Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Summoned]

Re:

Summoned wrote:
If Bahrain Merida does OK in the TTT, and loses say 30 seconds

I’d expect Dennis on his own to hold most teams to around 30s. I wouldn’t call that an “OK TTT” for them.

My thinking was that as Dennis did not win the ITT in the Tour de Suisse, and actually came in 6th, he may not be in form for ITT. Too much focus on climbing/GT perhaps.

 

[Nirvana]

Re:

PDBF is his biggest problem. He might lose more than a minute there. The second week is not too bad for him, with the Tourmalet coming after the ITT luckily. The third week is taylor made for him, with long steady high-altitude climbs.

The Tourmalet is way worse for him, after 95 km with only Soulor before they are going to drop him with only a fast tempo in Pierre Saint Martin style if the train will go hard.
The stage six is not very long but there is a lot of climbing before the Planche des Belles Filles that work in favour of him if the shape is here.

Anyway he doesn't look convinced for the GC, i think a Tour in 2016 style is more likely.

 

[Laplaz]

Re: Re:

PDBF is his biggest problem. He might lose more than a minute there. The second week is not too bad for him, with the Tourmalet coming after the ITT luckily. The third week is taylor made for him, with long steady high-altitude climbs.

The Tourmalet is way worse for him, after 95 km with only Soulor before they are going to drop him with only a fast tempo in Pierre Saint Martin style if the train will go hard.
The stage six is not very long but there is a lot of climbing before the Planche des Belles Filles that work in favour of him if the shape is here.

Anyway he doesn't look convinced for the GC, i think a Tour in 2016 style is more likely.

I would agree, but the ITT the day before could help him, because the others won't be so fresh to go thermonuclear on Tourmalet. Still, it isn't the best stage for him, you're right.

 

[Rollthedice]

If he gets to Tourmalet still in contention I'm sure he will be able to defend. But, he said yesterday that the "sensations" were not good in the Italian championships and he'll go by the usual "day by day".

 

[Climbing]

For sure he's trying to ride for GC, was obvious today.
Of course if he can't keep up stage 6 he'll change his attitude.

 

[Summoned]

Placed himself well to the front consistently all day. So he is not looking for a way to drop some time early on. Probably too early to say that means anything more, but it is better than I feared.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

Summoned wrote:
If Bahrain Merida does OK in the TTT, and loses say 30 seconds

I’d expect Dennis on his own to hold most teams to around 30s. I wouldn’t call that an “OK TTT” for them.

My thinking was that as Dennis did not win the ITT in the Tour de Suisse, and actually came in 6th, he may not be in form for ITT. Too much focus on climbing/GT perhaps.

Interview with Dennis said he is not riding GC at Tour ...stage hunting, specifically TT stages

 

[jmdirt]

Did you see VN hop up on the curb to miss the bike that took JF out?! Nice move (fitness, skill, timing, luck...)? Nice!

 

[AQETUYIOI]

Re:

wasn't him!
https://youtu.be/41BO7_pr_R0?t=18

 

[Juan Pelota]

Is he no longer riding for polka dots?

 

[Nirvana]

Re:

Placed himself well to the front consistently all day. So he is not looking for a way to drop some time early on. Probably too early to say that means anything more, but it is better than I feared.

I don't think he's cabable of losing time on purpose in this way, he likes too much to position himself and stay in the front, even in 2016 when he started the Tour out of shape he was in front in the flat stages, not to mention in last year Vuelta when he was totally crap but still he was in the first echelon in stage six.

 

[bambino]

Strange to feel bit dissapointed although Nibs team lost only 15s to Ineos empire in Tdf TTT. Any past years that would've been fantastic result. I just felt they could've had another 10-20s in their legs without Caruso and Mohoric riding after crashes.

On the other note, the pulls Nibs made looked very short (the ones seen in live broadcast) and he did look pretty spent in the finish.

 

[Carols]

Re:

Strange to feel bit dissapointed although Nibs team lost only 15s to Ineos empire in Tdf TTT. Any past years that would've been fantastic result. I just felt they could've had another 10-20s in their legs without Caruso and Mohoric riding after crashes.

On the other note, the pulls Nibs made looked very short (the ones seen in live broadcast) and he did look pretty spent in the finish.

Yeah I think he was last man over the line.
I'm trying to have Zero expectations but it is difficult!

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Strange to feel bit dissapointed although Nibs team lost only 15s to Ineos empire in Tdf TTT. Any past years that would've been fantastic result. I just felt they could've had another 10-20s in their legs without Caruso and Mohoric riding after crashes.

