Vingegaard vs Pogačar - The Duel

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Besides those bad days Vingegaard had, Pogacar didn’t really take time on him. So no reason to think he can’t win a TDF against Pogi
Judging by the MTT, the most realistic result of good performances on Hautacam and in the flat TT would have just been to lose less time, perhaps 30s less in the ITT and 1m-1m30s less on Hautacam, where he clearly collapsed completely.

Then there's just the problem of converting cases where he is slightly better in time gains because he will always have Pogacar on the wheelsuck.

But between the two, I hope to see a hilly TT next year.
 
Besides those bad days Vingegaard had, Pogacar didn’t really take time on him. So no reason to think he can’t win a TDF against Pogi

Vingegaard on the other hand didn't take any time on Pogi this Tour except for the 2 bonus second advantage up to La Plagne. He didn't make a single dent. But I agree that the margin is small enough to give Vingegaard a chance if he avoids lesser days and Pogi has a stinker on one or two.
 
Of course Vingegaard can win a tour at some point. He certainly has much more chance than anyone else. But they are no longer equal, Pogačar is definitely a strong favorite.

We can speculate about whether one or the other had bad days or were sick or whatever, but the reality is that Pogačar won almost routinely 2 years in a row. Vingegaard has to improve, perhaps not dramatically, but certainly needs to make a significant step forward to overtake Tadej again. It is possible but not very likely.
 
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The question is: Since 2024, tell me a thing where Vingegaard is better than Pogacar (excluding having better teammates)?
Flat TT? No
Hilly TT? No
MTT ? No
Flat? No
Cobbles? No
Gravel? No
Echelons? No
Positioning? No (Pogacar alone can be at the front easily.)
Descending? Even
High mountains? No
Medium mountains? No
Punchy finishes (hills)? No
Endurance? No
Recovery? No
Sprinting? No

How the hell can Vingegaard beat Pogacar?
He does have better recovery, I think that is pretty clear from this Tour, but the difference wasn’t big enough. Also maybe on a good day he can beat Pogacar on a hilly TT.
But yeah, Pogacar doesn’t really have any clear weaknesses Jonas can exploit.
 
He does have better recovery, I think that is pretty clear from this Tour, but the difference wasn’t big enough. Also maybe on a good day he can beat Pogacar on a hilly TT.
But yeah, Pogacar doesn’t really have any clear weaknesses Jonas can exploit.
He doesn't have better recovery, specially when he is focusing his entire season around the Tour and other guy is killing himself in March/April and can still be good enough to beat him in the Tour after 3 hard weeks. Vingegaard oscilated his performance way more in this Tour. Why? Because he didn't recover better from all out efforts.
 
Last year, Vingegaard's preparation was... somewhat less than perfect.
Yes, and without that injury the difference between them would likely be smaller. But the fact remains, Vingegaard wasn't close to Pogačar's level. I am not sure that even with a perfect preparation he wins. But obviously, it isn't outside of realm of possibility. Just doesn't seem very likely right now.
 
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He does have better recovery, I think that is pretty clear from this Tour, but the difference wasn’t big enough. Also maybe on a good day he can beat Pogacar on a hilly TT.
But yeah, Pogacar doesn’t really have any clear weaknesses Jonas can exploit.

If Pogacar did not focus on the spring classics, he would have won the TdF by a greater margin. It is bound to take a physical toll.
  • Strade - win
  • Milan-San Remo - 3rd
  • Flanders - win
  • Paris-Roubaix - 2nd
  • Amstel - 2nd
  • Fleche - win
  • Liege - win
Then beats Vingegaard comfortably at Dauphine and TdF. Pogacar's recovery is better than anyone in world.

Then difference is greater than what you think my friend.
 
If Pogacar did not focus on the spring classics, he would have won the TdF by a greater margin. It is bound to take a physical toll.
  • Strade - win
  • Milan-San Remo - 3rd
  • Flanders - win
  • Paris-Roubaix - 2nd
  • Amstel - 2nd
  • Fleche - win
  • Liege - win
Then beats Vingegaard comfortably at Dauphine and TdF. Pogacar's recovery is better than anyone in world.

Then difference is greater than what you think my friend.
I can't even understand how some people don't get it.
 
I can't even understand how some people don't get it.
Because he gets rested after LBL, like everyone else.

Pogacar would be the first rider for whom doing the Giro is better Tour prep than just racing a spring schedule. I wonder why that is, except to cope with the tremendous disappointment of winning the Tour with only 4 minutes and 4 stages.
 
Because he gets rested after LBL, like everyone else.

