Vuelta al País Vasco 4–9 April 2016

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

No, I was justifying why you might think that Izagirre has more chance than contador. Izagirre could win the whole thing.

Sorry, I may not have been clear enough, I edited in your post to show why I think Izagirre is a bigger favorite, the last part was a reply to WheelofGear

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

If you don't expect too much its easier to cope with a potentially bad result. Never seen LF so moderate about Contador

What about the 2012 Vuelta, or during all of 2013, or pretty much every time Contador underpeformed

I joined the forum in 2015.

Point is, I see no reason to downplay Contador to this degree. He looked spectacular in P-N and Malhao and the route has never been more mountainous, really.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Point is, I see no reason to downplay Contador to this degree. He looked spectacular in P-N and Malhao and the route has never been more mountainous, really.

And he lost both races I'm sure he will put in a good performance, but I would not be surprised at all if someone managed to beat him here.
Normally the TT would be great for him but I actually think with this parcours, against these opponents a flat TT would be better for him

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Point is, I see no reason to downplay Contador to this degree. He looked spectacular in P-N and Malhao and the route has never been more mountainous, really.

And he lost both races I'm sure he will put in a good performance, but I would not be surprised at all if someone managed to beat him here.
Normally the TT would be great for him but I actually think with this parcours, against these opponents a flat TT would be better for him

He lost P-N, yes, but we all know who the strongest rider was in that case. Im sure you can agree with that. Aint no snow in the Basque country right now

And yes, a flat TT would definitely have been way better for Contador against this field.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Rating Contador lower than Izagirre is just pessimistic. You know that is illogical.

Contador is the main favorite but I know you're afraid that he gets his third 2nd place in a WT race this year.

Henao is really strong right now, he is obviously the main favorite. I can't see many opportunities for Contador to take much time on Izagirre and Izagirre can take time in the ITT.

Well so far Henao has nearly as many 2nd places as Contador.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

Well so far Henao has nearly as many 2nd places as Contador.

True, it's like GVA vs Sagan

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

He lost P-N, yes, but we all know who the strongest rider was in that case. Im sure you can agree with that. Aint no snow in the Basque country right now

Yes, but my point was that it shows that just being the biggest name/best climber doesn't automatically mean you win. I think the route suits Henao very well, better than Contador, and he has been extremely strong.

 

[AlexNYC]

I can't rate Henao as the main favorite for any race until he actually wins one. This route is perfect for him of course, but there is that pesky TT, which has always been his main weakness.

 

[Matteo.]

Re: Re:

If Henao will win , it means he was stronger than Alberto. The point is simple guys

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

If Henao will win , it means he was stronger than Alberto. The point is simple guys

Don't be silly, Bertie is the strongest rider in every race...If not he has a good handful of excuses at the ready

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

If Henao will win , it means he was stronger than Alberto. The point is simple guys

Yes and Alberto is always riding to win those spring races in close to 100% shape

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Likelihood of winning, IMO
Henao > Izagirre > Contador > Pinot > Quintana > others including Dan Martin, Aru, Costa

Now you're overestimating him a little bit. He will be good (top-5). but it's not like he's absolutely world class on steep muro's like we have on stage 2 or to the stage to Orio (Aia).

I rate Contador above Izagirre.

 

[blackmamba]

I expect a win from Contador here where my only concern in the weather and thus expecially on the TT where if its rain Alberto will take it more caotius than other riders as Henao and Izagirre.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

I think this will be a Henao vs Purito vs Quintana fight. Of course the route is not that great for Nairo, but he still won this race back in 2013. So he can do well here. And he's in better shape then last year.

I doubt about Contador. He looks a little bit at the end of his first peak. For sure he will finish top-5, and podium is possible too. But the victory? Don't know about that.

Contador is at his best, he did always 2 month at the befining of the year at the top. One year he was to Lieje, and there maybe he was a little bit post peak, but anyway in great shape.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Re:

Point is, I see no reason to downplay Contador to this degree. He looked spectacular in P-N and Malhao and the route has never been more mountainous, really.

And he lost both races I'm sure he will put in a good performance, but I would not be surprised at all if someone managed to beat him here.
Normally the TT would be great for him but I actually think with this parcours, against these opponents a flat TT would be better for him

He lost P-N, yes, but we all know who the strongest rider was in that case. Im sure you can agree with that. Aint no snow in the Basque country right now

And yes, a flat TT would definitely have been way better for Contador against this field.

He lost both races by seconds, it's not like he got blown out of the water. And yes, a flat ITT would work better for him, but the course suits him better than the other two. And Henao, I don't know...there's a ton of hype with these Colombians, they're like the soccer Brazilians of cycling...until Germany or Vino bludgeon them to death. I'm a bit tough here, but seriously: Betancur's thread has more following than any of the more accomplished riders, except Dawg and Bertie. Why? Is he the Neymar of cycling? No. Kaka? Maybe...

My bold predictions: 1. Bertie, 2. Nairito, 3. Purito, 4. Pinot, 5. Henao. So it shall be written, and so it shall be done .

 

[hfer07]

besides my Colombian compatriots & Contador, I'm looking forward to see Landa-which should be getting in some decent form with just a month away from Il Giro. Great race with a great competitors

 

[ILovecycling]

should be an interesting race,bring it on!
AC>Henao>Quintana>Izaguirre

 

[Txrt]

Heading to Markina soon to see them pre-race. