Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2024, stage 16: Luanco - Lagos de Covadonga, 181.3k

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May 20, 2023
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This weather would be very reminiscent of the Lagos de Covadonga stage of 2021. On that day things got heated early on Collada Llomena, when Egan Bernal placed his iconic attack. In this peloton, only Carapaz has the balls to do something similar.
Hm... Didn't Roglic follow Bernal's attack and later on won that stage?
 
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Roglic didn't do well on these heavy stages, I expect Mas to try and attack. Apart from stage 20, this is his only chance to gap Roglic. Moncalvillo on stage 19 is the perfect Roglic stage, he'll probably get red after it.

Roglic from 2021 is quite different to this one, overall this stage doesn't suit him that good. With his back issues, he might struggle. I don't see a long-range attack of him, at best he will just join Mas/Carapaz/Landa if they go early. If he doesn't lose time to Mas it will be good for him. O'Connor would probably still be in red at the end of it.
 
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Covadonga!

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Jul 31, 2024
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Roglic didn't do well on these heavy stages, I expect Mas to try and attack. Apart from stage 20, this is his only chance to gap Roglic. Moncalvillo on stage 19 is the perfect Roglic stage, he'll probably get red after it.

Roglic from 2021 is quite different to this one, overall this stage doesn't suit him that good. With his back issues, he might struggle. I don't see a long-range attack of him, at best he will just join Mas/Carapaz/Landa if they go early. If he doesn't lose time to Mas it will be good for him. O'Connor would probably still be in red at the end of it.
Fully Agree. Buf if the first half of the stage is ridden easy, it might suit Roglic. So it depends. I think Movitar needs to force the pace if they want to crack him. Mas' only other chance is stage 20 as you pointed out.

Good thing is, Movistar isn't strong enough - I want to see Roglic win this thing :)
 
Movistar should try but with these up and downs the first 70km it's hard to control. I think stage 19 is probably their best bet to control.
But stage 19 is a Unipuerto with a tailor-made Roglic finish. They need a long, hard day to give Mas a better chance to distance Roglic. Today and stage 20 are really the only opportunities.
 
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