Vuelta a España 2019 Rumours

[Laplaz]

Tour over, Vuelta now.
Who will be the main contenders?
I think Carapaz, Roglic, MAL, Dumoulin (?), Kruisjwijk, Pozzovivo, Bernal (?), A. Yates, Majka, Valverde and Quintana. Someone else? Fuglsang maybe?

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

I like the route as well. I think stage 18 has to have the perfect circumstances to be a good stage, but stage 20 is kinda nice. The only negative is 3 flat stages out of the last 5 stages, but apart from that it should be a great race to follow (as usualI might add, I like the Vuelta).

The easy third week approach worked really well in 2015 so hopefully it will again this year.

Not so sure about that as Fabio Aru fluked his way to a Grand Tour win that will be looked back on as one of the most anomalous of the entire decade done almost entirely on team strength and something he has never looked like repeating since.

Not really, it was his third podium and his fourth straight GT top 5. People are more likely to say, "what happened after that?" as he's only managed one top 10 since despite only being 25 when he won his GT, but he's not an anomaly like Horner, Cobo AND Froome in 2011, Hesjedal who only had one top 10 and two top 20s before winning a GT at 31, or even Geraint Thomas, who won the Tour in his first GT top 10, at the age of 32.

Aru got dropped by Trofimov at the 2015 Giro d'Italia! In fact his 2nd place there already was a fluke thanks to a strong Astana team that stopped chasing Contador after Lana's mechanical, because Aru would have been further distanced by Amador. Aru never confirmed his 2014 season. He is a complete anomaly, since the likes of Horner & Hesjedal at least we're among the strongest riders in the grand tours they won. Aru got towed-up the standings by his superb team. That is an anomaly that doesn't even happen occasionally.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I think you're hypercritical of Aru there. He was no weaker in the 2015 Vuelta than Hesjedal in the 2012 Giro. Four straight GT top 5s don't happen by accident, even if the team strength pulled him there. Given where he had been coming up through the ranks, his winning the 2015 Vuelta is not the outlier that Hesjedal, Horner or Thomas each are.

 

[Lequack]

Re:

Tour over, Vuelta now.
Who will be the main contenders?
I think Carapaz, Roglic, MAL, Dumoulin (?), Kruisjwijk, Pozzovivo, Bernal (?), A. Yates, Majka, Valverde and Quintana. Someone else? Fuglsang maybe?

Can Carapaz increase his salary at Ineos if he wins the Vuelta?

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Tour over, Vuelta now.
Who will be the main contenders?
I think Carapaz, Roglic, MAL, Dumoulin (?), Kruisjwijk, Pozzovivo, Bernal (?), A. Yates, Majka, Valverde and Quintana. Someone else? Fuglsang maybe?

Quintana won't race with Valverde in the team ever again! So no Vuelta for him.

 

[jfazendeiro]

Quintana confirmed his participation.

 

[Pantani Attacks]

So no Carapaz I guess?

 

[primoz]

Adam Yates said he is not riding and Chaves will be their leader. Simon also should rest after 3 GT's in a row.

https://www.lequipe.fr/Cyclisme-sur-route/Actualites/Adam-yates-absent-de-la-vuelta-mitchelton-scott-fait-confiance-a-esteban-chaves/1043108

 

[KZD]

I can't really understand why does Nairo need to race the Vuelta every year when he already won it.

The strongest of the trident for the overall is Carapaz.

Jumbo Visma should have a really strong team too.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

I think you're hypercritical of Aru there. He was no weaker in the 2015 Vuelta than Hesjedal in the 2012 Giro. Four straight GT top 5s don't happen by accident, even if the team strength pulled him there. Given where he had been coming up through the ranks, his winning the 2015 Vuelta is not the outlier that Hesjedal, Horner or Thomas each are.

I wonder if Thomas is worth regarding as an anomaly now: his 2nd proved his 1st wasn't an aberration.

 

[hayneplane]

Re: Re:

I think you're hypercritical of Aru there. He was no weaker in the 2015 Vuelta than Hesjedal in the 2012 Giro. Four straight GT top 5s don't happen by accident, even if the team strength pulled him there. Given where he had been coming up through the ranks, his winning the 2015 Vuelta is not the outlier that Hesjedal, Horner or Thomas each are.