Pogacar would be the first rider for whom doing the Giro is better Tour prep than just racing a spring schedule. I wonder why that is, except to cope with the tremendous disappointment of winning the Tour with only 4 minutes and 4 stages.
Who else rode 4 monuments, 3 classics, and a stage race while contesting in them all for the spring? 5 of those races being a real contest and requiring a lot from Pogacar. Then training for classics for the mountains and Grand Tour racing is different, which has been the point others have brought up. Many on here have also stated or complained the Giro was just a training ride for him last year.

He did only win by 4 mins and with 4 stages, after losing his top domestique, crashing, sickness, and Visma’s shenanigans. That is still impressive.
 
Who else rode 4 monuments, 3 classics, and a stage race while contesting in them all for the spring? 5 of those races being a real contest and requiring a lot from Pogacar. Then training for classics for the mountains and Grand Tour racing is different, which has been the point others have brought up. Many on here have also stated or complained the Giro was just a training ride for him last year.

He did only win by 4 mins and with 4 stages, after losing his top domestique, crashing, sickness, and Visma’s shenanigans. That is still impressive.
PDBF left a hole in some souls and they will never be repaired.
 
Who else rode 4 monuments, 3 classics, and a stage race while contesting in them all for the spring? 5 of those races being a real contest and requiring a lot from Pogacar. Then training for classics for the mountains and Grand Tour racing is different, which has been the point others have brought up. Many on here have also stated or complained the Giro was just a training ride for him last year.

He did only win by 4 mins and with 4 stages, after losing his top domestique, crashing, sickness, and Visma’s shenanigans. That is still impressive.
Many do 4 stage races, or like 3 stage races + Ardennes and then they're clearly gassed by the time they hit the Ardennes. Take your pick. Valverde did 3 stage races and 12 one day races before taking a rest once.

Basically at this point you're arguing that RVV + Roubaix is a harder schedule than Tirreno+Catalunya+Itzulia.

And then the 2nd question is, if there's so much fatigue, why doesn't he show any glimps of reduced performance.
 
Because he gets rested after LBL, like everyone else.

Pogacar would be the first rider for whom doing the Giro is better Tour prep than just racing a spring schedule. I wonder why that is, except to cope with the tremendous disappointment of winning the Tour with only 4 minutes and 4 stages.
Pogacar has really dig deep to win classics - that's definitely more challenging.

He had no competition during the Giro - he was the one deciding whenever he wants a stage win or not, even at 80-85% readiness. You are also training for the same type of effort for both GTs.
 
No matter how hard or easy your racing schedule is, something can still happen in training or during the Tour than has an even bigger effect on your performances. Maybe Počacar has a broken rib or Vingegaard has developed a fear of heights. We don't know.
 
Now its official: 5th consecutive top2 at the Tour containing these guys. Insane stat. H2H is 3:2 in Pogi's favour now.

I told you this rivalry in July is like Santa Claus during Christmas. It's not over and will continue in 2026 Tour. Better Dont hope for some change next year.
I defintiely hope for some change. They need one rider who's in there or thereabouts to try to capitalize on the stop-going and tactical games. That would make for a lot better race as we saw too much stalling between them this year unfortunately.

Will most likely be a Redbull rider, Remco or Lipo. Hopefully both
 
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Many do 4 stage races, or like 3 stage races + Ardennes and then they're clearly gassed by the time they hit the Ardennes. Take your pick. Valverde did 3 stage races and 12 one day races before taking a rest once.

Basically at this point you're arguing that RVV + Roubaix is a harder schedule than Tirreno+Catalunya+Itzulia.

And then the 2nd question is, if there's so much fatigue, why doesn't he show any glimps of reduced performance.
But again that’s majority of riders focusing on stage racing, not classics. They are two different training types to try and compete to win. Not everyone is as ageless or consistent all year long as Valverde and currently Pogacar.


If we’re going to include Tirreno then we should include MSR as well. Three different route types that he competed at a high level vs only stage racing. Then when’s the last time a Tour contender or winner rode 3 spring week stage races? Last I know is Thomas in 2021.

Pogacar has shown a decrease in performance, he’s not able to get rid of Vingegaard anymore and has tried multiple times to win another stage and fall up short.
 
But again that’s majority of riders focusing on stage racing, not classics. They are two different training types to try and compete to win. Not everyone is as ageless or consistent all year long as Valverde and currently Pogacar.


If we’re going to include Tirreno then we should include MSR as well. Three different route types that he competed at a high level vs only stage racing. Then when’s the last time a Tour contender or winner rode 3 spring week stage races? Last I know is Thomas in 2021.

Pogacar has shown a decrease in performance, he’s not able to get rid of Vingegaard anymore and has tried multiple times to win another stage and fall up short.
But Pogi crashed and got sick 😆
 
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