Vuelta 2018 stage 15:Ribera del Arriba - Lagos de Covadonga

[SHAD0W93]

1 of 5 things to happen:

1. Valverde puts a performance in and wins getting back in red.
2. Quintana puts barely anytime into anyone and Yayes still in red.
3. Kwiatkowski attacks with all of Sky who put minutes into everyone securing the lead for Kwait.
4. Yates puts time into everyone again and wins stage.
5. Krushweak crushes the competition putting himself in red.

 

[Amazinmets87]

When has Bala significantly gapped a rival on a climb? It's always sprint in final 200m + time bonus

 

[The Barb]

Re:

In Giro, Lopez conceded more than a minute to Simon Yates, so it should really be Astana who should be making the race hard.

This.

Lopez is already 47 seconds down on Yates. While I don't think he will lose a minute to Yates in the upcoming time trial, 45 seconds is entirely possible and a deficit of a minute and half will be very very hard to overcome. Astana would be foolish to bank on Yates fading like he did in the Giro, which was raced much much harder than this Vuelta has been. Astana has to chase down this break for Lopez. And I think they will.

 

[Koronin]

Re:

When has Bala significantly gapped a rival on a climb? It's always sprint in final 200m + time bonus

Andalucia 2016 (to win overall over Tejay)
Catalonia 2017 put time into Contador and Froome in the final 2KM
Murcia 2017 attacked on the climb, but put most of the time into everyone on the descent. Of course those are his training roads and the top part of the mountain was in fog and technically they were riding blindfolded, thus knowing the roads like the back of your hand would be very helpful in that case.

Thus proving it does happen, just not often as he typically prefers waiting for the sprint.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Break for the win.

If not the break then possibly either Yates or Valverde.

If a relatively high placed rider gets away will Michelton set tempo to protect jersey or simply relinquish it?

Now there is a good question. They kept the break in check today (Movistar did) due to Kwait getting into the break. If someone does that tomorrow does M-S do it or do they expect Movistar to?

Good question. I'd love to see someone like Bennett get in the break of the day and try to cause some havoc. With the size and quality of the breaks going, it could get interesting.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

1 of 5 things to happen:

1. Valverde puts a performance in and wins getting back in red.
2. Quintana puts barely anytime into anyone and Yayes still in red.
3. Kwiatkowski attacks with all of Sky who put minutes into everyone securing the lead for Kwait.
4. Yates puts time into everyone again and wins stage.
5. Krushweak crushes the competition putting himself in red.

I thought the break by Kwia yesterday was just a total waste of energy and it was obvious that the other riders didn't want him in there and the break had no chance of succeeding with him there.

 

[The Barb]

Re:

1 of 5 things to happen:

1. Valverde puts a performance in and wins getting back in red.
2. Quintana puts barely anytime into anyone and Yayes still in red.
3. Kwiatkowski attacks with all of Sky who put minutes into everyone securing the lead for Kwait.
4. Yates puts time into everyone again and wins stage.
5. Krushweak crushes the competition putting himself in red.

1. 5% chance
2. 80% chance
3. 0% chance
4. 5% chance
5. 0% chance.

I would also add:

6. 10% chance Lopez races to the level he did last year at Sierra Nevada and takes red.

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Vuelta 2018 stage 15:Ribera del Arriba - Lagos de Covado

Lagos de Covadonga

That is a somewhat misleading profile of Lagos, as the steepest kilometer is really La Huesera with 7k to go (which holds steeper max gradients than the 13% implied on the profile).

The stretch between km 1 and 2 after the Santuario also seems unusually steep, compared with other Altimetria profiles, that I know of.

Vuelta profiles are, to put it mildly, never very reliable!

Here's a nice blue one -

 

[Robert5091]

5 men or 50 in the break? Maté (if fit), de Gendt, plus ... Gesink nearly won from the break in 2016, so ...

Last 5 km - up & down

 

[SHAD0W93]

Re: Re:

1 of 5 things to happen:

1. Valverde puts a performance in and wins getting back in red.
2. Quintana puts barely anytime into anyone and Yayes still in red.
3. Kwiatkowski attacks with all of Sky who put minutes into everyone securing the lead for Kwait.
4. Yates puts time into everyone again and wins stage.
5. Krushweak crushes the competition putting himself in red.

I thought the break by Kwia yesterday was just a total waste of energy and it was obvious that the other riders didn't want him in there and the break had no chance of succeeding with him there.

I mean, I don't find it likely but I was covering all basis.

 

[armchairclimber]

Fantastic Landscape yesterday and again today. Love Asturias. Been up to Lagos de Covadonga a few times ... it's stunning. I don't recall thinking that the drive up was particularly steep, but it sure as hell goes on for a long time. Yates/Bala for a cheeky 1, 2.

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

1 of 5 things to happen:

1. Valverde puts a performance in and wins getting back in red.
2. Quintana puts barely anytime into anyone and Yayes still in red.
3. Kwiatkowski attacks with all of Sky who put minutes into everyone securing the lead for Kwait.
4. Yates puts time into everyone again and wins stage.
5. Krushweak crushes the competition putting himself in red.

