Cannot understand how Matthews is favourite to win this. Next to no chance to survive that climb.
I agree. If he's in the break others will attack before the final climb and he will get no assistance in chasing. And, even though he's climbing well, there's no way he will be the strongest in the break on that climb. That last 5km is proper difficult.
This is the kind of stage where someone at 300-1 or more could win by getting into the break and attacking before the final climb. Riders like Tusveld and Cras, for example, both of whom look to have good legs.
I'm going with Padun (60-1) however. I think Bahrain will give him freedom after he babysat Landa two days ago, while Caruso rode to victory. If he gets to the climb with the lead group (that's a big "if", because making the break will be tough, and then there will be attacks before the climb) then he can ride away in the last couple of km of the climb.