Volta Ciclista a Catalunya 2018

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

In all fairness, Quintana was also already ridicolous at that age

You mean when he won the KoM in Catalunya? (while not breaking the top-100 in any stages)

Quintana's climbing hasn't significantly improved since 23. Bernal won't be getting better year after year after year uphill

Andy Schleck finished 2nd in the Giro when he was 21, then he retired before 30.

Gesink was also ridiculously good in his early 20-ties but since then he didn't progress or even has regressed.

All in all, those riders who are super good for their age early in their careers, often do not achieve as much as expected later. Of course, there are exceptions. Even Sagan, who in some way turned out to be as good as expected, has only one monument won at the age of 28.

Gesink broke his leg. Schleck broke his pelvis. Both never came back from those injuries. Using these two are not good examples in this case.

The heart-issues probably didn't help Gesink either...

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

For example Gaudu will without a doubt be up there, probably others as well.

 

[DNP-Old]

Re: Re:

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

For example Gaudu will without a doubt be up there, probably others as well.

It's useless anyway. Some will pan out, some won't. I mean, like five years ago Dumoulin was a fat ass whom nobody had heard of, now he's a grand tour winner. It's impossible and therefore meaningless to make those type of statements/predictions.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

For example Gaudu will without a doubt be up there, probably others as well.

Valverde too!

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

What was up with Dan Martin this week? He's normally really strong at Cataluña - even pushing for the win. He was awful at Paris-Nice as well. You'd think he'd be coming into decent form already with the Ardennes ony 3 weeks away.

I wonder if he's given up a bit mentally. He's got his last big contract at a weaker team than he was at before; perhaps the hunger and motivation isn't there any more.

It's hard when he knows he can't beat Valverde in his favorite races.

He has stated that he wants to win Flèche Wallone very badly. Even more than another monument..

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

For example Gaudu will without a doubt be up there, probably others as well.

Valverde too!

The big question: will bernal start to decline before valverde

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

For example Gaudu will without a doubt be up there, probably others as well.

To me it seems there's always like 3 riders of every age that are expected to break through and contend for GTs, but if you extrapolate that you're talking about 30 riders, while more realistically there's like 3 or 4 riders who win multiple GTs in any 5 year period and even then don't have to be similar in age.

Right now, there's only 7 active riders with a GT win on their palmares, which includes Damiano Cunego who's ready to retire at the end of the Giro. Together they hold 15 GTs. This is probably low, but Contador retired last year.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

For example Gaudu will without a doubt be up there, probably others as well.

Valverde too!

The big question: will bernal start to decline before valverde

The obvious answer is yes, seeing as Valverde is a spacetime anomaly, time passes around him but doesn't apply to him.

 

[masking_agent]

and on a day like today where the cold is imminent above the snow lines, are the riders still using "embrocation" on their legs and arms these days ?

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

What was up with Dan Martin this week? He's normally really strong at Cataluña - even pushing for the win. He was awful at Paris-Nice as well. You'd think he'd be coming into decent form already with the Ardennes ony 3 weeks away.

I wonder if he's given up a bit mentally. He's got his last big contract at a weaker team than he was at before; perhaps the hunger and motivation isn't there any more.

It's hard when he knows he can't beat Valverde in his favorite races.

He has stated that he wants to win Flèche Wallone very badly. Even more than another monument..

According to Nico Roche Dan was flying at the start of Paris Nice but he got sick...he might not have recovered yet

The weather this year has been particularly harsh and cold...maybe its got to him

Look where Aru finished today.....over 12 minutes down...UAE must be worried especially as Kristoff hasnt been riding well either

BYW ... no way Dan Martin has lost motivation or hunger

But being beaten by the up and coming talent early in the season is one thing but by the old 'wonder' man valverde must really get to some of these guys especially at nearly 38 (in a few weeks) nothing has changed from the olden days

 

[HelloDolly]

Re: Re:

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

For example Gaudu will without a doubt be up there, probably others as well.

Valverde too!

The big question: will bernal start to decline before valverde

The obvious answer is yes, seeing as Valverde is a spacetime anomaly, time passes around him but doesn't apply to him.

it applies to his hair ...and he looks his age or older

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

I don't even understand why Gesink is in the conversation. He never had that kind of talent.