I wonder if Thomas is worth regarding as an anomaly now: his 2nd proved his 1st wasn't an aberration.

Yes I think we can put Thomas up a notch from the total outliers, he was also clearly the strongest in the race when he won.

With the other top 5s for Aru I can’t remember any occasion where he threatened to actually win the race. I see his level at his peak as being like Bardet and he managed two tour podiums without looking a big danger to win.

 

[hayneplane]

I think Roglic is the logical favourite if he can double peak but I would not be at all surprised if we had a 2011 style Vuelta where the pre race predictions are ripped up completely by the actions on the road. Thomas may well be Ineos leader but this could be complicated by a home worlds that is a unique opportunity.

Carapaz has strong credentials but will Movistar ride for him given he is leaving the team.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re: Re:

I think you're hypercritical of Aru there. He was no weaker in the 2015 Vuelta than Hesjedal in the 2012 Giro. Four straight GT top 5s don't happen by accident, even if the team strength pulled him there. Given where he had been coming up through the ranks, his winning the 2015 Vuelta is not the outlier that Hesjedal, Horner or Thomas each are.

I wonder if Thomas is worth regarding as an anomaly now: his 2nd proved his 1st wasn't an aberration.

Winning your first GT at 32, when you've never even managed a top 10 before, is still anomalous. That he's replicated it means he's not a one-hit wonder, but compared to Aru, his career trajectory in stage racing up to that first win is very unusual. Aru went from winning Valle d'Aosta twice and finishing 2nd and 4th in Girobio to riding the Giro with no pressure and the top 10 of the Österreichrundfahrt in his first pro year, to 3rd in the Giro and 5th in the Vuelta in his second, to 2nd in the Giro and 1st in the Vuelta in his third. The Vuelta he won is the only one of the four he didn't win at least one mountain stage in. Aru's career trajectory up to and including his GT win is one of a serious, prodigious climbing talent focused entirely on stage racing. It's what's happened AFTER that that has been anomalous.

Thomas' Tour win was his 13th GT start, and on no previous occasion had he made the top 10 (the crashing out of the 2017 Giro does affect this, however, as it was the only GT prior to the 2018 Tour that he started as even co-leader, though we all know he was the #1 guy in that Giro, given how the team circled around him and abandoned Landa to his fate after the two crashed). He had put in some killer rides in the previous couple of years, but fallen away after a single bad day, nevertheless 2015, when he was 29, is the year he really kicks on as a climber; before that he only had a couple of noteworthy climbing performances, such as finishing with Bardet at Winklmoosalm in 2014. Aru right now is the same age as when Thomas first showed he could climb more than occasionally - 2015 with his performances on the Rettenbachferner and Croix de Chaubouret followed by a strong Tour. Thomas may have become a genuine contender who can back it up, but the stage of his career at which he's done it is a major outlier; history is littered with young stars who burnt out early like Aru seems to have done, it's not littered to the same extent with people who've discovered their GT contention capabilities only after turning 30, and that's why I think Hesjedal and Thomas are more outlying than Aru.

And if two GTs on the podium is enough to say Thomas isn't an anomaly, how is four GTs in the top 5 on the spin not enough to say Aru isn't?

 

[hayneplane]

I see the WIN from Aru as the anomaly because I don’t think he has the extra quality to make gains over the GC field in the time trial or be the clear best climber in the race. Some of his mountain wins were because he was not closely marked and was allowed to skip up the road while the big captains watched each other like hawks.

