Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2023, stage 11: Lerma - La Laguna Negra, 163.2k

[Moose McKnuckles]

Not to add to the negativity, but Spain, particularly in the Toledo area, is experiencing some terrible flooding. Greece is suffering as well. We've had some brutal floods here in the States too.
Anyway, back to your originally scheduled Remco bashing programme.

 

[Valv.Piti]

You can obviously always make the route slightly better here and there, but considering the route overall, I quite like this stage. Obviously hoped for a bit harder final climb, but who knows, with this situation I think Almeida will go 3-4 km from the top again and then what?

 

[Berniece]

So the last 6km at ~7%, we'll see if the GC will do anything about it, but there won't be any big changes. Maybe 10-20s difference, or nothing at all

 

[Sciatic]

In the steep last kilometer it’s possible we could see if anyone hasn’t recovered from a hard TT effort (á la Simon Yates in that Giro). Kuss probably has never had to do a climbing stage the day after a full-on TT. No big gaps, but some separation for a few of the top 8 or so.

 

[hfgon1]

Last 1.5km are pretty hard. Think there will be some differences between the gc-guys. Nothing decisive but nonetheless not to neglect.

 

[yaco]

Could someone like Groves or Ganna win this from a weakish breakaway - Groves has previously done well in this type of stage while the lowish gradients will suit Ganna.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

Ganna maybe, but he will probably recover and try to sprint in stage 12.
Groves no way.
The winner will probably be either a puncheur/climber like Gregoire or an all-rounder like Lazkano or Sobrero.
Or the Gc guys actually contest the stage

 

[search]

Could someone like Groves or Ganna win this from a weakish breakaway - Groves has previously done well in this type of stage while the lowish gradients will suit Ganna.

it's the kind of climb "sprinters" like Battaglin or Felline could win at from a breakaway in their good years, I think. But not sure Groves has those climbing abilities yet. Probably not.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Now 10 decisive stages wait for the riders.

Unipublic and UCI have reason to be happy: after great Giro and Tour, the current GC situation in this Vuelta makes us expect 10 wonderful remaining days. It couldn’t be more exciting.

Tomorrow’s stage: not too bad!… I prefer a unipuerto MTF of „only“ 600 vertical meters over any flat sprint stage. That is what makes the Vuelta great: seven to ten MTFs, every year. Something like three-week long, unofficial, World Championships for the climbers.

In other years, most top GC guys were on holidays already, at this time of the year. This year, they all except Pogacar fight for Vuelta GC. And the final GC winner will have the honour to challenge Pog in Lombardia. Perfect finale of an already great season 2023!…

 

[Red Lobster]

In other years, most top GC guys were on holidays already, at this time of the year. This year, they all except Pogacar fight for Vuelta GC. And the final GC winner will have the honour to challenge Pog in Lombardia. Perfect finale of an already great season 2023!…

Too bad an in-form Carapaz is not here.

 

[zlev11]

What else do you really want from this stage? A weak MTF seems just about right at this point in the race with stage 13 and 14 looming after the ITT.

The real tragedy is that stage 2 and 9 were not raced. As in literally not raced, apart from a select few riders that were not deemed important enough.

If the alternative is Geoffrey Soupe is winning after 4.30 hours of nothingness, then this is infinitely better.

i'd rather see a hilly stage with a descent finish that might have a chance of GC action (see stage 10, 2021).

 

[glassmoon]

almost as dumb as a flat stage...

 

[CyclistAbi]

It's not like GC contenders have much choice. Kuss is far ahead and teams like QOS and UAE must apply pressure. So likely that comes down to Rogla having to sprint on such stage. We'll see.

 

[JosefK]

Should be no worries from the real GC guys about Kuss, so maybe he gets in the break again.

 

[hfer07]

nah,
either a breakaway takes the stage win, or the GC guys will be sprinting out in the last 20 meters....

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Unipublic should release all the stages at once so we can binge watch them rather than waiting for like 3 weeks, ridiculous really

 

[Rob5091]

In keeping with the current trend of no more then 2 hard stages consecutively we have the usual easy stages after the TT and all the GC guys are waiting on stages 13 & 14. Sure, pick up some bonus seconds if there's a chance but no one will bust a gut.
Breakaway win.

 

[movingtarget]

Looks like a break stage otherwise the ski jumper wins.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I'm not expecting much here, but maybe Ayuso, Mas, or Soler can make some waves. In the end, I don't see much separation occurring between the main contenders.
However, given my piss-poor track record at predicting these things, this stage will probably throw the whole race upside down.

 

[yaco]

it's the kind of climb "sprinters" like Battaglin or Felline could win at from a breakaway in their good years, I think. But not sure Groves has those climbing abilities yet. Probably not.

Groves will probably wait for the stage 12 sprint - Don't forget I am discussing from the breakaway.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So between now and Madrid there are still 4 hard or very-hard mountain stages, one crazy middle-mountain stage and 2 small MTFs. That's a lot of climbing! We will see who can sustain the most w/kg to the end.

 

[jsem94]

Average Unipublic stage. Rogla vs Remco for bonus seconds?

 

[Lequack]

Sepp: "Why did I have to go in that breakaway..."

 

[Izzyeviel]

If he wanted the easy life, he'd have signed up to be GC G's key domestique. He'd have gone home by now.

 

[KZD]

With harder days coming ahead, I can't see any team chasing the breakaway so I think a large group could arrive. Kämna is the obvious choice but I would like to see either Bernal or Thomas in the breakaway as they are both out of the GC fight.

Among GC riders, I think UAE should attack with one of there riders in the last climb to try to claw back a few seconds or maybe Roglič or Remco try an attack in the last hundred meters.