Vuelta a España - Stage 20 San Martín de Valdeiglesias - Bola del Mundo 172.1km

[khardung la]

Mosqueras best tactic will probably 3 accelerations. Weve seen this can kill Nibali.

In Asturias Everytime someone attacked Kreuziger and Nibali just kept going at the same pace. THey think everyone will falter. But now Nibalis job is to mark Mosquera. If Eze attacks Nibali has to follow, and cant keep the same pace. Mosquera should attack once taking Nibali with him. Wait a few minutes, then bam again. Knowing Nibali its possible he will feel confident and try it himself once as well. Anyhoo the point is not to get a gap, but to hurt Nibali going into the final 3 km.

Do what he did in Andora.

Nibali can crack. But he has to be made to crack. That is the lesson.

What if Rodriguez attacks with let's say 12 kms to go? Or Velits? I think it can be a stressful day for Nibali if Kreuziger cannot help him to control things. He has lots to loose tomorrow, while for the others it is easier: attack, attack, attack.

 

[Kwibus]

You forget that the 19km of climbing, even if not steep, and even if below 5% until 12km to go, is going to seriously exhaust everyone.
And then the thoughest part, is right at the end. Average % says nothing then.
They're all very tired and then have to climb 3km at percentages almost constantly above 12% with many stretches closing to 20%.

Nothing overhyped at all. But you'll see tomorrow.

I wasn't sure what to expect, but now that DT predicted that it's not overhyped and thus very tough I think Mosquera has a serious chance to win it all.

 

[Climbing]

Well, they are not going to answer Rodriguez attacks for sure.
And Velits attacking, that would be very strange if happens, don't you think?

 

[hrotha]

Well, they are not going to answer Rodriguez attacks for sure.
And Velits attacking, that would be very strange if happens, don't you think?

Almost as strange as his winning the TT.

 

[The Hitch]

Interesting. What about Nibali's tactics? Can he afford to let Mosquera go and control the gap like he did at the Lagos? Of course that's what worked best for him, but then there was a break taking up the time bonus and an ITT afterwards to put some time on Mosquera.

What would you guys do if you were Nibali? Personally I'd keep up the whole "pace yourself, don't follow Mosquera" thing.

Nibali has 3 options
1 Follow Mosquera everywhere
2 Own pace up Bello
3 Send Kreuziger into a break and then attack on descend of 2nd climb very risky and unlikely but its an option.

1 worked for Contador on the TOurmalet but then Contador was equal to Schleck on mountains. Is Nibali equal to Eze?

What you are proposing (2) is in my opinion also the best option. Make Mosquera work for those 50 seconds. Its what he did in Asturias on those 2 climbs and it worked then. Could be the wrong strategy but its the safest one.

 

[roundabout]

What if Rodriguez attacks with let's say 12 kms to go? Or Velits? I think it can be a stressful day for Nibali if Kreuziger cannot help him to control things. He has lots to loose tomorrow, while for the others it is easier: attack, attack, attack.

Velits will be in defense mode all the way tomorrow. Losing 3.50 something to Rodriguez on one climb is impossible unless Nibali completely blows up. As long as he follows his own rhythm and concentrates on Mosquera Nibali will do ok.

 

[tretow95]

what WILL happen:

a break of about 7-9 riders will get away probably including serafin martinez - xacobeo and moncoutie who will fight it out for mountains jersey.

smooth till bottom of bola then frank or sastre will go very early for the stage and catch up escapees along the way. (except martinez or moncoutie).
kreuziger still controls it till el ventrillo where mosquera goes for it.

eze quickly gets a 20 second gap and climbing, frank or satre will pas all the escapees and get the stage. eze keeps taking in, comes 2nd or 3rd on stage loses vuelta to nibali by 0- 15 seconds and frank schleck will overtake velits for the 3rd.

well i hope so....

 

[khardung la]

Velits will be in defense mode all the way tomorrow. Losing 3.50 something to Rodriguez on one climb is impossible unless Nibali completely blows up. As long as he follows his own rhythm and concentrates on Mosquera Nibali will do ok.

Impossible is nothing

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I wasn't sure what to expect, but now that DT predicted that it's not overhyped and thus very tough I think Mosquera has a serious chance to win it all.

I'll probably be as woefully wrong as the Catholic church when they denied the world was round.

 

[The Hitch]

I'll probably be as woefully wrong as the Catholic church when they denied the world was round.

Prediction is a tad light. They said it was so and tortured + killed anyone who said or was suspected of thinking otherwise.

This is pretty much the same as you policy towards those who dont agree

 

[Luis Ocaña]

I expect David Garcia attacking after El Ventorrillo, with Mosquera in his wheel, dropping Nibali and setting a high pace for like 3k. After that, it's all up to Eze and hopefully for him, Kreuziger won't be around anymore.

 

[vcampbell]

It's true that Bola del Mundo's first half is not so hard, BUT if any of the team will set a very high pace, than that could kill anyone, and don't forget that not just Mosquera want to win this race, but also Rodriguez, Sastre, Roche, etc want a podium place. The only one (two) who need a slower place is (are) Nibali (and Velits).

 

[khardung la]

I'll probably be as woefully wrong as the Catholic church when they denied the world was round.

