Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2020: Stage 11 (Villaviciosa › Alto de La Farrapona. Lagos de Somiedo 170km)

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jumbo can (try to) ruin GTs by using Sky/US Postal team train tactics. however, Roglic does not have the ability to take minutes out of the opposition in the last climb as those teams did. so Roglic will always be at the risk of losing everything on a bad day or against a super performance. Roglic is very strong, but his burst of speed wins him a handful of seconds and/or bonus seconds in the last 300 m and therefor will always leave him vulnerable to a setback since he won't be able to make huge differences.

having said that, I expect him to win the Vuelta. if he can match the best on Angliru (I actually would not be surprised if he won by a few seconds). he should also take 1.5-2 mins minimum in the ITT from all his closest rivals.
 
I understand the Jumbo critics, but I dont think what they are doing is that wrong. They lost the tour because of a miracle Performance, *** happens. Now Roglic in the lead and not loosing any time on a tough Mountain with a TT to come and being able to conserve energy after a looong season seems not a bad way to go per se.
What you say about the TT is true, but surely you have to agree that they're far too comfortable keeping numbers in the train and riding cautiously to defend a small or in this case non-existant lead. Roglic went into that TT having passed up at least two chances to bury Pogacar, and ultimately that's where he lost it.
 
I had wondered what MS were thinking keeping Nieve in reserve instead of having him help Chaves on a few occasions. Never mind, Chaves still doesn't have it. Surely at this point it's time for a serious reassessment of what he's trying to to as a rider. MS are probably lucky Movistar get most of the attention when it comes to failed GC ambitions, because in reality their recent record isn't any better.
 
What you say about the TT is true, but surely you have to agree that they're far too comfortable keeping numbers in the train and riding cautiously to defend a small or in this case non-existant lead. Roglic went into that TT having passed up at least two chances to bury Pogacar, and ultimately that's where he lost it.
Maybe Roglič didn't have the strengh to do that. He didn't look so good yesterday so he couldn't gain time on anybody, specially with another hard stage today.
 
Where in the hell have you been these past nine years?!

2012 Giro and Tour put you off the sport, didn't they? :laughing:

Looking forward to further great posts from you.
There are different reasons. I started working, Then there was the change of the forum software which made it difficult for me to use my account for some time. I think the lockdown really brought me back to cycling. It is also nice that you can discuss climbing times nowadays outside the clinic. In the beginning it was often used to underline your suspicion that some cyclists are doping. But you can really discuss it without doping, just to analyze who is strong on which type of climbs, who has put in a big effort...
I hope I have enough time to regularly be here in the future :)
 
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There are different reasons. I started working, Then there was the change of the forum software which made it difficult for me to use my account for some time. I think the lockdown really brought me back to cycling. It is also nice that you can discuss climbing times nowadays outside the clinic. In the beginning it was often used to underline your suspicion that some cyclists are doping. But you can really discuss it without doping, just to analyze who is strong on which type of climbs, who has put in a big effort...
I hope I have enough time to regularly be here in the future :)
Yes, in those early forum years clinic discussion tended to dominate that of strictly the racing itself. It is better now that those conversations are kept separate.
 
Reactions: Red Rick
Jan 26, 2019
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I had wondered what MS were thinking keeping Nieve in reserve instead of having him help Chaves on a few occasions. Never mind, Chaves still doesn't have it. Surely at this point it's time for a serious reassessment of what he's trying to to as a rider. MS are probably lucky Movistar get most of the attention when it comes to failed GC ambitions, because in reality their recent record isn't any better.
Chaves had a mechanical on the penultimate climb and was chasing with just Nick Schultz for help for the rest of the stage.
 
jumbo can (try to) ruin GTs by using Sky/US Postal team train tactics. however, Roglic does not have the ability to take minutes out of the opposition in the last climb as those teams did. so Roglic will always be at the risk of losing everything on a bad day or against a super performance. Roglic is very strong, but his burst of speed wins him a handful of seconds and/or bonus seconds in the last 300 m and therefor will always leave him vulnerable to a setback since he won't be able to make huge differences.

having said that, I expect him to win the Vuelta. if he can match the best on Angliru (I actually would not be surprised if he won by a few seconds). he should also take 1.5-2 mins minimum in the ITT from all his closest rivals.
That's been the way he has raced, but I wonder...what if he did try to attack from father out? It's a little counterintuitive to say he can only gain time in the last 400 meters with a kick, and then say, well, he'll take 2 minutes in the ITT ==> to me, his TT strength should mean he can sustain a longer hard effort that what we've seen recently. I don't see a lot of difference in riding style between him and LA, who had a strong train, decent kick and excellent TT skills. But LA had that killer instinct and when he had a chance to take time, he buried his rivals.

In the end I suspect it comes down to the style of racing he's comfortable with.
 