I may have come across overly harsh on him as I don’t think an average rider can rack up 4 top 5 finishes but I just can’t picture any conventional circumstances where he would win a Grand Tour even at his absolute career best. I do think that if he got himself on a better team with a proven track record of GC challenges he will be able to get back to another top 5 somewhere but not the very top step.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Thomas' Tour win was his 13th GT start, and on no previous occasion had he made the top 10 (the crashing out of the 2017 Giro does affect this, however, as it was the only GT prior to the 2018 Tour that he started as even co-leader, though we all know he was the #1 guy in that Giro, given how the team circled around him and abandoned Landa to his fate after the two crashed). He had put in some killer rides in the previous couple of years, but fallen away after a single bad day, nevertheless 2015, when he was 29, is the year he really kicks on as a climber; before that he only had a couple of noteworthy climbing performances, such as finishing with Bardet at Winklmoosalm in 2014. Aru right now is the same age as when Thomas first showed he could climb more than occasionally - 2015 with his performances on the Rettenbachferner and Croix de Chaubouret followed by a strong Tour. Thomas may have become a genuine contender who can back it up, but the stage of his career at which he's done it is a major outlier; history is littered with young stars who burnt out early like Aru seems to have done, it's not littered to the same extent with people who've discovered their GT contention capabilities only after turning 30, and that's why I think Hesjedal and Thomas are more outlying than Aru.

And if two GTs on the podium is enough to say Thomas isn't an anomaly, how is four GTs in the top 5 on the spin not enough to say Aru isn't?

Well firstly, I don't disagree with you about Aru.

As for Thomas, not to belabour the point, but as you pointed out, 2015 was a key year. In 2015 he was 15th in the Tour - all the riders ahead of him were leaders, he was the highest placed domestique. He was 15th again in 2016, when the previous statement holds true but for his teammate Sergio Henao, who came 12th. Both times Thomas finished higher than ostensibly better climbers while working entirely for Froome, crashing, getting injured, surviving assassination attempts from Wawa Barguil, and whatever other scrapes Thomas gets into. Maybe future generations will struggle to understand where Thomas came from, but I have no doubt in my mind that, in context, 2015 and '16 showed top-10 talent. Not to mention that he came 5" (Spilak!) from winning the 2015 Tour de Suisse (ahead of Dumoulin, Pinot and Majka) and won the 2016 Paris-Nice (ahead of Contador, Porte and Bardet).

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Quintana confirmed his participation.

If Movistar doesn't confirm it, his own confirmation isn't worth anything. And I have a feeling they won't confirm it after this Tour...

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I can't really understand why does Nairo need to race the Vuelta every year when he already won it.

The strongest of the trident for the overall is Carapaz.

Jumbo Visma should have a really strong team too.

Because he literally doesnt have anything to do for the rest of the season. He is a pure GC-rider and cannot do anything else really, so it makes sense.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I can't really understand why does Nairo need to race the Vuelta every year when he already won it.

The strongest of the trident for the overall is Carapaz.

Jumbo Visma should have a really strong team too.

Because he literally doesnt have anything to do for the rest of the season. He is a pure GC-rider and cannot do anything else really, so it makes sense.

Post Tour season doesn't have enough diversity. There's a lot of riders who don't really have much to aim for by then.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

I can't really understand why does Nairo need to race the Vuelta every year when he already won it.

The strongest of the trident for the overall is Carapaz.

Jumbo Visma should have a really strong team too.

Because he literally doesnt have anything to do for the rest of the season. He is a pure GC-rider and cannot do anything else really, so it makes sense.

Post Tour season doesn't have enough diversity. There's a lot of riders who don't really have much to aim for by then.

Yes, agreed. There are very many races, though, but the whole post Tour season is just a shambles, calendar-wise.

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

I can't really understand why does Nairo need to race the Vuelta every year when he already won it.

The strongest of the trident for the overall is Carapaz.

Jumbo Visma should have a really strong team too.

Because he literally doesnt have anything to do for the rest of the season. He is a pure GC-rider and cannot do anything else really, so it makes sense.

Post Tour season doesn't have enough diversity. There's a lot of riders who don't really have much to aim for by then.

Yes, agreed. There are very many races, though, but the whole post Tour season is just a shambles, calendar-wise.

Hence why the Tour of Switzerland should be moved to September back as a 10 days race to make it the 4th big Tour again! While the Vuelta moves closer to the Tour as is the case this year.

 

[Valv.Piti]

How's Dumoulin's rehab? I doubt he will be ready from what I heard before the Tour.

