First and foremost, I surely ain't biased towards any of those two, i couldn't care less about who's better or who's at better form ATM, Roglic or Evenepoel.
So forget about the "wishful thinking"
My opinion was only based on the fact that Evenepoel´s preparation for this season was not affected by any kind of injury or recover from injury, on the other hand we all know that Roglic was off his bike for at least 2 months after a major shoulder surgery in November. According the news he resumed road training mid December. Common sense should point to Roglic´s preparation being behind the normal schedule, just that. It's a certainty? No it's not! It's probable? I think it is.
As for your last note, I agree that without Evenepoel Rog would win yesterday's stage outsprinting the opossition in the last 400 meters.