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While Roglic is very strong, he actually is a weak link in the JV strategy, because he has a problem finishing the work of his superior team.
What's the point of drilling the Angliru with four doms when the result is Roglic losing time on his rivals?
Jumbo is as strong as Sky/Ineos used to be, but the difference is that Ineos had Froome in the Tour who often was clearly stronger than his rivals. See what happened in the Tour this year. Just imagine Jumbo with 2020 Tour Pogacar. Unbeatable. And while Roglic is competing for the win, the other GT team leaders Dumoulin and Kruijswijk haven't been truly competitive in GT's this year. Jumbo's GT-winning model is in trouble.
I'm a JV supporter but while they've been the strongest GT team by far this year, they lost the Tour and could very well lose the Vuelta because Roglic cannot truly distance Carapaz. Still, for me Roglic is favorite for the Vuelta win, but it could go both ways.
 
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While Roglic is very strong, he actually is a weak link in the JV strategy, because he has a problem finishing the work of his superior team.
What's the point of drilling the Angliru with four doms when the result is Roglic losing time on his rivals?
Jumbo is as strong as Sky/Ineos used to be, but the difference is that Ineos had Froome in the Tour who often was clearly stronger than his rivals. See what happened in the Tour this year. Just imagine Jumbo with 2020 Tour Pogacar. And while Roglic is competing for the win, the other GT team leaders Dumoulin and Kruijswijk haven't been truly competitive in GT's this year. Jumbo's GT-winning model is in trouble.
I guess we can't really say unless we know the specific time splits per km or something. I don't think Gesink for example really drilled it hard. I do know the 2 climbs before Angliru were really fast.
 
While Roglic is very strong, he actually is a weak link in the JV strategy, because he has a problem finishing the work of his superior team.
What's the point of drilling the Angliru with four doms when the result is Roglic losing time on his rivals?
Jumbo is as strong as Sky/Ineos used to be, but the difference is that Ineos had Froome in the Tour who often was clearly stronger than his rivals. See what happened in the Tour this year. Just imagine Jumbo with 2020 Tour Pogacar. And while Roglic is competing for the win, the other GT team leaders Dumoulin and Kruijswijk haven't been truly competitive in GT's this year. Jumbo's GT-winning model is in trouble.
I'm a JV supporter but while they've been the strongest GT team by far this year, they lost the Tour and could very well lose the Vuelta.
Well, how many Frooms, Contadors and Pogačars (still needs to prove it) are there? Not that many, so you play with the best you have.
 
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While Roglic is very strong, he actually is a weak link in the JV strategy, because he has a problem finishing the work of his superior team.
What's the point of drilling the Angliru with four doms when the result is Roglic losing time on his rivals?
Jumbo is as strong as Sky/Ineos used to be, but the difference is that Ineos had Froome in the Tour who often was clearly stronger than his rivals. See what happened in the Tour this year. Just imagine Jumbo with 2020 Tour Pogacar. And while Roglic is competing for the win, the other GT team leaders Dumoulin and Kruijswijk haven't been truly competitive in GT's this year. Jumbo's GT-winning model is in trouble.
I'm a JV supporter but while they've been the strongest GT team by far this year, they lost the Tour and could very well lose the Vuelta.
Obviously Roglic is not a completely dominant rider, but he is a very well-rounded rider, strong in the mountains, a very good time trialist, has a great punch. He has had to have a very long peak to do what he did this season. I would not call him a weak link, but he has his weaknesses and that is a relief for spectators like me... I don't want to imagine this Jumbo team with an insane dominator :eek:on top.
 
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Yeah of course Roglic is not really a weak link, he is super strong and allround. Just saying while JV is dominating the GT's like Sky/Ineos, they have a harder time actually winning them as Roglic can't dominate so far like Froome used to do. Roglic can outsprint his Rivals in the last km, but I don't see him attack from 10 km and put two minutes into his contenders like peak Froome, Armstrong and Contador could. And this makes him vulnerable, like Pogacar showed in the tour and like today.
I thought Pogacar was pretty insane in the Tour, feeding off and then defeating the JV juggernaut. Just imagine him as JV leader. That's a Sky/Froome combo.
 
Yeah of course Roglic is not really a weak link, he is super strong and allround. Just saying while JV is dominating the GT's like Sky/Ineos, they have a harder time actually winning them as Roglic can't dominate so far like Froome used to do. Roglic can outsprint his Rivals in the last km, but I don't see him attack from 10 km and put two minutes into his contenders like peak Froome, Armstrong and Contador could. And this makes him vulnerable, like Pogacar showed in the tour and like today.
I thought Pogacar was pretty insane in the Tour, feeding off and then defeating the JV juggernaut. Just imagine him as JV leader. That's a Sky/Froome combo.
Pogačar used TJV almost as much as Roglič did (big mistake by TJV) and he didn't show Froom like power in any of the stage except the last TT. That was a complete alien like performance and he'll have to prove/repeat it many times if he wants us to believe it was 100% clean.
 
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