Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[ColonelKidneyBeans]

Re:

I agree, Nibali IMO is the biggest favourite for the Tour all things considered at this very moment and there's only 7 spots. No space for Colbrelli.

The TTT might be problematic though, and i'm doubtful about how he will do on stage 17, if it's ridden in a controlled way he might lose a good chunk of time on the final ascent, on the other hand if it's chaotic and fast from the gun he will be very good IMO. But apart from those two stages and the Mur de Bretagne one the course seems very good for him.

 

[SafeBet]

Why is the general opinion on Colbrelli that he's not a team player? He's much more consistent than Gasparotto.

 

[EroicaStradeBianche]

Re:

Why is the general opinion on Colbrelli that he's not a team player? He's much more consistent than Gasparotto.

Yes he is better than Gaspa. However Bahrain will have:
-Nibali: supreme leader
-Izagirres: protected/super domestiques
-Pelli and Pozzo: mountain helpers
-the other 3 have to: be good at pulling the peloton on the flat, be good for the TTT, be good for the cobbles.
I think the choice should be between Haussler (good for all 3 things), Koren (good for all 3 things) and Cortina or Mohoric. Haussler and Koren are domestiques so they can work a lot on the flat while the team would not want to waste young talents like Cortina and Moho working like donkeys. But both are vary good for the TTT, for the flat and for the cobbles.

Probably Colbrelli will be a good team player, but he was never a domestique, is not a Bennati-like rider who pulls in the wind. He's 176 cm and explosive, he's no rouleur . He has never done Roubaix in his life. He's not bad for the TTT because sprinters are always useful for that discipline but I would not bring him.

In my opinion Bahrain will do a good TT, they are working a lot on it and all of their riders bar Pellizzotti and Pozzovivo are suited to this exercise.

 

[Nirvana]

Why is the general opinion on Colbrelli that he's not a team player? He's much more consistent than Gasparotto.

Because we've never seen him working for a team mate, he want to ride the Tour for his personal ambitions but he has no chance against a top level field and he'll be melt in the heat of July considering that last year he was able to do something only in the first stage with rain, then he disappeared. Add also that will be a dead weight to take to the finish in the TTT because he doesn't have the engine for the flat.

Gasparotto is a better (way better) option for hilly stages but he doesn't have problems to be a domestique, has showed last year at the Giro that he can work for Nibali, he can climb better, he can be of some use in the TTT.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Why is the general opinion on Colbrelli that he's not a team player? He's much more consistent than Gasparotto.

I wouldn't consider Gaspa at all. Anyway Sonny going to Tour was decided long ago. He is a strong rider on all terrains except mountains, Nibs rode with him during a few spring classics maybe also got to know each other better. We'll see.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Re:

Why is the general opinion on Colbrelli that he's not a team player? He's much more consistent than Gasparotto.

Because we've never seen him working for a team mate, he want to ride the Tour for his personal ambitions but he has no chance against a top level field and he'll be melt in the heat of July considering that last year he was able to do something only in the first stage with rain, then he disappeared. Add also that will be a dead weight to take to the finish in the TTT because he doesn't have the engine for the flat.

Gasparotto is a better (way better) option for hilly stages but he doesn't have problems to be a domestique, has showed last year at the Giro that he can work for Nibali, he can climb better, he can be of some use in the TTT.

Colbrelli much better than Gaspa in a TTT. He did a good TT in Dusseldorf last year and is much more explosive obviously. Pellizotti and Pozzovivo would be more than enough passengers in the TTT when you consider they are up against the likes of Sky and BMC

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I agree, Nibali IMO is the biggest favourite for the Tour all things considered at this very moment and there's only 7 spots. No space for Colbrelli.

The TTT might be problematic though, and i'm doubtful about how he will do on stage 17, if it's ridden in a controlled way he might lose a good chunk of time on the final ascent, on the other hand if it's chaotic and fast from the gun he will be very good IMO. But apart from those two stages and the Mur de Bretagne one the course seems very good for him.

Honestly, I don't think stage 17 is a big problem. The climb is huge, and it's not like Nibali has a problem with something like long ITTs.

He needs a long, hard day to rock at the punchy climbs, there's only Mende in the Tour, there's descent finishes. The only major problem is the TTT. Or Quintana hitting that peak if he doesn't drop major time in the first week.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

I agree, Nibali IMO is the biggest favourite for the Tour all things considered at this very moment and there's only 7 spots. No space for Colbrelli.

The TTT might be problematic though, and i'm doubtful about how he will do on stage 17, if it's ridden in a controlled way he might lose a good chunk of time on the final ascent, on the other hand if it's chaotic and fast from the gun he will be very good IMO. But apart from those two stages and the Mur de Bretagne one the course seems very good for him.

Honestly, I don't think stage 17 is a big problem. The climb is huge, and it's not like Nibali has a problem with something like long ITTs.

He needs a long, hard day to rock at the punchy climbs, there's only Mende in the Tour, there's descent finishes. The only major problem is the TTT. Or Quintana hitting that peak if he doesn't drop major time in the first week.