I thought the break by Kwia yesterday was just a total waste of energy and it was obvious that the other riders didn't want him in there and the break had no chance of succeeding with him there.

^^Yes. Kwiatkowski would have served himself better, if he had good legs, to attack just before the last climb. Instead, he had his nose in the wind, then tried a late suicide attack. Got him nowhere.

^^Also, No. 4 above -- looking at form from last two days, I don't see how Yates isn't the favorite to win. He had very little problem passing MAL and Quintana yesterday. I think he'll do the same today -- mark them and Valverde and react appropriately. If someone like Kruijswijk or Pinot gets a minute or so (which I highly doubt) that shouldn't worry him one bit. No. 2 is a possibility -- Quintana, with a little better energy management, could have taken 5 seconds from Yates with a very late attack.

 

[spalco]

I don't know if this stage isn't too hard for a break unless they get like 10 minutes or so, which if a borderline GC contender sneaks in again is unlikely to happen. Teams other than MS will probably also interested in making the run-in hard to maybe shake off contenders.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I don't know if this stage isn't too hard for a break unless they get like 10 minutes or so, which if a borderline GC contender sneaks in again is unlikely to happen. Teams other than MS will probably also interested in making the run-in hard to maybe shake off contenders.

A lot depends on Nibali's training day

 

[Jagartrott]

Pity they don't do Sotres - highest village of the Picos I think. I was there this summer (beautiful landscape), and that climb is pretty brutal. Purito won there the last time.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

1 of 5 things to happen:

1. Valverde puts a performance in and wins getting back in red.
2. Quintana puts barely anytime into anyone and Yayes still in red.
3. Kwiatkowski attacks with all of Sky who put minutes into everyone securing the lead for Kwait.
4. Yates puts time into everyone again and wins stage.
5. Krushweak crushes the competition putting himself in red.

I thought the break by Kwia yesterday was just a total waste of energy and it was obvious that the other riders didn't want him in there and the break had no chance of succeeding with him there.

^^Yes. Kwiatkowski would have served himself better, if he had good legs, to attack just before the last climb. Instead, he had his nose in the wind, then tried a late suicide attack. Got him nowhere.

^^Also, No. 4 above -- looking at form from last two days, I don't see how Yates isn't the favorite to win. He had very little problem passing MAL and Quintana yesterday. I think he'll do the same today -- mark them and Valverde and react appropriately. If someone like Kruijswijk or Pinot gets a minute or so (which I highly doubt) that shouldn't worry him one bit. No. 2 is a possibility -- Quintana, with a little better energy management, could have taken 5 seconds from Yates with a very late attack.

Last 1.5 km are downhill, except last 200-300 m. I doubt Quintana can take anything there from Yates, more likely the other way around. If Quintana plans to take time, then only way is attack at La Huesera, and if he can't shake them all off, then again on Mirador de la Reina. After that there's no place where Quintana can gain time from Yates.

 

[Red Rick]

Honestly I think La Huesera is too late to attack even. Especially seeing as Yates is more explosive. Quintana needs to wear him down. If Yates only has to follow one attack before the climb gets easier, what good is it?

Anyone know where Quintana attacked in 2016?

 

[Laplaz]

This one is MAL's if he finally shows he has the balls

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Honestly I think La Huesera is too late to attack even. Especially seeing as Yates is more explosive. Quintana needs to wear him down. If Yates only has to follow one attack before the climb gets easier, what good is it?

Anyone know where Quintana attacked in 2016?

As far as I can remember, it was Contador who attacked and I think that was just before Huesera or maybe at Huesera.

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Re:

Honestly I think La Huesera is too late to attack even. Especially seeing as Yates is more explosive. Quintana needs to wear him down. If Yates only has to follow one attack before the climb gets easier, what good is it?

Anyone know where Quintana attacked in 2016?

As far as I can remember, it was Contador who attacked and I think that was just before Huesera or maybe at Huesera.

2016 Vuelta - Bertie went first (about 5 km to go), Quintana followed and attacked with 3.6 km to go - video has the moment -
http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/vuelta-a-espana-2016/stage-10/results/

... and the break formed after about 60 km!

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Quintana and Yates must assume they will lose ca. 1 min at TT to Valverde as well as bonus seconds on Wednesday. And shouldn't wait till Friday and Saturday considering e.g. mechnicals. They must attack today, yes, there is a threat Valverde will win it (unfortunately).

 

[Robert5091]

Hope Vino lets Superman fly! Yates to do a reprise of the Zoncolon stage at the Giro, by spending all day chasing down people.

 

[Oliver]

This one is for MAL!

 

[klintE]

Break on a leash, hard pace from a start, Qui takes it
Other scenario shall be very surprising
Lopez isn't that good yet

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

Re:

This one is for MAL!

So hard to be MAL fan....., after last Giro and yesterday's stage.