Strongly disagree about this part. It's easy to forgot how good Gesink was in his early 20ties. Racking up CQ points never seen by a young climber in those days.
Really easy to forget even.

I'm still pretty much convinced that if he didn't break his leg (10% power loss in 1 leg) and all the *** after that (heart problems, family problems etc), he could've done much better. Yeah, he might not have progressed much from his initial level (that would be crazy, it was already pretty high), but at least he would not have gotten worse (which he has, significantly). Gesink at 20/21 was same level, probably even higher, than guys like Gaudu now.

 

[Bakkie]

Why Jungels don't go fer the classics? He is not that climber for win something.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

What was up with Dan Martin this week? He's normally really strong at Cataluña - even pushing for the win. He was awful at Paris-Nice as well. You'd think he'd be coming into decent form already with the Ardennes ony 3 weeks away.

I wonder if he's given up a bit mentally. He's got his last big contract at a weaker team than he was at before; perhaps the hunger and motivation isn't there any more.

It's hard when he knows he can't beat Valverde in his favorite races.

He has stated that he wants to win Flèche Wallone very badly. Even more than another monument..

He did make a comment last year that he has given up on trying to beat Valverde. He said something about he's never going to win in the Ardennes until Valverde retires. Then said something about well if he retires before I do.

 

[Escarabajo]

I was very impressed with Valverde and Bernal.
Good to see Movistar working as a team. But Valverde really made it easier for them.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

What was up with Dan Martin this week? He's normally really strong at Cataluña - even pushing for the win. He was awful at Paris-Nice as well. You'd think he'd be coming into decent form already with the Ardennes ony 3 weeks away.

I wonder if he's given up a bit mentally. He's got his last big contract at a weaker team than he was at before; perhaps the hunger and motivation isn't there any more.

It's hard when he knows he can't beat Valverde in his favorite races.

He has stated that he wants to win Flèche Wallone very badly. Even more than another monument..

Yeah, that must be pretty dispiriting for him. I guess he could actually try something else than continually waiting for the last climb though. If he managed to get away with a group of 6 or 7, without Valverde, then he would possibly be the favourite.

But tactics don't seem to be his strong point, and I guess the time for pulling a strong move with the team was with Quickstep, not so much with UAE.

 

[Koronin]

Re: Re:

Quite obvious that GTs will be fought between Bernal & Soler in the future

Bernal can sprint, TT and climb
Soler can TT & climb

everyone else will be behind

Edited for clinic-stuff, Valv.Piti.

For example Gaudu will without a doubt be up there, probably others as well.

Valverde too!

The big question: will bernal start to decline before valverde

The obvious answer is yes, seeing as Valverde is a spacetime anomaly, time passes around him but doesn't apply to him.

:lol: You must also be a sci-fi fan. I'm still laughing at this, but hey why not. My husband wanted to know what was so funny, so I read this to him and he started laughing as well.

 

[Tonton]

...yes very funny... .

Valverde knows this race inside and out, him winning was a given. What I take out is:

1. Very tough, cold conditions. The ones who were competitive are the tough ones. Anyone within two minutes of Valverde today had to put up a big effort in really nasty conditions.

2. Bernal is for real...I think that we all knew it. But he rested his case for the skeptics.

3. Hard to really draw conclusions, as the likes of Aru use this as a preparation race. Fabio is fine, thank you very much. He's in a much better situation than Adam Yates right now (get well AY).

4. Valverde . The Don, The Legend...cough...yes as funny as it sounds, I would not bet on him declining before Bernal.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

I don't even understand why Gesink is in the conversation. He never had that kind of talent.

Strongly disagree about this part. It's easy to forgot how good Gesink was in his early 20ties. Racking up CQ points never seen by a young climber in those days.
Really easy to forget even.

I'm still pretty much convinced that if he didn't break his leg (10% power loss in 1 leg) and all the **** after that (heart problems, family problems etc), he could've done much better. Yeah, he might not have progressed much from his initial level (that would be crazy, it was already pretty high), but at least he would not have gotten worse (which he has, significantly). Gesink at 20/21 was same level, probably even higher, than guys like Gaudu now.

