Vuelta 2018 Stage 5:Granada - Roquetas de Mar 188.7km

Mar 29, 2016
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Wednesday's stage - Vuelta 2018 Stage 5:Granada - Roquetas de Mar 188.7km

Following the start in Granada it’s clear what kind of day this is going to be. Not a flat metre a sight. No inhumanly steep ramps though, so chances are the race will come down to a bunch sprint.

With 38 kilometres done the riders move through Lanjarón, a spa-town in the Alpujarras. Yearly, on the 23rd of June, a huge water fight rages here for one hour. Starting at midnight until 1 am, the streets are packed with people and their buckets and water pistols.

The riders could use some of these refreshments underway, as they are still racing Andalusia, the southernmost province of Spain. Riding on the flanks of the Sierra Nevada, they head for the toughest climb of the day on Alto El Marchal. Yet, the Marchal is definitely not the hardest climb of Spain as it is 14.9 kilometres and averaging merely 3.8%. (Edit- Vuelta stage details have it as a 10.8 km climb with 4.1% average) A 19 kilometres drop leads to the last 8 kilometres on the flat.

Roquetas de Mar was the arrival place of the last editions of the Clásica Almería. In 2017, Magnus Cort Nielsen sprinted to victory, while Caleb Ewan bested Danny van Poppel last February.

stage-5-profile.jpg
 
Oct 14, 2017
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The question is what does the group look like when you get to the top of the final climb.
 
May 23, 2009
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If LLS were here I’d say give him the stage win and don’t even bother riding it, but now? I think a small group in a break, or a reduced field sprint with someone like Sagan or Nizzolo taking it.
 
Feb 18, 2015
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My guess is another one for the break. Quickstep probably won't be confident enough in getting Viviani over that climb to go all in for a stage win, while the breakaway will probably be a relatively strong one.
Then again I tend to overrate the chances of breaks so it might as well be win #2 for Viviani (and just #2 for Nizzolo :D)
 
Oct 14, 2017
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Well it is la Vuelta, so the break has a chance.
Not sure what the descent looks like. If it's technical someone like Izagirre could try something there. Just like LLS not being here, Alaphilippe isn't here to go all in on either the break or the descent to try to win.
 
Mar 29, 2016
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Hot again for stage 5 - 30C but a bit windy. Will QS try for Viviani again or maybe the break will take it.
 
Aug 3, 2015
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Would be suicide for QS to control this for Viviano IMO.

I think Felline or De Marchi will win.
 
Feb 20, 2012
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Breakaway.

Never mind the final climb. The terrain is hard all day. Sprinters are gonna be empty at the start of that climb or in a peloton that's 15 minutes behind the break

I'd like to see the profile of the final climb, but I can't imagine it's hard enough to solo away from the breakaway and bring it home solo
 
May 17, 2013
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Re:

Red Rick said:
Breakaway.

Never mind the final climb. The terrain is hard all day. Sprinters are gonna be empty at the start of that climb or in a peloton that's 15 minutes behind the break

I'd like to see the profile of the final climb, but I can't imagine it's hard enough to solo away from the breakaway and bring it home solo
...for lesser sprinters, it's a gamble worth taking, as the best ones may, as you suggest, pass on this one.

30-40 guys unless the break goes all the way. A chance for Nacer: he won't beat the likes of Viviani on a flat one. Sagan may hang on or make up ground in the descent, be there, but he doesn't look that good at this moment. The Don has to be mentioned.

It could be a meh stage, but this Vuelta is shaping up to be hectic. Giro lessons learned, Yates is very strong, will he and Pinot survive the heat and week 3? Zakarin is done, Nibali, Porte, Dennis no-menace, and some showed signs of weakness today (FFS what's wrong with Aru?), I'm starting to think that Valverde will win this bike race...
 
Apr 12, 2015
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A great descender will win solo from a break. Everyone else to get caught.

A reduced peloton of 40-50 riders to sprint for the last bonus seconds.
 
Oct 14, 2017
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Re: Re:

Tonton said:
Red Rick said:
Breakaway.

Never mind the final climb. The terrain is hard all day. Sprinters are gonna be empty at the start of that climb or in a peloton that's 15 minutes behind the break

I'd like to see the profile of the final climb, but I can't imagine it's hard enough to solo away from the breakaway and bring it home solo
...for lesser sprinters, it's a gamble worth taking, as the best ones may, as you suggest, pass on this one.

30-40 guys unless the break goes all the way. A chance for Nacer: he won't beat the likes of Viviani on a flat one. Sagan may hang on or make up ground in the descent, be there, but he doesn't look that good at this moment. The Don has to be mentioned.

It could be a meh stage, but this Vuelta is shaping up to be hectic. Giro lessons learned, Yates is very strong, will he and Pinot survive the heat and week 3? Zakarin is done, Nibali, Porte, Dennis no-menace, and some showed signs of weakness today (FFS what's wrong with Aru?), I'm starting to think that Valverde will win this bike race...


In likely with a reduced field sprint that Valverde would sprint. He's always shown a willingness to sprint in reduced field sprints anyway and this year's he's shown a new interest in full field sprints that we haven't seen from him in years. Rather he'll win or not will just depend on which actual sprinters made it to into the final group (unless the break stays away). He could win it overall as it's a great route for him. Although I do remember Contador saying that he's never seen a race and rider more perfectly matched to each other than la Vuelta and Valverde. (However, Fleche Wallone may be as perfectly matched with Valverde as la Vuelta is.)
 
Oct 14, 2017
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movingtarget said:
Probably a break. If it's another hot day the bunch will probably do what they did yesterday.

It's supposed to be another hot day.
 
Apr 12, 2015
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Is a stage win for Kwiatkowski possible? Could be fun to watch the red jersey sprint for a stage win.
 
May 12, 2015
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SHAD0W93 said:
Valverde or break to win.

Bala win is unlikely but not infeasible. Here's how it could play out: Attacks on climb lead to a select group cresting the summit and holding off the chasers until the finale. Valverde obviously has the best sprint amongst the specialist climbers.

I must say I don't forsee a select group of climbers holding off a hard-charging peloton through 6km of pan flat parcours. Ideally the peloton is scattered throughout the climb and is unable to adequately coalesce into an adequate chase group on the descent.
 
Apr 14, 2009
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Koronin said:
movingtarget said:
Probably a break. If it's another hot day the bunch will probably do what they did yesterday.

It's supposed to be another hot day.

Yes, I see it'll again be in the mid to high 30s. Hard stuff.

Somewhat similar, both in weather and stage profile, to the blazingly hot stage that Valerio Conti won two years ago. He's my pick.
 
Mar 6, 2011
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That 5k of flat at the end will be unappealing for anyone looking to gain time on the descent. I suspect those saying the break will be allowed to go are right.

Having a punt at picking who might stick from the breakaway I'm going to go with Cataldo to win.
 
Aug 20, 2017
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Velolover2 said:
Is a stage win for Kwiatkowski possible? Could be fun to watch the red jersey sprint for a stage win.
Could be fun to watch his win in Ponferrada style.. ;)
 
Feb 1, 2011
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As usual in the Vuelta, I would expect the stage to be harder than the profile looks (although it doesn't look that easy to me anyway). Neither Sagan nor Viviani or Bouhanni will win this.
 
Mar 29, 2016
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It could be one big breakaway group if nearly all teams think they're in with a chance - which might mess up Maté's attempt to win the KOM.
 
Sep 16, 2009
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Robert5091 said:
It could be one big breakaway group if nearly all teams think they're in with a chance - which might mess up Maté's attempt to win the KOM.

8 points wont mess it up
 

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