Vuelta a España Alcalá de Guadaíra - Marbella 173.7km

[The Hitch]

Vuelta a España Alcalá de Guadaíra - Marbella 173.7km

Not a bad stage for a stage 2. Heat could play big part.

 

[roundabout]

Doesn't look that bad on the forecast

http://www.lavuelta.com/10/imgtiempo/etp2.gif

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Err, no offense, but if you're going to do the stage threads, use decent pics.

The official website profiles and maps are a little more detailed than the 10x10 jpegs you posted.


Many thanks for editing!


Cav to hold on an win.

 

[Moondance]

Hmmmm... It's not very steep, but there's still 1100m of climbing.

Will not be an easy day at the office for the sprinters... I doubt every single one will make it to the line with the first group... Although Cav probably will with the help of his friends.

 

[The Hitch]

Does anyone have a link to the Lequip ratings for the vuelta? Where they give every potential challenger a score out of 5 stars. It was very interesting read when they did it for the giro.

 

[icefire]

I'd just suggest to use the official Vuelta pics from its web site

 

[Cobblestoned]

Hard to pick a winner here.

I bet on someone like Roche or Kreder, perhaps Freire if he wants

 

[craig1985]

Finish line is a little bit too far from the descent for mine, so whilst some mad kamikaze rider will attack and try to solo on the descent, he'll be picked up on the run-in from the line. I'd love to see a break do this, but I think Cav will wrap this up.

 

[Barrus]

Finish line is a little bit too far from the descent for mine, so whilst some mad kamikaze rider will attack and try to solo on the descent, he'll be picked up on the run-in from the line. I'd love to see a break do this, but I think Cav will wrap this up.

Part of me makes me wonder if Cav will still be here, as with the heat, and probably attempts from the Spanish teams, and the teams without any GC, or sprinters, hopes trying to really make the race hard. At least, I hope they'll try to make the race hard.

 

[craig1985]

I guess HTC do have Goss as a back up if Cav does get dropped, and a true test would be if Cav is indeed dropped, and HTC have to chase like mad to get him back into the peloton, since the other sprinters teams will be driving like mad so HTC don't get back on, or if they do, they have wasted a lot of energy so HTC will struggle to give him a strong lead-out. But my head is still going for a Cav victory.

Of course Andalucía-Cajasur will be very determined to do put in a strong ride, or even go for the upset victory.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Does anyone have a link to the Lequip ratings for the vuelta? Where they give every potential challenger a score out of 5 stars. It was very interesting read when they did it for the giro.

I can't find it but DH said Menchov got 5 stars from them, while the Schlecks and Nibali got 4. Sastre was only given 2. I can't remember the 3 starers, but I'd guess Anton, Mosquera etc....

Cav did the hilly Lombardy week one dayers for prep, so it looks like he can get over these lumps and probably retain red for a further day.
I can't see him making it over the 16km, first cat, tomorrow, though!

Not quite the same as your average Tour sprint stage, is it?
More like a stage where the French go ape sh!t,
chasing the KOM jersey over 5 or 6 catagorised climbs.
In the Vuelta, they get one.

 

[Sophistic]

Even if he gets over the 1st cat climb tomorrow, the last 1,8km are at 5%, so he wouldnt take the win anyway. I even doubt that it will come down to a mass sprint today, the course definietly gives a lot of reasons to attack.

 

[Frosty]

If Cav does get dropped then Columbia may keep Goss up there to try to keep the jersey as well as go for the sprint. They may want to keep a climber up there too to try and keep it for the day after, ie Siutsou, Peter Velits, van Garderen. Could be an interesting problem if he is quite a way off the back.

Columbia will have to lead the peloton as Cav is in the lead. They will want to keep the break in check but some teams are likely to push the pace on the harder sections to tire Cav out. Apart from the better climbers, ie Freire, Hushovd, we could see teams like Lotto trying to drop the sprinters to give van Avermaet a chance.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

Descending skills could come into play today, as the profile suggests the descend ends about 7-8 kms from the finish line. If someone loses 30-45 seconds descending, it could be difficult to get it back.

1. Petacchi
2. Hushovd
3. Freire

Depending on how hard the stage will be - if it's hard enough, Cav, Farrar etc. might be dropped.

 

[Polyarmour]

If Cav gets dropped on this stage he has no hope at the Worlds

 

[auscyclefan94]

Part of me makes me wonder if Cav will still be here, as with the heat, and probably attempts from the Spanish teams, and the teams without any GC, or sprinters, hopes trying to really make the race hard. At least, I hope they'll try to make the race hard.

That's what I am hoping!

Cav did the hilly Lombardy week one dayers for prep, so it looks like he can get over these lumps and probably retain red for a further day.
I can't see him making it over the 16km, first cat, tomorrow, though!

Not quite the same as your average Tour sprint stage, is it?
More like a stage where the French go ape sh!t,
chasing the KOM jersey over 5 or 6 catagorised climbs.
In the Vuelta, they get one.

Yes but the race he was actually with the leaders was bernocchi which was a sprinters race with no hills whatsoever.

prudhomme should take a good look at this stage and try to include more stages like this in the tour.

personally I think Gilbert may have a go along with some riders from andalucia. I think cav and some of the other sprinters may struggle today and some teams will put the hammer down on the climbs. My pick will be Greg van avermaet (i know it is a bit outside the square).

SBS are actually showing a live feed on the net I think with Matt Keenan commentating. If you dislike Harmon you should go with him. He is excellent.

 

[Spare Tyre]

/snipped

SBS are actually showing a live feed on the net I think with Matt Keenan commentating. If you dislike Harmon you should go with him. He is excellent.

According to this guide it will be on the TV from midnight til 2am:

http://www.yourtv.com.au/guide/tomorrow/early/

 

[kukiniloa]

Cav a no brainer?

The question is how much does HTC-Columbia want it? The profile shows a fair amount of downhill so it's a lot more than 1200m of climbing. While teams are unlikely to underestimate this it still is a fair amount of climbing for the second day. So I'll have to go with a breakaway won by a Spanish rider who finished the Tour like Barredo, Sastre, or Anton. but not if they're riding for GC, obviously...

 

[kjetilraknerud]

Anton did finish the Tour, but that was in 2009

 

[Mellow Velo]

Yes but the race he was actually with the leaders was bernocchi which was a sprinters race with no hills whatsoever.

Huh?
Unlike you, I watched the Coppa Bernocchi. No hills? What's 5 times over the Piccolo Stelvio, then?
He also rode the Tre Valli Varesine, which certainly wasn't flat.

 

[kjetilraknerud]

Break of the day:

Javier Ramirez Abeja (Andalucia)
Mickael Buffaz (Cofidis)
Johnnie Walker (Footon) Named after the whisky?
Mickael Delage (Lotto)

They have around two minutes.

Edit: almost five minutes now

 

[icefire]

Breakaway advantage grows from 5 to 7 minutes when the road starts going uphill

 

[Andrichuk]

Breakaway advantage grows from 5 to 7 minutes when the road starts going uphill

I like how that sounds!

When does live coverage start?

 

[Moondance]

TV Coverage starts at 1600 CET.

Also gap down to 6'15 now from a high of almost 7.... The HTC stangling of the race has begun.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Buffaz crashed and has abandoned with a broken collarbone. HTC are still strangling the gap, because they hate anything that is entertaining about cycling.