Vuelta a España - Stage 17 - Peñafiel individual time trial, 46 km

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Dudes, do I need to repost?

2008, Ciudad Real, 42km, dead flat

1. [USA] LEIPHEIMER Levi AST 50'57" 70
2. [FRA] CHAVANEL Sylvain COF 12" 40
3. [ITA] QUINZIATO Manuel LIQ 33" 25
4. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 49" 15
5. [ESP] VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro GCE 59" 10
6. [BEL] VAN GOOLEN Jurgen CSC 01'06" 7
7. [DEN] BLAUDZUN Michael CSC 01'07" 5
8. [SVK] VELITS Martin MRM 01'15" 3
9. [BEL] CORNU Dominique SIL 01'19" 2
10. [GER] LANG Sebastian GST 01'19" 1
11. [GER] KLÖDEN Andreas AST 01'24" 0
12. [BEL] BOONEN Tom QST 01'27" 0 0
14. [ESP] SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CSC 01'30" 0
15. [RUS] IGNATIEV Mikhail TCS 01'52"
23. [NED] CLEMENT Stef BTL 02'04" 0 0
26. [NED] GESINK Robert RAB 02'08" 0
27. [ESP] MOSQUERA MIGUEZ Ezequiel KGZ 02'09" 0

72. [ESP] RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin GCE 03'35"

>>> He is not the worst

Stop underrating Mosquera
Last year he had crap time trials in the Vuelta because two times he fell just a day or two before both time trials. So he had the effects of the fall...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Cancellara
Danielson 2:00
Tondo 2:05
Nibali 2:15
Velits 2:30
F.Schleck 2:40
Roche 3:00
Mosquera 3:30
Rodriguez 4:00

or something like that

 

[icefire]

Dudes, do I need to repost?

2008, Ciudad Real, 42km, dead flat

1. [USA] LEIPHEIMER Levi AST 50'57" 70
2. [FRA] CHAVANEL Sylvain COF 12" 40
3. [ITA] QUINZIATO Manuel LIQ 33" 25
4. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 49" 15
5. [ESP] VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro GCE 59" 10
6. [BEL] VAN GOOLEN Jurgen CSC 01'06" 7
7. [DEN] BLAUDZUN Michael CSC 01'07" 5
8. [SVK] VELITS Martin MRM 01'15" 3
9. [BEL] CORNU Dominique SIL 01'19" 2
10. [GER] LANG Sebastian GST 01'19" 1
11. [GER] KLÖDEN Andreas AST 01'24" 0
12. [BEL] BOONEN Tom QST 01'27" 0 0
14. [ESP] SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CSC 01'30" 0
15. [RUS] IGNATIEV Mikhail TCS 01'52"
23. [NED] CLEMENT Stef BTL 02'04" 0 0
26. [NED] GESINK Robert RAB 02'08" 0
27. [ESP] MOSQUERA MIGUEZ Ezequiel KGZ 02'09" 0

72. [ESP] RODRIGUEZ OLIVER Joaquin GCE 03'35"

>>> He is not the worst

Stop underrating Mosquera
Last year he had crap time trials in the Vuelta because two times he fell just a day or two before both time trials. So he had the effects of the fall...

Mosquera was in contention, Purito was Valverde's helper. I don't know if Purito's past numbers can be useful in the current context. I'm not even sure if his Tour ITT numbers are meaningful.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Still no reason to think Mosquera will suck major donkey ***

Ofcourse it can happen, but usually he can hold his own in time trials

 

[Jamsque]

David Millar loves the Vuelta week 3 ITT, but I think Spartacus will be too much for him this time. As for the GC picture, I am sure one of the top contenders will screw the pooch and lose three minutes, but honestly it could be any one of them.

 

[roundabout]

Rodriguez is lousy at time trialing full stop. Not sure a leaders jersey will help him. He'll lose at least a minute to everyone in the top 9 on GC.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Mosquera was in contention, Purito was Valverde's helper. I don't know if Purito's past numbers can be useful in the current context. I'm not even sure if his Tour ITT numbers are meaningful.

Why would his Tour performance not be meaningful? He was hardly holding back when he was lying 7th overall after 18 stages.

 

[jezzer]

So, what are the predictions for time to be lost to, or gained on, Nibali by those currently within 6 minutes of the lead (i.e. the top 9)

Taking the liberty of adjusting Zoncolan's predictions to using Nibali as a baseline, and rounding to the nearest 10s, he is suggesting:
1. Danielson - 0:30
2. Velits - 0:10
3. Nibali 0:00
4. Sastre + 0:30
5. Schleck + 0:50
6. Roche + 1:30
7. Tondo + 2:40
8. Rodriguez + 2:50
9. Mosquera + 3:00

I'd go for almost exactly that, but I don't think Sastre will be that close to Nibali. Around or behind Roche.

 

[hrotha]

Why would his Tour performance not be meaningful? He was hardly holding back when he was lying 7th overall after 18 stages.

Extreme conditions. Not all TTs have such strong winds.

Purito is probably the worst at time trialing, but it would also seem he's currently the strongest among the GC guys.

 

[Rocksteady]

David Millar loves the Vuelta week 3 ITT, but I think Spartacus will be too much for him this time. As for the GC picture, I am sure one of the top contenders will screw the pooch and lose three minutes, but honestly it could be any one of them.

