Volta Ciclista a Catalunya 2018

[DFA123]

Re:

Why would Soler lead the chase group in the sprint?

I think he was trying to gap Yates and Pinot to jump above them in the GC. It as worth a shot, neither Pinot or Yates are going to threaten Valverde or Quintana's GC positions, unless there are crashes.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

In all fairness, Quintana was also already ridicolous at that age

 

[WheelofGear]

Re: Re:

Why would Soler lead the chase group in the sprint?

I think he was trying to gap Yates and Pinot to jump above them in the GC. It as worth a shot, neither Pinot or Yates are going to threaten Valverde or Quintana's GC positions, unless there are crashes.

The final climb of stage 5 isn't hard enough to make a difference? It has a steady gradient of 4-5% so far I can tell and quite long.

 

[Netserk]

Re:

In all fairness, Quintana was also already ridicolous at that age

You mean when he won the KoM in Catalunya? (while not breaking the top-100 in any stages)

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Why would Soler lead the chase group in the sprint?

I think he was trying to gap Yates and Pinot to jump above them in the GC. It as worth a shot, neither Pinot or Yates are going to threaten Valverde or Quintana's GC positions, unless there are crashes.

The final climb of stage 5 isn't hard enough to make a difference? It has a steady gradient of 5-6% so far I can tell and quite long.

It might make a difference to some riders - but it would take an incredible turn around for average GC riders like Yates and Pinot to gain 40 seconds on Quintana, let alone over a minute on Valverde.

I think Soler was right to try to grab a few seconds, and wouldn't be too surprised to see Movistar protecting him tomorrow, trying to move him up in the GC.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

In all fairness, Quintana was also already ridicolous at that age

You mean when he won the KoM in Catalunya? (while not breaking the top-100 in any stages)

Quintana's climbing hasn't significantly improved since 23. Bernal won't be getting better year after year after year uphill

 

[Jagartrott]

Hodeg finished HD (with a number of others)

 

[Netserk]

Sagan was already a baws at 22, yet he has clearly improved since then, and was at his best ever last year. But sure, for the very best, they are already near the best when 23.

 

[DNP-Old]

Re:

Hodeg finished HD (with a number of others)

Restrepo amongst those HD's. He has fallen off before even getting started basically. Swimming in bad results, DNFs and HDs after such a promising start of '17.

 

[MuskyOurSaviour]

What's happening with Henao? I mean he's not amazing climber, but still usually would do better than that, he was poor at Paris Nice too. Either timing some hidden super peak for Ardennes or declining fast. Although he was decent in January in Colombia so that makes it extra weird

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Sagan was already a baws at 22, yet he has clearly improved since then, and was at his best ever last year. But sure, for the very best, they are already near the best when 23.

Pretty much. People always say that cyclists peaj at 28, but that's a load of crap. Primary qualities develop earlier than that. Very fee make big leaps after 25.

Endurance takes the longest, and diesels take the longest to develop.

And Bernal doesn't have to worry about peaking for Giro or Tour this year.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Hodeg finished HD (with a number of others)

It gives Valverde a chance to win a full bunch sprint (stage 6) if he wants to..

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re: Re:

Sagan was already a baws at 22, yet he has clearly improved since then, and was at his best ever last year. But sure, for the very best, they are already near the best when 23.

Pretty much. People always say that cyclists peaj at 28, but that's a load of crap. Primary qualities develop earlier than that. Very fee make big leaps after 25.

Some user around here, I don't remember his name, was making that same argument last year. He even posted some cqranking data that showed average ranking points peak at 25.

I have to say I agree completely. People so frequently talk about how the guys that are 24 or so will be the next winners, but they rarely are. The next generation of grand tour winners are unlikely to be the Yates brothers or Jungels or so. At that age GT winners are usually either winning or losing by very little.

For every 25 year old GT contender who is competitive in his 30s there's at least one who is finished at 28.

It's common to see the argument that because someone is a top rider at 22 or so he'll be one of the best ever, but in pretty much every case they simply developed early and don't improve further. Especially prevalent with sprinters.

I would argue Quintana's climbing did not improve at all since he turned pro. He the best climber at Murcia, the Route du Sud and the Dauphine, dropping the Sky train. Then he did the Vuelta and after being sick for 2 weeks he was the best climber in the last week. And he's kept around that level since.

So, going back to Bernal.
Bernal maintaining this level into his 30s? Nowhere near guaranteed but very possible. Bernal improving a lot from this point? Extremely unlikely.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

In all fairness, Quintana was also already ridicolous at that age

You mean when he won the KoM in Catalunya? (while not breaking the top-100 in any stages)

Quintana's climbing hasn't significantly improved since 23. Bernal won't be getting better year after year after year uphill

Andy Schleck finished 2nd in the Giro when he was 21, then he retired before 30.

Gesink was also ridiculously good in his early 20-ties but since then he didn't progress or even has regressed.

All in all, those riders who are super good for their age early in their careers, often do not achieve as much as expected later. Of course, there are exceptions. Even Sagan, who in some way turned out to be as good as expected, has only one monument won at the age of 28.

 

[MuskyOurSaviour]

Re: Re:

In all fairness, Quintana was also already ridicolous at that age

You mean when he won the KoM in Catalunya? (while not breaking the top-100 in any stages)

Quintana's climbing hasn't significantly improved since 23. Bernal won't be getting better year after year after year uphill

Andy Schleck finished 2nd in the Giro when he was 21, then he retired before 30.

Gesink was also ridiculously good in his early 20-ties but since then he didn't progress or even has regressed.