On the other note, the pulls Nibs made looked very short (the ones seen in live broadcast) and he did look pretty spent in the finish.

Yeah I think he was last man over the line.
I'm trying to have Zero expectations but it is difficult!

He did like a full minute pull in the last km. That's why he was 4th over the line. He just came off the front.

 

[Carols]

Re: Re:

Strange to feel bit dissapointed although Nibs team lost only 15s to Ineos empire in Tdf TTT. Any past years that would've been fantastic result. I just felt they could've had another 10-20s in their legs without Caruso and Mohoric riding after crashes.

On the other note, the pulls Nibs made looked very short (the ones seen in live broadcast) and he did look pretty spent in the finish.

Yeah I think he was last man over the line.
I'm trying to have Zero expectations but it is difficult!

He did like a full minute pull in the last km. That's why he was 4th over the line. He just came off the front.

I'll have to watch again!

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Strange to feel bit dissapointed although Nibs team lost only 15s to Ineos empire in Tdf TTT. Any past years that would've been fantastic result. I just felt they could've had another 10-20s in their legs without Caruso and Mohoric riding after crashes.

On the other note, the pulls Nibs made looked very short (the ones seen in live broadcast) and he did look pretty spent in the finish.

Yeah I think he was last man over the line.
I'm trying to have Zero expectations but it is difficult!

He did like a full minute pull in the last km. That's why he was 4th over the line. He just came off the front.

Exactly. Anyway, I was expecting better from the team. Not bad but not very good either. He looks to have some shape though.

 

[46&twoWheels]

By the way, Rohan Dennis in an interview with RAI (before the race) said they wouldn't have gotten Nibali tired.
we still can't accurately gauge Nibali's form.

 

[Kwibus]

Im expecting nothing, because thats realistic. He is welcome to surprise me, doubt it though.

 

[Rollthedice]

Well, he was good today. The suspense grows. Problem is the team completely vanished when the going got tough.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Well, he was good today. The suspense grows. Problem is the team completely vanished when the going got tough.

I'm a big fan of Nibali, but his '19 vintage is like Greipel two years ago. Talks too much. I don't like that.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Well, he was good today. The suspense grows. Problem is the team completely vanished when the going got tough.

I'm a big fan of Nibali, but his '19 vintage is like Greipel two years ago. Talks too much. I don't like that.

I guess that was in the Giro. In this Tour he's silent like a fish, or should I say shark? Anyway, Thursday is getting closer.

 

[Cookster15]

Dennis dropped 8 minutes yesterday and more today. What does this mean for Nibali?

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Dennis dropped 8 minutes yesterday and more today. What does this mean for Nibali?

Rohan will decimate the peloton on Col de Chevreres before an imminent attack on the descent before Planche from Nibali. Back to reality, if he is not sick, then he, Caruso and Teuns are taking it easy. They will be needed on Thursday. At least that's what I suspect.

 

[Summoned]

Re:

Dennis dropped 8 minutes yesterday and more today. What does this mean for Nibali?

The only way I would say it is bad for Nibali is if Dennis is supposed to be his primary domestique in the mountains. Even then, I would say it is not terribly bad for a domestique to drop time early. The most logical explanation for someone who finished second in the TdS to be dropping time early in the TdF is that he wants to go stage-hunting. If that is the plan for Dennis, then he is not riding for Nibali anyway, and presumably Caruso will be the domestique for mountain stages.

I think there is still a reasonable chance that Nibali is doing what he originally said, and is planning on stage-hunting himself. In which case the entire team is riding for their own interests. Nothing I have seen so far rules that out.

 

[Rollthedice]

I think there is still a reasonable chance that Nibali is doing what he originally said, and is planning on stage-hunting himself. In which case the entire team is riding for their own interests. Nothing I have seen so far rules that out.

Until now Nibali showed a fairly good shape, taking long turns in the TTT, well placed in hectic finales and never in trouble even on the French muritos. He doesn't look like someone who gave up on GC. At this point I'm starting to think he'll survive PdBF and then what? First I thought after the Italian championships that his form is gone and that he will ride into some kind of shape towards the end of the Tour trying to win a stage while being out of contention. But Nibali said that he's afraid he will fade in the decisive week which means he is fairly confident that he can keep up for now. I think that's his main problem, to take a decision. Go as far as he can trying to get on the podium but risking to get only a top 5-10 and nothing more or stop and get in every break.

That's why stage 6 is so important, to evaluate his shape against the competition. Regardless of stage-hunting ideas, Rohan and Caruso must be there for him on Thursday. Then we'll see.