I'm hoping the fact that Canc will be one of the first to go will hurt him in that he won't have a good time to match his efforts against.

I think we all know which of the GC guys is best at screwing the pooch... It sucks to be a Garmin fan.

 

[roundabout]

Cancellara will have Ignatiev to chase. Bout time he lives up to the promise

 

[Ney the Viking]

I'm hoping the fact that Canc will be one of the first to go will hurt him in that he won't have a good time to match his efforts against.

I think we all know which of the GC guys is best at screwing the pooch... It sucks to be a Garmin fan.

If he tries to match a time he is doing it wrong anyway, he should know how much hurt he can put on himself over 42km

 

[Rocksteady]

Anybody think Tejay will show anything in this TT. He seems to be touted as more of a Mic Rogers style of rider. Could we see a top ten from him here??

 

[Sasquatch]

Anybody think Tejay will show anything in this TT. He seems to be touted as more of a Mic Rogers style of rider. Could we see a top ten from him here??

If this time trial was at the start of the race, I would say top 10 in a heartbeat.

Young body, first grand tour, third week - hard to tell. All depends on how well he's recovered. If he's in good touch, he will come top ten.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I'd go for almost exactly that, but I don't think Sastre will be that close to Nibali. Around or behind Roche.

Yes. In recent GC long TTs, Sastre has ranged from about fifteen seconds faster than Roche to about thirty seconds slower. I'd expect them to have similar times.

 

[Rocksteady]

If this time trial was at the start of the race, I would say top 10 in a heartbeat.

Young body, first grand tour, third week - hard to tell. All depends on how well he's recovered. If he's in good touch, he will come top ten.

That was my take as well. I'm hoping that he took it easy yesterday and will be able to recover today so that he can do well in the TT. I think yesterday's ~30 min down was him realizing that 3 weeks is too long so he might as well wait for the autobus. I think we will see some good things from him in the future.

 

[Kazistuta]

Nibbles will clearly defeat Danielson amongst the top GC candidates, no doubt in my mind there, although Tommy D should do more than decent. The top4 is pretty much a given (Spartacus, Larsson, DZ and Millar), but I think Nibali might round top5 off - in close combat with Lulu Sanchez, Bruseghin and Peraud. The latter would actually be my outside pick for the win, but he seems to show signs of fatigue.

Interesting if Menchov decides to go all out as well or just take it as a training ride, he would under normal circumstances be a favorite too.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

For everything a first. If Nibali actually manages top 5, it would be the first time in his career in longer than 40km TT's

In fact, he does only have 1 top 10 placing in a TT longer than 40km

 

[icefire]

Why would his Tour performance not be meaningful? He was hardly holding back when he was lying 7th overall after 18 stages.

I'm not sure the motivation for holding 7th place is the same than motivation for holding 1st place or shooting distance for the last MTF. Maybe I'm wrong, but trying to extrapolate past performances from non specialists who were not in contention to a situation where they play with their chance for overall win of a GT leads to many surprises more often than not.

 

[Sasquatch]

That was my take as well. I'm hoping that he took it easy yesterday and will be able to recover today so that he can do well in the TT. I think yesterday's ~30 min down was him realizing that 3 weeks is too long so he might as well wait for the autobus. I think we will see some good things from him in the future.

He's the yanks best GT hope.

He will put guys like Vande Velde, Danielson etc to shame.

 

[Sasquatch]

Rodriguez was bad in the Tour time trial because of the wind. Pure and simple. Everyone struggled with the wind.

You can't compare his TDF performance to what he'll do here unless it's windy.

 

[Frosty]

Interesting if Menchov decides to go all out as well or just take it as a training ride, he would under normal circumstances be a favorite too.

He was in an early attack yesterday so maybe is waiting for either tomorrow or saturday.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Looks like the weather is going to be pretty favorable for the climbing specialists - hot and only light winds. I don't think we're going to see anything like the huge gaps in the Tour TT

Nibali should gain time over most of his rivals but not enough to secure the GC. He'd be better on a more technical circuit and he's no big-gear masher like Menchov. Mosquera has a good shot at jumping into 2nd spot - I wouldn't be surprised if he's improved quite a bit on a TT bike and even two years ago in a very similar test he only lost 1:20 to Contador so I'd expect him to lose no more than that to Nibali

 

[Von Mises]

I had some time in hand, so I went back at looked at all TT results (what I was able to find) from past 3 years: grand tours, Dauphine, de Suisse, Pais vasco, Catalunya, Paris-Nice.

Some general observations:

- Nibali is by far most consistent and probably also the best TT-st of this bunch
- Danielson and Velits are a bit overrated. Results from past don´t show that they are better than Nibali.
- Frank Schleck is actually pretty decent TT-guy. I guess he (and his brother) are too often compared with Contador, that creates image of him as lousy TT-st.
- Roche is average. More or less level with Sastre.
- Rodriquez is unpredictable. At his best he can loose to Nibali (and Schleck) about 0.30-1.00, but he can easily loose also 2-3 minutes .
-Mosquera is mostly decent, not bad at all.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Roche will do better than many are suggesting.

He lost less than a minute to Contador in a longer TT in the Tour, so I really can't see how he loses 90 seconds to Nibali here.