I agree about it not being an equivalent error but if Carapaz was a relative unknown to Nibali last year he didn't do his homework. He had missed the podium by under a minute the year before at 24 while winning a stage so why wouldn't you be watching him? And Nibali's top mountain domestique finished behind him so he certainly would have been telling him he was someone to watch.It wouldn't be the same error with Carapaz this year, though. Carapaz was a relative unknown then, and nobody will underestimate him now.
The equivalent this year would be watching Carapaz, Evenepoel and Yates, while someone like Konrad or Soler goes up the road and into pink.