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Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2023, stage 13: Formigal - Col du Tourmalet, 134.7k

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nightowl

nightowl

Feb 8, 2023
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Berniece said:
How? Vingegaard seems to be losing form (ITT and almost dropped), and Kuss has already shown some cracks uphill. I still think they’ll win the Vuelta, but it will be with Roglic and the podium won’t consist out of other JV riders.
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I’m not saying it’s a forgone conclusion or anything but all it would take is:

1) Vingo to be stronger than the other GC riders in the real big mountain stages - not that crazy
2) Kuss to hold on to the lead he has over other GC riders in said stages - not that crazy
3) Remco to be a bit weaker than Roglic in said stages - also not that crazy

Plus it just seems like the type of thing that that team would want to do
 
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Volderke

Volderke

Mar 29, 2012
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It's one thing to have a plan, it's another thing to pull it off.
There will always be one of the favourites dropping out of the lead group (very likely), or one of the favourites dropping all others (a bit less likely).

I am curious ...
if there will be a kind of masterful tactical sound plan by e.g. Jumbo or UAE;
if Ayuso does a downhill attack on Spandelles;
if Remco drops one of the Jumbo riders with a hard pace on Tourmalet;
if Vingegaard / Mas attack with 5K to go on Tourmalet;
if Kuss is still in the leader's jersey after the stage;
If Soler happens to be stronger than Kuss and on par with all others and becomes the outright favourite for the Vuelta;
if Roglic wins a GC lead group sprint on the Tourmalet.

Let the show begin!
 
Berniece

Berniece

Sep 12, 2022
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nightowl said:
I’m not saying it’s a forgone conclusion or anything but all it would take is:

1) Vingo to be stronger than the other GC riders in the real big mountain stages - not that crazy
2) Kuss to hold on to the lead he has over other GC riders in said stages - not that crazy
3) Remco to be a bit weaker than Roglic in said stages - also not that crazy

Plus it just seems like the type of thing that that team would want to do
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True, I just think your point 1 and 2 aren't going to be correct. But I could be wrong of course
 
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Volderke

Volderke

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witeken said:
The plan for Remco should be to get into red today -- attack and drop Kuss. If he doesn't/can't do it today, then when?
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That's easier said than done, and imho it's not the best idea to try and attack today, but rather e.g. on the Angliru.

If an attack today is succesful, Remco (or anyone else for that matter) will have to deal with defending the red jersey, but without a good team, and with Roglic and Vingegaard not being held back by defending Kuss' GC ambitions.

If the GC is more or less the same until the Angliru stage, that one is where it's everybody on his own, and if an attack works out well there, the leader 'only' has to defend the jersey for 2 more (admittedly) hard stages.

Today's stage is already hard on its own, and isnt'really the best stage for a lone attacker, especially against a team with strong domestiques still there. Only JV and UAE can control / dictate the race, others have to wait and see.
 
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Jagartrott

Jagartrott

Apr 15, 2014
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The one thing I expect, is for Vingegaard to be used by JV to be the first to 'go'. Depends whether they have teammates up the road where that is. Vingegaard may not be at his best, but his W/kg ability should still make him one of the 5 best climbers in this Vuelta. UAE is a wild card here, though rumours are that Ayuso has some physical issues. Soler may try but will likely fall back and lose time, Almeida may want to go himself rather than wait, since he deals poorly with big accelerations.
 
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I

ice&fire

Jul 1, 2015
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Red Rick said:
The timetable looks absurdly optimistic to me. The Hautacam stage last year was 4 hours, and thats despite the fact that it was raced absurdly hard and was only 7km longer
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Timetables in mountain stages are mostly useless. Even if they get the average speed right, the table is wrong because all times are calculated assuming that they ride the stage at constant velocity no matter if they're climbing or descending.
 
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Netserk

Netserk

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Apr 30, 2011
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Kelderman will nuke Tourmalet - again.

Afterwards, it's time for take-off:

GettyImages-1402481003.jpg


Kuss is left to wheelsuck Evenepoel.
 
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Valv.Piti

Valv.Piti

Aug 3, 2015
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Netserk said:
He almost sounds like @Libertine Seguros.
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Its weird, because Sepp is by far the the most outspoken rider in the world when it comes to climbs, stage designs etc. He knows his stuff and knows his climbs, especially in Spain, and doesn't fall of the chair just cause Tourmalet is named - a climb Libertine hates.

On the other hand, we have some absolute dumbasses who can't bother to actually look at the race they're riding, don't know what Angliru is and don't know it features in this year's race, have no clue about the stage they are riding tomorrow etc. Its a total joke to listen to some of these riders. You have to think about what life had in store for these poor souls if they weren't gifted athletically.

He's a pure climber who, when given the chance, rides an aggressive race. And yet, its Libertine absolute favorite rider to hate on. Makes you wonder!
 
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stekelegel

stekelegel

Jul 17, 2022
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JV will attack before tourmalet, how long will QS teammates last?
And who will attack, will they use one of the big three before Tourmalet?
And do Ayuso and Mas aim for 3d place or higher?
 
Volderke

Volderke

Mar 29, 2012
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Who says JV will attack before Tourmalet? They need people on the road in order to attack on Spandelles, if not, they risk only having GC riders left and no one to set the pace / control in the valley before Tourmalet (or having to sacrifice a rider).

IMO, JV will (if they don't get a strong rider in the break) use the team's strength until Tourmalet and attack uphill and hope their tridente has the best legs of the lot.
 
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Berniece

Berniece

Sep 12, 2022
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Volderke said:
Who says JV will attack before Tourmalet? They need people on the road in order to attack on Spandelles, if not, they risk only having GC riders left and no one to set the pace / control in the valley before Tourmalet (or having to sacrifice a rider).

IMO, JV will (if they don't get a strong rider in the break) use the team's strength until Tourmalet and attack uphill and hope their tridente has the best legs of the lot.
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Well they still got a lot of riders left. Why wouldn't they just sent Valtner/Tratnik and Van Baarle ahead? You still got one of Valtner/Tratnik, Kelderman and Gesink left. So enough riders to set something straight if necessary.

Let's say they wait until Tourmalet, and start by setting a high pace. Then you are basically riding SQS's race for them, because there's nothing Remco prefers more than a high steady pace.
 
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