I think Movistar will be the team to beat, realistically they will have 3 riders how can place very high in the overall, but can they make it work like in the Giro? Lotto looks quite good with Rogla + Kruijswijk as well, I suspect the former to be in great shape when the race rolls around, maybe the single biggest favourite. Lopez seems like a great bet at this point as well considering it seems there's a decent amount of great GC-riders who are skipping this race for various reasons, maybe including all the Ineos-guys. Mas will need a great Vuelta after this pretty horrendous Tour.

Dno who actually can win apart from those names. Will be interesting to see who shows up in the first place, the Vuelta always delivers a quite good race no matter what.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

How's Dumoulin's rehab? I doubt he will be ready from what I heard before the Tour.

I think Movistar will be the team to beat, realistically they will have 3 riders how can place very high in the overall, but can they make it work like in the Giro? Lotto looks quite good with Rogla + Kruijswijk as well, I suspect the former to be in great shape when the race rolls around, maybe the single biggest favourite. Lopez seems like a great bet at this point as well considering it seems there's a decent amount of great GC-riders who are skipping this race for various reasons, maybe including all the Ineos-guys. Mas will need a great Vuelta after this pretty horrendous Tour.

Dno who actually can win apart from those names. Will be interesting to see who shows up in the first place, the Vuelta always delivers a quite good race no matter what.

Last I heard Vuelta was unlikely cause the knee was worse than expected and he couldn't do any high intensity work.

That was the 10th of July. All Dumoulin news since then has been about a possible transfer

Then there's always the option of Sunweb deciding to keep Dumoulin out of the Vuelta if he wants to leave.

All in all, if Roglic shows up prepared to ride for GC I think he's the standout favorite.

 

[DanielSong39]

Re:

I see the WIN from Aru as the anomaly because I don’t think he has the extra quality to make gains over the GC field in the time trial or be the clear best climber in the race. Some of his mountain wins were because he was not closely marked and was allowed to skip up the road while the big captains watched each other like hawks.

I may have come across overly harsh on him as I don’t think an average rider can rack up 4 top 5 finishes but I just can’t picture any conventional circumstances where he would win a Grand Tour even at his absolute career best. I do think that if he got himself on a better team with a proven track record of GC challenges he will be able to get back to another top 5 somewhere but not the very top step.

Aru busted the peloton in Stage 11 to take control of the race, had a good time trial to keep himself in the mix and made the crucial attack on the penultimate climb in Stage 20 to distance Dumoulin. Aru performed like a winner that Vuelta.

Aru actually looked pretty good for about two weeks in the 2017 Tour too until he ran out of gas.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I see the WIN from Aru as the anomaly because I don’t think he has the extra quality to make gains over the GC field in the time trial or be the clear best climber in the race. Some of his mountain wins were because he was not closely marked and was allowed to skip up the road while the big captains watched each other like hawks.

I may have come across overly harsh on him as I don’t think an average rider can rack up 4 top 5 finishes but I just can’t picture any conventional circumstances where he would win a Grand Tour even at his absolute career best. I do think that if he got himself on a better team with a proven track record of GC challenges he will be able to get back to another top 5 somewhere but not the very top step.

Aru busted the peloton in Stage 11 to take control of the race, had a good time trial to keep himself in the mix and made the crucial attack on the penultimate climb in Stage 20 to distance Dumoulin. Aru performed like a winner that Vuelta.

Aru actually looked pretty good for about two weeks in the 2017 Tour too until he ran out of gas.

Aru was also 6th in the 2016 Tour the day before the final mountain stage, where he had a mystery collapse. Similar thing happened in the 2017 Vuelta.

Aru was a legit GT contender. That Vuelta he won wasn't as weak as a number of other GTs this decade.

 

[staubsauger]

Aru had one good day in the Pyrenees where he took the race lead. Later already in the red jersey, he made one attack to extend his lead. Just to be countered by Purito, gasping for air. His decent TT put him back in contention. But it was Landa's attack that put Dumoulin in difficulties and when the Dutchman nearly closed the gap on the flat, it was Zeits who dropped back just in time to tow Aru away.

He didn't race like a champion at all. No need to romantize his victory! Especially not, since his behavior have cost Landa & Rosa precious results. Actually the team mates Aru owes the majority of his fake palmares!