in that case, Vincenzo would be foolish not to go for pink.

Inca Mummy? FFS. Other than being offensive because of the obvious native facial features, who is this Peruvian TDF challenger I've never heard of? No need. Stop it.

 

[Tonton]

It is a joke, nothing disrespectful. If I offended you, I'm sorry.

In the past 24 hours, I read stuff that I don't like. Some humor, like the Bardet-panache shirt that I found too much, but I can live with it. It's a forum, not a ballroom, not a boxing ring. Plenty of space in the middle. I bet that I made some smile. Not you. Sorry, again.

 

[SafeBet]

I think this TDF route doesn't favour endurance, which is Nibali's biggest asset at this point of his career. And Bahrain can lose more than a minute in the TTT.
On the other hand, there are a few tricky stages where Nibali could gain time.

Hard to choose without more detaisl on the Giro route, but this could truly be Nibali's last shot at the TDF

 

[bambino]

Re:

I think this TDF route doesn't favour endurance, which is Nibali's biggest asset at this point of his career. And Bahrain can lose more than a minute in the TTT.
On the other hand, there are a few tricky stages where Nibali could gain time.

Hard to choose without more detaisl on the Giro route, but this could truly be Nibali's last shot at the TDF

Yeah, with the second look, the lenght of stages does not look good. Even the cobbles stage is bit too short to make sizeable difference without rain I think.

On the other hand, the general profile of mountains are pretty OK for him, not too many muritos and quite a few long mountains with relatively steady gradients between 8-12%. And the hilly TT at the end of Tour should fit him better than 50km pan flat in the first week, in general he has been significantly better in TT's at the end of GT's compared to rest of the bunch. Dumoulin though is going to be monster on that profile.

The TTT will be interesting as it can make pretty substantial difference to the overall. This and the 8 man teams will create some dilemma to the teams around the lineup, i.e. Froome has to think carefully who to balance maximum gains in both, TTT and train. I have a strong feeling he will miss Nieve (and Landa) dearly as with him he would have one 100% consistent dom to go up all the climbs to very end. I don't see Thomas, Poels etc. to be able to do that consistently over the whole Tour. With Nieve he could've taken one rouler more to improve TTT performance.

Should Nibs go, he definitely needs rouler oriented team to help him a) limit losses in TTT and b) potentially help him to split the race in the first week. For the mountains he propably needs to rely on Pozzo (with Giro in his legs), Delphino and Ion only - which still would be much better than in Giro and Vuelta this year btw.

 

[SafeBet]

Nibali, Ion, Pozzovivo, Delfino, Navardauskas, Siutsou, Mohoric, Cortina wouldn't be a bad team for a TTT on paper. Can't compete with the Skys and Sunwebs of this world though.