Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2021: Stage 10 (Roquetas de Mar - Rincón de la Victoria, 189.0 km)

[Devil's Elbow]

The closest thing to a descent finish that this Vuelta has to offer comes on a stage that could go multiple ways. A breakaway day looks most likely, but neither a (greatly) reduced bunch sprint nor a GC day can be disregarded.

(why the Vuelta insists on this aspect ratio for all its maps, I don't know)

The stage starts from Roquetas de Mar, the current finish location of the early season sprinters' race Clasica de Almeria and a Vuelta stage finish in 2018 (mid-mountain, won by Simon Clarke) and 2002 (flat enough for everyone not named Ivan Quaranta, won by Mario Cipollini). Even Quaranta would have had a strong chance of contesting this stage if it was 30 kilometres shorter, though, as the vast majority of the stage follows the main road along the coast. It's only after the intermediate sprint that the route turns inland, and the road starts to rise shortly after. This run-in to the proper climb is categorised, and mirrors the profile below as far as the junction with the road to Almáchar.

From this junction, the main body of the climb starts. It's pretty steep, and the summit is just 15 mostly descending kilometres away from the finish line.

The final kilometres level out as the riders reach the finish town and the coast.

 

[triley36]

Cort from a small group? Or is the climb too much for him to get over? Matthews maybe? Or am I totally misreading the climb?

 

[ice&fire]

Technical descent alert!
This one is tailored for the Astana downhill commando. Shame that Fraile has been suffering from a crash induced shoulder pain that was limiting his grip strength. If he's not recovered they'll try with someone else to set it for Aranburu.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Cort from a small group? Or is the climb too much for him to get over? Matthews maybe? Or am I totally misreading the climb?

This is not an easy ascent, if the GC guys decide to race there only best climbers will be in the front group. The question is: will anyone try to surprise Roglic there?

 

[yaco]

Riders like Matthews and Cort need to be in the break.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah I think it's gonna be a heavy contested break, then the GC guys will have a little fight 15 minutes after the break.

 

[Monte Serra]

What about echelons? According to Wielerflits there will be a significant cross-tail wind (from the southeast) along the coast. Is the road exposed?

https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/vuelta-2021-renners-krijgen-hete-tweede-week-voor-de-kiezen/

 

[Red Rick]

What about echelons? According to Wielerflits there will be a significant cross-tail wind (from the southeast) along the coast. Is the road exposed?

https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/vuelta-2021-renners-krijgen-hete-tweede-week-voor-de-kiezen/

I doubt it. Windy basically only says good wind for the first 12km of the stage.

 

[hayneplane]

Could be interesting but breakaway looks most likely as I can’t see who will feel confident enough in their chances to invest a big team effort to control the stage.

 

[sir fly]

I doubt it. Windy basically only says good wind for the first 12km of the stage.

Exactly what baroudeurs need.

Finale worth of a classic.

 

[SafeBet]

Andrea
Bagioli
Please

 

[CyclistAbi]

Looks like a perfect route to stretch your legs after a rest day. As for possible outcomes. Just about anything is possible.

 

[RENS99]

Bagioli crashed on Sunday, unsure what the damage is though. Kron has marked this stage from the start, finish suits him very well. If not him, then the other Dane.

 

[Gigs_98]

Yeah it will be like @Red Rick wrote. Stage goes to the break, some gc riders have a little dig, but ultimately things stay together.

 

[perico]

Might be a good stage to surprise Roglic on the descent if he’s not familiar with it. Only problem is that the one rider with a higher propensity of crashing downhill is probably Superman himself.

 

[movingtarget]

Should be a decent sized break looking at that profile. The end of the stage could be fun.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Hopefully echelons and GC fighting for stage but probably break. I think Movistar, Ineos, and Bahrain should force the pace on the climb and make the descent interesting.

 

[search]

I'd say if it's selective, Roglic is the most likely to benefit from it and gain time. But well... yeah, may be worth a try - this week doesn't really offer any other opportunies anyway, and after the rest day, sometimes odd things happen

 

[glassmoon]

Yeah it will be like @Red Rick wrote. Stage goes to the break, some gc riders have a little dig, but ultimately things stay together.

At least 1 gc guy will lose time because of crash...

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

After a first glance at the profil I was pessimistic about GC action but given the (relatively) big gaps we saw on the 2km 9% final on stage 6 I'm not so sure anymore.
If I'm a GC contender and I feel good I'd definitely push for gaps there. The leadup to the final 5k of the climb are also perfect to have your team push hard.

Problem is, who has the legs as well as the confidence to go hard on the descent. Ineos haven't enjoyed the shorter punchier climbs at all so that rules them out. Pretty sure Roglic won't risk it on the descent. Movistar? Maybe but Lopez won't be any help on the descent so it's up to Mas if he feels it. Astana is out of the GC picture, they would've been perfect. Bahrain? Do they have good descenders?

 

[Rackham]

Ineos & Bahrain seem the most likely to drill it hard at the top of that category 2 climb. Movistar are down 2 men already & have 2 leaders, so that's only 4 domestiques with split duties in the team. Meanwhile Ineos have to take risks now so "if" there's going to be some action, I think it'll be from them.

 

[Lequack]

 

[Lequack]

Final climb, I doubt any sprinter is getting through it since it's so close to the finish

 

[Lequack]

Google translated from Twitter:
Sergeant @guardiacivil
Marian Santiago, this year 2021 says goodbye to the Safety device of the Cycling Tour of Spain In 2007 she made history by being the first female motorcyclist of the Traffic Group in @lavuelta

 

[gregrowlerson]

Cannot understand how Matthews is favourite to win this. Next to no chance to survive that climb.