All in all, those riders who are super good for their age early in their careers, often do not achieve as much as expected later. Of course, there are exceptions. Even Sagan, who in some way turned out to be as good as expected, has only one monument won at the age of 28.

Gesink broke his leg. Schleck broke his pelvis. Both never came back from those injuries. Using these two are not good examples in this case.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

Some user around here, I don't remember his name, was making that same argument last year. He even posted some cqranking data that showed average ranking points peak at 25.

Well, that's interesting. PCS data suggests that 28 y.o. riders are the best performers. Although there's not that big of a gain between 26 and 28. But between 25 and 28, it's significant.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/statistics.php

 

[Alexandre B.]

Hugh Carthy seems to perform at high level only in this race.

 

[Anderis]

Re:

Hugh Carthy seems to perform at high level only in this race.

LOL, I had exatly the same thought today.

I've once read on this forum that he reportedly doesn't enjoy GTs. But still he could have been more prominent in other one-week races.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

In all fairness, Quintana was also already ridicolous at that age

You mean when he won the KoM in Catalunya? (while not breaking the top-100 in any stages)

Quintana's climbing hasn't significantly improved since 23. Bernal won't be getting better year after year after year uphill

Andy Schleck finished 2nd in the Giro when he was 21, then he retired before 30.

Gesink was also ridiculously good in his early 20-ties but since then he didn't progress or even has regressed.

All in all, those riders who are super good for their age early in their careers, often do not achieve as much as expected later. Of course, there are exceptions. Even Sagan, who in some way turned out to be as good as expected, has only one monument won at the age of 28.

Gesink broke his leg. Schleck broke his pelvis. Both never came back from those injuries. Using these two are not good examples in this case.

I don't even understand why Gesink is in the conversation. He never had that kind of talent.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re: Re:

Sagan was already a baws at 22, yet he has clearly improved since then, and was at his best ever last year. But sure, for the very best, they are already near the best when 23.

Pretty much. People always say that cyclists peaj at 28, but that's a load of crap. Primary qualities develop earlier than that. Very fee make big leaps after 25.

Some user around here, I don't remember his name, was making that same argument last year. He even posted some cqranking data that showed average ranking points peak at 25.

I have to say I agree completely. People so frequently talk about how the guys that are 24 or so will be the next winners, but they rarely are. The next generation of grand tour winners are unlikely to be the Yates brothers or Jungels or so. At that age GT winners are usually either winning or losing by very little.

For every 25 year old GT contender who is competitive in his 30s there's at least one who is finished at 28.

It's common to see the argument that because someone is a top rider at 22 or so he'll be one of the best ever, but in pretty much every case they simply developed early and don't improve further. Especially prevalent with sprinters.

I would argue Quintana's climbing did not improve at all since he turned pro. He the best climber at Murcia, the Route du Sud and the Dauphine, dropping the Sky train. Then he did the Vuelta and after being sick for 2 weeks he was the best climber in the last week. And he's kept around that level since.

So, going back to Bernal.
Bernal maintaining this level into his 30s? Nowhere near guaranteed but very possible. Bernal improving a lot from this point? Extremely unlikely.

I think some people are underestimating the factor "experience", as well the impact of injuries or bad guidance/entourage. Things don't always pan out the way you would think or hope. And before you know it, you've lost one or two years, which is massive compared to the average length of a pro carreer. A nice example, is Vervaeke, finished 20th today, couldn't follow guys he would have dropped two years ago when he was 22. On the other hand, someone like Van Avermaet, got better results the older he got. Experience played a big part in that, i'm quite sure.

 

[HelloDolly]

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

I think Bernal is at least is one level above Soler, the guy is amazing. Just amazing. Soler is probably a later developer and without a doubt very talented with a huge ceiling due to his TT and motor, but Bernal is something else, IMO. A fair amount will also depend on routes, obviously, but Bernal can TT as well, and there's no hope that GTs will include more time trialing anyways, unfortunately so.

 

[DFA123]

What was up with Dan Martin this week? He's normally really strong at Cataluña - even pushing for the win. He was awful at Paris-Nice as well. You'd think he'd be coming into decent form already with the Ardennes ony 3 weeks away.

I wonder if he's given up a bit mentally. He's got his last big contract at a weaker team than he was at before; perhaps the hunger and motivation isn't there any more.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

I think some people are underestimating the factor "experience", as well the impact of injuries or bad guidance/entourage. Things don't always pan out the way you would think or hope. And before you know it, you've lost one or two years, which is massive compared to the average length of a pro carreer. A nice example, is Vervaeke, finished 20th today, couldn't follow guys he would have dropped two years ago when he was 22. On the other hand, someone like Van Avermaet, got better results the older he got. Experience played a big part in that, i'm quite sure.

And going from baby food to solids as well :lol:

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

I think Bernal is at least is one level above Soler, the guy is amazing. Just amazing. Soler is probably a later developer and without a doubt very talented with a huge ceiling due to his TT and motor, but Bernal is something else, IMO. A fair amount will also depend on routes, obviously, but Bernal can TT as well, and there's no hope that GTs will include more time trialing anyways, unfortunately so.

I agree; Bernal definitely has the greater potential. I know there is discussion about peak ages above, but he's only just turned 21. No-one peaks at that age, and so he's got three more years of improving until he is the age Soler is at now.

Doing his first one or two GTs will certainly push him on another level and also his mountain biking background should give him a decent grounding for any cobbles or gravel which seem to be becoming more prevalent nowdays in big races.