Or several protestant churches at the same time in that matter

 

[vcampbell]

what WILL happen:

a break of about 7-9 riders will get away probably including serafin martinez - xacobeo and moncoutie who will fight it out for mountains jersey.

smooth till bottom of bola then frank or sastre will go very early for the stage and catch up escapees along the way. (except martinez or moncoutie).
kreuziger still controls it till el ventrillo where mosquera goes for it.

eze quickly gets a 20 second gap and climbing, frank or satre will pas all the escapees and get the stage. eze keeps taking in, comes 2nd or 3rd on stage loses vuelta to nibali by 0- 15 seconds and frank schleck will overtake velits for the 3rd.

well i hope so....

If Serafin Martinez goes into a breakaway, then he will do it only to help later to Mosquera. The red jersey is much more important for them, than the mountain jersey.

 

[The Hitch]

Or several protestant churches at the same time in that matter

You fool

Christopher colombus discovers America - 1492

Luther starts the founding of protestantism in Wittenburg - 1517

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

You fool

Christopher colombus discovers America - 1492

Luther starts the founding of protestantism in Wittenburg - 1517

Before you start throwing around the world fool, you should probably un-confuse yourself.

The idea that people seriously believed the earth was flat is the only foolish thing here. The Venerable Bead (Catholic) expounded the round earth in 720, and was not killed.

You're getting confused with helio-centrism, which happened after the reformation, and where the dispute did indeed cross denominations.

 

[khardung la]

You fool

Christopher colombus discovers America - 1492

Luther starts the founding of protestantism in Wittenburg - 1517

And the Catholic church accused Galileo in 1615. The same as different protestants churches did with Kepler (the other main defender of heliocentrism) during the same decades.

Religious institutions work veeeery slowly in understanding the implication of things (like the trips of Columbus)

 

[Jamsque]

Christopher Columbus has nothing at all to do with anyone's knowledge of the roundness (or otherwise) of the world.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

And the Catholic church accused Galileo in 1615. The same as different protestants churches did with Kepler (the other main defender of heliocentrism) during the same decades.

Religious institutions work veeeery slowly in understanding the implication of things (like the trips of Columbus)

Same error.

heliocentrism and flat earthism are different issues - flat earthism as a medieval position is utter twaddle, so the discovery of the West Indies has nothing to do with this.

 

[khardung la]

Same error.

heliocentrism and flat earthism are different issues - flat earthism as a medieval position is utter twaddle, so the discovery of the West Indies has nothing to do with this.

My second paragraph is ironic, this is why I say that the Catholic church was late in understanding the implications of what Columbus did You can see that I referred to heliocentrism in the first paragraph.

 

[The Hitch]

Before you start throwing around the world fool, you should probably un-confuse yourself.

The idea that people seriously believed the earth was flat is the only foolish thing here. The Venerable Bead (Catholic) expounded the round earth in 720, and was not killed.

You're getting confused with helio-centrism, which happened after the reformation, and where the dispute did indeed cross denominations.

I meant fool in a friendly way hence the smile.

And my point was that the earth was discovered to be round before Protestantism began. What happened a thousand years earlier is besides the point because protestantism as we know it didnt exist then. The term comes from the 1529 Diet of Speyer, almost 40 years after the earth was discovered to be round.

Edit: I see your claiming that they kept on claiming the world was flat after that. Well perhaps you are right on that though definately not to the same extent

Edit 2: Oops another mistake on my part. You say flat earth theories didnt even exist by Colombuses time. Ah yes, i have come across this before, you are correct

 

[icefire]

I find the discussion about the roundness of the Earth quite appropriate on the thread of the stage to Bola del Mundo, which translates to English as World Ball

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I meant fool in a friendly way hence the smile.

And my point was that the earth was discovered to be round before Protestantism began. What happened a thousand years earlier is besides the point because protestantism as we know it didnt exist then. The term comes from the 1529 Diet of Speyer, almost 40 years after the earth was discovered to be round.

I don't mean to be rude, but you're still missing the point.

The earth was 'discovered' to be round circa 330 BC, and it's an utter myth that people in the middle ages believed otherwise, or that the Catholic church killed anyone for espousing that. Indeed, the spherical earth is explained in the summa theologica, the central work of Catholic theology of the middle ages.

You are confusing the flatness/roundness of the earth with heliocentrism - whether or not the earth rotates the sun, or vice-versa.

Christopher Columbus has absolutely nothing to do with this, and the debate over it occured roughly 100 years after the beginnings of the reformation, so it is very much a Protestant issue as well as a Catholic one.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Wtf? All I know is that the world certainly isn't flat, tomorrow.
I see the jokers have beaten me to the punch over Dekker Tifosi.

I was going to say that all this thread proves, is that by throwing the Bola into tomorrow's melting pot, nobody can predict how it will eventually play out........
..........'cept the aforementioned "Nostradamus" of the CN forums.
(thought I'd throw another historical figure into the mix.)

I have a feeling that unless Frank Schleck does another "Cortobello", we will have a staring match, until those final 3 kms.
Of course, unlike DT, I could be wrong.

 

[Kwibus]

I find the discussion about the roundness of the Earth quite appropriate on the thread of the stage to Bola del Mundo, which translates to English as World Ball

If you look at it that way then they ain't going off-topic at all