Have to agree with DT. Gesink was a monster as a youngster and he had terrific results by the time he was 24.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

What a revelation Soler is (Bernal was too, but more expected)

Imagine Movistar at the tour, with Quintana, Landa, Valverde, Amador & Soler in the team

AG2R is also shaping up great

I was just thinking Sky will get a real run for their money in the mountains.... and then I realised, they can add Bernal to the tour team

BTW, is it just me, or are we seeing a lot more in-form GC riders than ever before?

Realistically, you could make a list of 20 starters, that all have a shot at top 5, which to me seems higher than before.

 

[Jspear]

...yes very funny... .

Valverde knows this race inside and out, him winning was a given. What I take out is:

1. Very tough, cold conditions. The ones who were competitive are the tough ones. Anyone within two minutes of Valverde today had to put up a big effort in really nasty conditions.

2. Bernal is for real...I think that we all knew it. But he rested his case for the skeptics.

3. Hard to really draw conclusions, as the likes of Aru use this as a preparation race. Fabio is fine, thank you very much. He's in a much better situation than Adam Yates right now (get well AY).

4. Valverde . The Don, The Legend...cough...yes as funny as it sounds, I would not bet on him declining before Bernal.

Oh oh I'll take you up on this bet! How much?

 

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

What was up with Dan Martin this week? He's normally really strong at Cataluña - even pushing for the win. He was awful at Paris-Nice as well. You'd think he'd be coming into decent form already with the Ardennes ony 3 weeks away.

I wonder if he's given up a bit mentally. He's got his last big contract at a weaker team than he was at before; perhaps the hunger and motivation isn't there any more.

It's hard when he knows he can't beat Valverde in his favorite races.

He has stated that he wants to win Flèche Wallone very badly. Even more than another monument..

He did make a comment last year that he has given up on trying to beat Valverde. He said something about he's never going to win in the Ardennes until Valverde retires. Then said something about well if he retires before I do.

And people wonder why I call his competition weak and pathetic lol.

Cobbled classics is where it's truly at (+ Milan-San Remo and the Giro di Lombardia).

Ronde Van Vlaanderen has a stellar field once again: Gilbert (will also ride Roubaix and likely skip LBL?), Sagan, Van Avermaet, Kwiatkowski, Naesen, Nibali, Degenkolb, Kristoff, Trentin, Terpstra, Benoot, Démare, etc.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

What a revelation Soler is (Bernal was too, but more expected)

Imagine Movistar at the tour, with Quintana, Landa, Valverde, Amador & Soler in the team

AG2R is also shaping up great

I was just thinking Sky will get a real run for their money in the mountains.... and then I realised, they can add Bernal to the tour team

BTW, is it just me, or are we seeing a lot more in-form GC riders than ever before?

Realistically, you could make a list of 20 starters, that all have a shot at top 5, which to me seems higher than before.

To be fair, soler isn't any better than he was last year in this race. The big question is if he can keep this shape long enough. The fact that he has won Paris Nice two weeks ago is definitely a good sign.

 

[vladimir]

Re:

What a revelation Soler is (Bernal was too, but more expected)

Imagine Movistar at the tour, with Quintana, Landa, Valverde, Amador & Soler in the team

AG2R is also shaping up great

I was just thinking Sky will get a real run for their money in the mountains.... and then I realised, they can add Bernal to the tour team

BTW, is it just me, or are we seeing a lot more in-form GC riders than ever before?

Realistically, you could make a list of 20 starters, that all have a shot at top 5, which to me seems higher than before.

I am quite sure neither Soler nor Amador will ride TDF this year. I would assume that Movistar would bring Bennati, Erviti and Sütterlin for the flat and TTT and two experienced climbers (two from Valls, Betancur, Anacona, Dayer and De La Parte) for the mountains. However as Bennati, Erviti and Sütterlin all climbs quite well they might even add Rojas.

 

[Red Rick]

To me it seems more like if all the top GC riders start a GT then there's at least 3 guys who will top 5 for sure, and the list of contenders for the rest of the top 5 decreases drastically.