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Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2023, stage 4: Andorra la Vella - Tarragona (184.6k)

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Doesn't look like a stacked sprinterfield to say the least. SQS doesn't want the leader jersey so today(stage 4) and tomorrow (stage 5)are probably good stages for SQS to let a break go. I don't think JV will ride for Roglic here just for potentially 10s and a crash.
 
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After the first showdown of one of the best climbing fields the Vuelta has ever seen, it's time for the first showdown of... well...

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Just like in 2017, stage 4 takes the riders from Andorra to Tarragona for a sprint opportunity. Both the run-in and the finish are a bit harder than on that stage, but given that this sprint field is full of climbier types it's hard to see many of them missing out here. The first 60 kilometres of the stage are a rerun of the route taken into Andorra in the opposite direction, before heading into new terrain by immediately taking on an uncategorised climb.
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As easy as that climb is, it's the most significant obstacle in the first two-thirds of the stage. The going gets a bit harder at just over 60k to go, but the climbing is at low gradients on both Alto de Belltall...
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...and Coll de Lilla, a regular feature in Volta a Catalunya. On its most recent outing, it came at 10k from the line in a stage where Valverde won the sprint of almost 100 riders, which should tell you all you need to know about how selective this climb is.
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From there, the route trends downhill all the way into Tarragona. The finish is in a different spot than in 2017, and both finishes are different from the 2013 stage. This time, they finish right outside the city walls, making for a more technical finale than we usually get in a Vuelta sprint stage. More importantly, the road actually ramps up pretty significantly towards the end. It probably isn't hard enough for any GC riders to get in the mix for bonus seconds, but you never know.
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Thank you so much for your great stage presentation(s) - they are just great! :) An extremely nice and kind gift, to us!… :)
 
could be tricky indeed, but normally they should be able to keep things close, and in the end Jumbo will likely take over.

This looks like a finish they prefer to approach from the front, at least, and Roglic may even have a shot to win (same as Evenepoel). I don't think it's much easier than the one in Catalunya, where they came 1st and 2nd.
On the other hand, it makes little sense to go for bonus seconds here if you didn't on Sunday.
 
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I doubt that GC guys will bother with this one. Staying on the bike will hence likely be the main priority. JV on top of that still has two leaders strategy and until that changes i doubt Roglič will be motivated to contest such sprints. For winning this race he knows he is already too far behind. To do it with bonus seconds and poor lead-outs. Maybe if Remco goes for it and Rogla utilizes that instead. Slim chance. We'll see.
 
I doubt that GC guys will bother with this one. Staying on the bike will hence likely be the main priority. JV on top of that still has two leaders strategy and until that changes i doubt Roglič will be motivated to contest such sprints. For winning this race he knows he is already too far behind. To do it with bonus seconds and poor lead-outs. Maybe if Remco goes for it and Rogla utilizes that instead. Slim chance. We'll see.

With this technical final all GC riders will want to be at the front anyways so there not really a reason to not botter in the last 600m.
 
So, what weird thing will happen this time?
After about 80km, Evenepoel will realise that he has left the charging cable for his earpods in his hotel room, for which he will blame ASO. In his new role as patron, he will insist that the peloton turn around and head back to Andorra, where the GC times will be taken, but no finishing positions. Riders will then have to make their own way to their hotels inTarragona, but the roads will by then be fully open to traffic. Several riders will get lost, and fail to reach the start for stage 5 because they either never reached Tarragona or arrived so late that they slept in.
 
Lotto, Trek, EF, DSM.
I think Trek and EF would be better off putting somebody in the break. Sean Quinn for instance could get the red jersey (and fight for the stage win).
DSM is a man down already and Milesi didn't look in great shape after his crash.

With the tailwind expected in the final part of the stage and the little amount of sprinters it's not unreasonable to think a breakaway will succeed.
 
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I think Trek and EF would be better off putting somebody in the break. Sean Quinn for instance could get the red jersey (and fight for the stage win).
DSM is a man down already and Milesi didn't look in great shape after his crash.

With the tailwind expected in the final part of the stage and the little amount of sprinters it's not unreasonable to think a breakaway will succeed.
EF has had red already, though, and the finish looks pretty much perfect for van den Berg. I'd think it makes more sense for them to go for a sprint.
 
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