TTT might be a problem against Thomas and Porte but we know that along the way something will happen to those two. Quintana will have a personal problem with Landa and then there's always the voodoo side of things. The only problem is if Simon Yates turns up.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

Why is the general opinion on Colbrelli that he's not a team player? He's much more consistent than Gasparotto.

Because we've never seen him working for a team mate, he want to ride the Tour for his personal ambitions but he has no chance against a top level field and he'll be melt in the heat of July considering that last year he was able to do something only in the first stage with rain, then he disappeared. Add also that will be a dead weight to take to the finish in the TTT because he doesn't have the engine for the flat.

Gasparotto is a better (way better) option for hilly stages but he doesn't have problems to be a domestique, has showed last year at the Giro that he can work for Nibali, he can climb better, he can be of some use in the TTT.

Colbrelli much better than Gaspa in a TTT. He did a good TT in Dusseldorf last year and is much more explosive obviously. Pellizotti and Pozzovivo would be more than enough passengers in the TTT when you consider they are up against the likes of Sky and BMC

Colbrelli will be more a passenger than Pozzovivo in the TTT, the only things in which is good are 100 meters long climb like Hatta where even Kittel is able to perform and chaotic rainy sprints.
At least Gasparotto has some roleur skills and experience in TTT since he was part of good TTT teams like the old Liquigas and Astana. And is for sure better than Colbrelly in any uphill finish longer than 100 meters.

 

[Red Rick]

Well at least Nibali ain't bringing Nibali with him.

 

[Koronin]

At this point Nibali should be the out right favorite for the Tour. He'll have a strong team, should be very competitive in the TTT, and can put in a good ITT of his own, and of course can handle himself on the cobbles. Porte will have the BMC TTT team that is still extremely good, however, he always has some issue somewhere. Sky, Thomas will have an issue as he always seems to. If Froome races, who knows how he'll do at this point. Uran, well it's Slipstream so he won't have a lot of help. M-S should be sending Adam Yates. Can he pull off what Simon is currently doing? Who knows. Then we have Movistar and their 3 GC guys, which could be great or could be a disaster for them. They aren't exactly the strongest of TTT teams, Quintana and Landa will have to survive the cobbles without major time losses, and neither are known for their time trialing.

 

[Leinster]

I know he’s not a guaranteed starter, but you can’t leave Dumoulin out of your list of possible Tour winners.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I know he’s not a guaranteed starter, but you can’t leave Dumoulin out of your list of possible Tour winners.

His plan is the following

Go home after Giro

Ride Hammer Series (#ohgodwhy)
Ride Tour de Suisse (#ohgodwhy)
Go to altitude

Then decide if he rides Tour or now

On that schedule, considering Dumoulin does not have the highest base level there is, he might get like a top 10 from a breakaway or something.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

At this point Nibali should be the out right favorite for the Tour. He'll have a strong team, should be very competitive in the TTT, and can put in a good ITT of his own, and of course can handle himself on the cobbles. Porte will have the BMC TTT team that is still extremely good, however, he always has some issue somewhere. Sky, Thomas will have an issue as he always seems to. If Froome races, who knows how he'll do at this point. Uran, well it's Slipstream so he won't have a lot of help. M-S should be sending Adam Yates. Can he pull off what Simon is currently doing? Who knows. Then we have Movistar and their 3 GC guys, which could be great or could be a disaster for them. They aren't exactly the strongest of TTT teams, Quintana and Landa will have to survive the cobbles without major time losses, and neither are known for their time trialing.

Nibali is only the favorite if he's better than last year, which I believe he can be because his best races of 2017 were after the Vuelta.

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah, he has to hit absolute peak shape to win, but if he does he is the absolute favorite. Problem is, Nibali has struggled to peak at the right time before. I just hope more than anything else that everything goes right and he can win. That would be so incredibly great.

 

[Climbing]

So apparently he is doing 2 week altitude training, then Dauphine and another week in altitude.
Then I’ve heard he might do that Adriatica Ionica race and surely the NC, before the Tour.
Both Dauphine and A-I have TTTs, which will be quite important in July.
Lots of racing days, hopefully won’t be cooked in September, but seems an excellent approach towards TdF.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

So apparently he is doing 2 week altitude training, then Dauphine and another week in altitude.
Then I’ve heard he might do that Adriatica Ionica race and surely the NC, before the Tour.
Both Dauphine and A-I have TTTs, which will be quite important in July.
Lots of racing days, hopefully won’t be cooked in September, but seems an excellent approach towards TdF.

My best guess is that he won't finish the Vuelta.

 

[ColonelKidneyBeans]

Re: Re:

So apparently he is doing 2 week altitude training, then Dauphine and another week in altitude.
Then I’ve heard he might do that Adriatica Ionica race and surely the NC, before the Tour.
Both Dauphine and A-I have TTTs, which will be quite important in July.
Lots of racing days, hopefully won’t be cooked in September, but seems an excellent approach towards TdF.

