Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

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Apr 16, 2017
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Cookster15 said:
Dennis dropped 8 minutes yesterday and more today. What does this mean for Nibali?
The only way I would say it is bad for Nibali is if Dennis is supposed to be his primary domestique in the mountains. Even then, I would say it is not terribly bad for a domestique to drop time early. The most logical explanation for someone who finished second in the TdS to be dropping time early in the TdF is that he wants to go stage-hunting. If that is the plan for Dennis, then he is not riding for Nibali anyway, and presumably Caruso will be the domestique for mountain stages.

I think there is still a reasonable chance that Nibali is doing what he originally said, and is planning on stage-hunting himself. In which case the entire team is riding for their own interests. Nothing I have seen so far rules that out.
 
I think there is still a reasonable chance that Nibali is doing what he originally said, and is planning on stage-hunting himself. In which case the entire team is riding for their own interests. Nothing I have seen so far rules that out.
Until now Nibali showed a fairly good shape, taking long turns in the TTT, well placed in hectic finales and never in trouble even on the French muritos. He doesn't look like someone who gave up on GC. At this point I'm starting to think he'll survive PdBF and then what? First I thought after the Italian championships that his form is gone and that he will ride into some kind of shape towards the end of the Tour trying to win a stage while being out of contention. But Nibali said that he's afraid he will fade in the decisive week which means he is fairly confident that he can keep up for now. I think that's his main problem, to take a decision. Go as far as he can trying to get on the podium but risking to get only a top 5-10 and nothing more or stop and get in every break.

That's why stage 6 is so important, to evaluate his shape against the competition. Regardless of stage-hunting ideas, Rohan and Caruso must be there for him on Thursday. Then we'll see.
 
Apr 16, 2017
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Rollthedice said:
I think there is still a reasonable chance that Nibali is doing what he originally said, and is planning on stage-hunting himself. In which case the entire team is riding for their own interests. Nothing I have seen so far rules that out.
Until now Nibali showed a fairly good shape, taking long turns in the TTT, well placed in hectic finales and never in trouble even on the French muritos. He doesn't look like someone who gave up on GC. At this point I'm starting to think he'll survive PdBF and then what? First I thought after the Italian championships that his form is gone and that he will ride into some kind of shape towards the end of the Tour trying to win a stage while being out of contention. But Nibali said that he's afraid he will fade in the decisive week which means he is fairly confident that he can keep up for now. I think that's his main problem, to take a decision. Go as far as he can trying to get on the podium but risking to get only a top 5-10 and nothing more or stop and get in every break.

That's why stage 6 is so important, to evaluate his shape against the competition. Regardless of stage-hunting ideas, Rohan and Caruso must be there for him on Thursday. Then we'll see.
That makes a lot of sense to me. Many things will be clearer after Thursday’s stage.
 
Apr 16, 2017
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Did about what I expected, lost a minute to GC contenders today. Now a minute and a half or a little less behind top GC riders, I think he is precisely where he didn’t want to be - not completely beyond hope for a podium on the basis of time loss, but also pretty unlikely to get there. Currently at 20th in GC, which he can’t be happy with, and a lot of serious GC contenders between him and the podium.

Dropping time definitely makes the most sense, but I have never really thought Nibali particularly suited to stage hunting, or at least not from an early break. Think if he wants a stage, he is going to have to ride with the GC leaders, and either be the strongest on a stage, or hope that they will let him go at the end of the stage. A stage win is a stage win, I suppose, but am wondering if there is an argument for not dropping time.
 
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Summoned said:
Did about what I expected, lost a minute to GC contenders today. Now a minute and a half or a little less behind top GC riders, I think he is precisely where he didn’t want to be - not completely beyond hope for a podium on the basis of time loss, but also pretty unlikely to get there. Currently at 20th in GC, which he can’t be happy with, and a lot of serious GC contenders between him and the podium.

Dropping time definitely makes the most sense, but I have never really thought Nibali particularly suited to stage hunting, or at least not from an early break. Think if he wants a stage, he is going to have to ride with the GC leaders, and either be the strongest on a stage, or hope that they will let him go at the end of the stage. A stage win is a stage win, I suppose, but am wondering if there is an argument for not dropping time.

There are a few hill type stages that would suit Nibali ...including if he can go in the break or make a late attack off the front ...Stages where climbs are hard for Sagan & Van Aert
 
Apr 16, 2017
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Watched the finish of the stage again, and I am wondering if he was having a mechanical issue in the last 100 meters? He looked rough, no question, but the way he was riding made me think it may have been compounded by mechanical issues. But I really don’t have much knowledge to base that on.
 
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Summoned said:
Watched the finish of the stage again, and I am wondering if he was having a mechanical issue in the last 100 meters? He looked rough, no question, but the way he was riding made me think it may have been compounded by mechanical issues. But I really don’t have much knowledge to base that on.
No, he blew up completely. I rewatched the moto camera which was on him at some point in the finale. He was dropped and was struggling with Krushweak. Krush got a gap then Mollema passed from behind and Nibali got to his wheel. When that final 24% kicked in he almost got to a stand still. Though not his type of finish, he should have done better, it was just a reminder that he doesn't have the shape to contest the overall.

Right now I think he could finish in top 5-10. We don't like that and we want him to win a stage but what matters is what he decides next. Winning a stage will be very hard.
 
Didn't expect that Giro would take so much out of him. But then again all of those who did the Giro seem kind fo second hand, Nibali, Zakarin, Simon Yates. But on the other hand Landa and Mollema are still going well.
 

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