Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2020: Stage 13 (Muros > Mirador de Ézaro 33.7 km ITT)

[Red Rick]

I think Roglic is pretty likely to have a 1'30 margin after today, with only Covatilla remaining and the strongest team in the race by a large margin.

 

[L.Suds]

With the form Roglic has had this race and season, I can't see him finishing without winning the overall

 

[WKA311]

I think Roglic will ride a mediocre ITT with Carthy and maybe also Mas not losing much more than a minute.

 

[Cassirer]

I tend to agree. His 3rd week time trials are usually not the best, but the rest day should help with that. As sad as it is for the fight for red, I'd be surprised if anyone remains within 2 minutes on gc

I have my doubts. I really think Roglic looked completely empty after Angliru (arguably everybody did, but he stood out to me...), and while I am one of those who think he did a really solid TT in Tour stage 20, it becomes more unreliable when he's drained, and I got the feeling he is. I have a feeling he won't be able to get an "in the bag" kind of difference (but I am rooting for him).
If the looks of weakness on Angliru were due to the gearing suff mentioned in the stage thread, that of course changes things.

 

[johnymax]

I think Roglic will ride a mediocre ITT with Carthy and maybe also Mas not losing much more than a minute.

Well, if Roglič gains more than a minute on Carthy and Mas I wouldn't call that a mediocre ITT from him.
I expect something like:

Cavagna
+0:15 Roglič
+1:00 Mas
+1:15 Carthy
+1:45 Martin
+1:45 Carapaz

 

[Forever The Best]

I think Roglic is pretty likely to have a 1'30 margin after today, with only Covatilla remaining and the strongest team in the race by a large margin.

Hard to gain time on a rest day.

 

[SafeBet]

Well, if Roglič gains more than a minute on Carthy and Mas I wouldn't call that a mediocre ITT from him.
I expect something like:

Cavagna
+0:15 Roglič
+1:00 Mas
+1:15 Carthy
+1:45 Martin
+1:45 Carapaz

That's very optimistic on Martin.
If you mean Dan.

 

[spalco]

Roglic by a race ending margin

Yeah, he should be closing the bag and locking a chain around it tomorrow.

 

[Mayomaniac]

No idea what to expect from Carapaz. Ineos are much more structured than Movistar, so I assume that he worked a lot on his TT.
They even managed to get a few decent TTs out of Landa (the final one in the 2017 Tour). Limiting his losses to Roglic to under 1:30 would be a good result for him.

 

[Lequack]

Rest day pics

 

[Tonton]

Hard to gain time on a rest day.

...only Remco can do that.

 

[Gigs_98]

A part of me thinks that Roglic will struggle a bit because it's TT late in a gt but then I have to remind myself that despite being this close to the end already, this is still only stage stage 13, this is only 3 stages later than the giro TT he won in 2019.

Anyway, considering he didn't look spectacular on the Angliru and that apparently his TT gets worse the further into a gt it comes I don't expect a spectacular performance from him. He will still gain time on all his competitors and has a decent chance to even win the stage but the time gaps won't be huge. Considering however that there is only one mountain stage left and that none of his competitors have really been able to make a good case for why they can win the Vuelta either I still say, we will see the final leader change tomorrow.

 

[Red Rick]

No idea what to expect from Carapaz. Ineos are much more structured than Movistar, so I assume that he worked a lot on his TT.
They even managed to get a few decent TTs out of Landa (the final one in the 2017 Tour). Limiting his losses to Roglic to under 1:30 would be a good result for him.

Any particular reason to expect him to do better than Bernal in like the 2019 Tour ITT?

A part of me thinks that Roglic will struggle a bit because it's TT late in a gt but then I have to remind myself that despite being this close to the end already, this is still only stage stage 13, this is only 3 stages later than the giro TT he won in 2019.

Anyway, considering he didn't look spectacular on the Angliru and that apparently his TT gets worse the further into a gt it comes I don't expect a spectacular performance from him. He will still gain time on all his competitors and has a decent chance to even win the stage but the time gaps won't be huge. Considering however that there is only one mountain stage left and that none of his competitors have really been able to make a good case for why they can win the Vuelta either I still say, we will see the final leader change tomorrow.

Roglic clearly overcooked himself on the first 30km in the PDBF ITT. 4th after 30km, 11th climbing time despite being one of te 2 best climbers in that race. Without that he probably is closer to Dumoulin/Porte where you might have expected him to beat those but not a horrendous ITT by any stretch of the imaginatino.

In the 2019 Giro Carapaz was pretty much the one dropping a sh*tter in the final ITT despite Roglic being the one with poor form.

 

[roundabout]

Yeah, but Carapaz had the Giro in the, erm, bag at that point, so it's not a good reference, imo.

 

[Gargamel35]

Can anyone elaborate or talk about Roglič's position on a TT bike? For years i thought he's great at this and results were great too. He was praised for his position. But now i hear more and more from tv commentators/forum people that his position is bad?

 

[broppo]

Rest day pics

Damn I did not know Phil Leotardo is working for NTT now!

 

[Mayomaniac]

Any particular reason to expect him to do better than Bernal in like the 2019 Tour ITT?

Roglic clearly overcooked himself on the first 30km in the PDBF ITT. 4th after 30km, 11th climbing time despite being one of te 2 best climbers in that race. Without that he probably is closer to Dumoulin/Porte where you might have expected him to beat those but not a horrendous ITT by any stretch of the imaginatino.

In the 2019 Giro Carapaz was pretty much the one dropping a sh*tter in the final ITT despite Roglic being the one with poor form.

Bernal actually underperformed in the Tour ITT, if you compare it to other TTs he did in the same year (11th in the Tour de Suisse ITT, when he lost only 1sec per km to Rohan Dennis).

 

[Red Rick]

Bernal actually underperformed in the Tour ITT, if you compare it to other TTs he did in the same year (11th in the Tour de Suisse ITT, when he lost only 1sec per km to Rohan Dennis).

Think Bernal underperformed the Tour ITT less than Dennis the Suisse ITT you mention. He's pretty average for a climbing centric GC rider. And Carapaz was pretty dreadful on flat ITTs before going to Ineos. Then there's the question how much he's actually been able to work on his ITT at Ineos in a COVID year.

 

[Fernandez]

Tbh, I dont have a preference between Carapaz and Roglic. Both would be a good winner. And they are providing a beautiful competition.

 

[Tonton]

Roglic has this in the bag...

 

[happytramp]

Roglic has this in the bag...

I'm pretty sure the race organisers deposited the bag at the start of the stage as soon as Roglic announced his participation.

 

[Luthor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1323255165294678016

View: https://twitter.com/lavuelta/status/1323255165294678016

 

[Red Rick]

Can anyone elaborate or talk about Roglič's position on a TT bike? For years i thought he's great at this and results were great too. He was praised for his position. But now i hear more and more from tv commentators/forum people that his position is bad?

What? Where?

 

[klintE]

Carapaz pulling a Pogatsar, would be nice icing on the 2020 cake.
BTW, person responsible for such race design is just a clown.

 

[johnymax]

Carapaz pulling a Pogatsar, would be nice icing on the 2020 cake.
BTW, person responsible for such race design is just a clown.

I don't know. I think Carapaz is more or less a known quantity in TTs. Yes he can improve some still, but he has never shown glimpses of an elite time trialist. While Pogačar erlier this year already beat Roglič in the Nationals and also showed some strong performances last year when he was 21. Carapaz in contrast is 27 already.

If I have to pick one, I'd pick Carthy or Mas to do, maybe not a Pogastar, but a Pogasome, before Carapaz.