My best guess is that he won't finish the Vuelta.

Yep, riding the Vuelta like Bettini did would be the best preparation for the world with the racing schedule he has, but timing the DNS/DNF well might be tricky, i don't remember clearly but Bettini would DNS just before the last couple of mountain stages no? Hope he gets the WC and a third Lombardia in the rainbow jersey.

 

[Netserk]

I'm quite confident that he'll be better in the Tour than he was in the Giro last year, but how much is hard to say. Can he still be as strong as he was in the last few stages of the Tour '15 and Giro '16? If so, can he be it for a longer part of the race or while having still solid form throughout the race prior to it? I doubt it, but I hope so.

I think he is more likely to win the worlds, and I absolutely trust him to be in Firenze/Rio/Lombardia shape there. I just hope he won't suffer from bad luck. If he is at his best, I don't even think he'll have to attack before the last climb. It's a 10' effort after ~7h. The steepness should even suit him as far as it makes a kick less necessary.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah that Tour stage of 2015 is an underrated win. Solo from 50km out and climb La Toussuire faster than anyone else except for Froome and Quintana.

And I think that's an underrated quality. He can attack a penultimate climb without slowing down too much on the last climb.

 

[ColonelKidneyBeans]

Re:

Yeah that Tour stage of 2015 is an underrated win. Solo from 50km out and climb La Toussuire faster than anyone else except for Froome and Quintana.

And I think that's an underrated quality. He can attack a penultimate climb without slowing down too much on the last climb.

He has incredible stamina when in top shape, that's his most amazing quality for sure. I still wonder what happened to him during week two at that tour, he looked like death at pierre saint-martin, not just not quite peak shape Nibali that can't be bothered, but like he was gonna DNF that stage.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

Yeah that Tour stage of 2015 is an underrated win. Solo from 50km out and climb La Toussuire faster than anyone else except for Froome and Quintana.

And I think that's an underrated quality. He can attack a penultimate climb without slowing down too much on the last climb.

He has incredible stamina when in top shape, that's his most amazing quality for sure. I still wonder what happened to him during week two at that tour, he looked like death at pierre saint-martin, not just not quite peak shape Nibali that can't be bothered, but like he was gonna DNF that stage.

He looked fine before the Mur de Bretagne crash.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Yeah that Tour stage of 2015 is an underrated win. Solo from 50km out and climb La Toussuire faster than anyone else except for Froome and Quintana.

And I think that's an underrated quality. He can attack a penultimate climb without slowing down too much on the last climb.

He has incredible stamina when in top shape, that's his most amazing quality for sure. I still wonder what happened to him during week two at that tour, he looked like death at pierre saint-martin, not just not quite peak shape Nibali that can't be bothered, but like he was gonna DNF that stage.

He looked fine before the Mur de Bretagne crash.

Didn't he also go down on the stage where Stybar won?

I was too busy using the crash excuse for Contador to think of Nibali that year

 

[May0maniac]

My bad, he crashed on the Stybar stage and lost time on the Mur de Bretagne 2 days later, after that crash he was pretty bad for 5-6 days.

 

[EroicaStradeBianche]

Re: Re:

Yeah that Tour stage of 2015 is an underrated win. Solo from 50km out and climb La Toussuire faster than anyone else except for Froome and Quintana.

And I think that's an underrated quality. He can attack a penultimate climb without slowing down too much on the last climb.

He has incredible stamina when in top shape, that's his most amazing quality for sure. I still wonder what happened to him during week two at that tour, he looked like death at pierre saint-martin, not just not quite peak shape Nibali that can't be bothered, but like he was gonna DNF that stage.

Nibali is quite an emotional person, under this point of view he's inferior to the likes of Froome/Valverde. He "suffers" what the media and the critics say, gets easily nervous and as consequence he cracks mentally. Tour 2015 is a good example, he was in top shape because he dominated the Italian Championship one week before (much more than in '14) and he was the best of the GC men in the prologue, then he attacked on the cobbles again but the stage was much easier. After his fall he began to suffer also mentally the critics, the situation inside the team, the fact that he could not probably be competitive for victory, etc. At least this is what it looked like from the outside. Then he began to lose time on Mure de bretagne and on PSM.
However his stage win at La Toussuire was on the level of his Tour'14 and Giro'13 performances, if not even more epic.
The stage after he punctured at the foot of Alpe and he made the second fastest ascent of the day after Quintana I think, he could have gone easily on the podium in 2015, he wasn't inferior to Valverde.

Also at the 2016 Giro he had something in his mind, because saying that Nibali found his form only in the last week is a myth. He was in great shape at that Giro, raced from the start as the main favorite attacking here and there, at Corvara everyone was expecting him to dominate but Kru and Chaves surprised a little bit everyone. Nibali's performance in the last two stages wasn't much different from the one in Corvara in terms of Wattage and VAM, he won because Kru committed suicide and Chaves collapsed.

But since he has left Astana he seems extremely more relaxed and easy-going.