Vuelta a España - Stage 15 Solares - Lagos de Covadonga 187.3km

[The Hitch]

Vuelta a España - Stage 15 Solares - Lagos de Covadonga 187.3km

stage 15:
Mosqueras Destiny

Bring it on.

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Today's stage hasn't even ended yet, so isn't this a bit early?

 

[luckyboy]

Hoping Mosquera, Rodriguez and maybe Tondo will put the hurt on Nibali. Be good if Mosq gets the win and bonus seconds over Rodriguez too. Should be a good few days

 

[roundabout]

Weather forecast says rain on the stage and fog on the climb. I'm backing Mosquera

 

[Sasquatch]

Mosquera needs this longer climb. Should be him.

Again, I would expect a battle of three between Nibali, Rodriguez and Mosquera.

 

[jens_attacks]

spanish guys will unite and will blast nibali's asss.

1.Mosquera
2.Rodriguez
3.Plaza
4.Tondo
5.Nibali

if they don't,nibali has a gt win.

 

[hrotha]

Mosquera should win this with relative ease. Nibali'd better get into the right frame of mind to pace himself and not try to follow him. If what we saw in Pal was not an accident, I don't see Purito doing better than him in this kind of climb.

Barring a breakaway:
1 - Mosquera
2 - Fränk Schleck
then Nibali, Purito, Moncoutié
Tondo to lose a little bit

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Normally Mosquera must be able to win this, if there is no breakaway ahead
So without a break

1 Mosquera
2 Tondo
3 Rodriguez
4 Nibali
5 F.Schleck

 

[luckyboy]

1. Mosquera
2. Tondo
3. Rodriguez
4. Nibali
5. Plaza/Uran

 

[sublimit]

1 Mosquera
2 Nibali
3 Plaza
4 Tondo.
5 Rodriguez

 

[Kwibus]

Normally... normally... it would be Mosquera.
Timegaps could be pretty nice, allthough before the climb it isn't very tough.

I'd say with 3 more very hard MTF there is absolutely nothing certain yet. NIbali and Rodriguez can easily lose a few minutes in any of these stages. Same goes for pretty much everyone in the top 10. Except maybe Mosquera.. Then again I find it hard to believe he will win the Vuelta. I really grant him the win though.

 

[Zoncolan]

I doubt we will see huge gaps tomorrow. Monday should be a different story though, with two tough climbs preceding the final one.

Hoping for Mosquera to close the gap. F. Schleck gets a top 3 finish on the stage.

Tommy D. hangs tough, only to lose 7 minutes on Cotobello.

 

[Viskovitz]

The profile of Lagos de Covadonga:

http://www.altimetrias.net/aspbk/verPuerto.asp?id=335

 

[The Hitch]

From what everyone is saying, this is do or die time for Ezequiel. It is the moment towards which his entire career has been building up.

You (plural) think maybe he was saving himself a bit on the climb today? not going after nibali or purito? Doing it at his own pace so that he can go all guns blazing tomorow?

 

[The Hitch]

spanish guys will unite and will blast nibali's asss.

Now your talking

 

[Sophistic]

Puh, thats a tough one, the back to back effort doesnt favor Nibali, the length speaks against Rodriguez and the steepness might be too much for Mosquera...

 

[Zoncolan]

A climb being steep isn't a problem for Mosquera (think La Pandera 2009). A climb being short and steep is where he struggles.
Again, no big gaps tomorrow. Really big ones on Monday.

 

[El Pistolero]

If Mosquera keeps up with the same strategy then he'll lose time on this stage.

I honestly don't have a clue who will win this one. Mosquera and Nibali seem to be the best climbers, so unless a breakaway wins it has got to be one of these two.

 

[taiwan]

Rodriguez only needs 4" one way or the other to get back into the red jersey. The little dip in the last couple of k makes it more likely for a few to finish together IMO and Purito has a sprint. However if someone stays away I'd guess Mosquera.

 

[royalpig180]

Rodriguez only needs 4" one way or the other to get back into the red jersey. The little dip in the last couple of k makes it more likely for a few to finish together IMO and Purito has a sprint. However if someone stays away I'd guess Mosquera.

But the climb is tought enough that a lone leader (Mosquera) can get a decent enough gap to hold on until the finish.

1. Mosquera
2. Nibali (about 30 seconds back)
3. Tondo (w/Nibali)

Rodriguez repeats his Andorra performance, falls about a minute and a half back


Here's cyclingnews' prediction:
"For now, however, the stage is set for a Nibali-Rodriguez battle on the Lagos de Covadonga"
They're crazy! I see a mosquera/nibali battle (not much of a battle eh?)

 

[jens_attacks]

how early will attack mosquera?he needs big time.

 

[Frosty]

Moncoutie mentioned that he fancied this stage. Cant imagine him winning but if the others all blow up trying to drop each other then he could spring a surprise.

 

[vcampbell]

how early will attack mosquera?he needs big time.

It's just partly true. He needs big time, but he has got 3 stages to do it. First tomorrow, then Monday, and at the end on Bola del Mundo. I think tomorrow first he needs to go to Nibali in GC as near as possible. Monday take the red jersey with a one minute lead, or more. When it's done, then he must minimize his lost in the ITT. I think it will be the most important stage. If after it he will be only a minute (or less) behind Nibali, then on Bola del Mundo he can win this Vuelta, if it will be more, then I think it's nearly impossible.
But we will see because everything can happen as we saw today (Anton).

 

[icefire]

The climb became an instant success when it was done for the first time in 1983 and Hinault, who lost more than one minute to Lejarreta, said that it could stand comparison with Alpe d'Huez.

From past visits to this climb:
Attacks only do real damage if done around km 6 and the gap is consolidated before the first flat section after km 7.
If it is the only climb in the stage, 10 men enter within 1 minute of the winner. That may be good to keep the drama for longer. But then, I thought Andorra would be a 10 men bunch sprint and I was wrong. This is not a Vuelta where contenders go hand in hand looking at each other waiting forever till someone attacks.

I see a few posters dismissing Purito for this one after his performance in Andorra and describing him as a 'mountain sprinter'. He says he made a mistake then and he has proved it with his comeback in Peña Cabarga. He was 3rd in the Tourmalet stage, not a climb for a 'mountain sprinter'. How long he can sustain his form is the unknown, but after the withdrawal of Antón, he and Mosquera are probably the best in the race for this kind of long climbs with sustained steep gradients. Nibali needs to learn how to use his brain for climbing with them.

 

[Escarabajo]

List of winners from Wiki:

Year Name Country
1983 Marino Lejarreta Spain
1984 Raimund Dietzen Germany
1985 Pedro Delgado Spain
1986 Robert Millar United Kingdom
1987 Lucho Herrera Colombia
1989 Alvaro Pino Spain
1991 Lucho Herrera Colombia
1992 Pedro Delgado Spain
1993 Oliverio Rincón Colombia
1994 Laurent Jalabert France
1996 Laurent Jalabert France
1997 Pavel Tonkov Russia
2000 Andrei Zintchenko Russia
2001 Juan Miguel Mercado Spain
2005 Eladio Jimenez Sanchez Spain
2007 Vladimir Efimkin Russia
2010 ??? Put your Name

My avatar has won it twice.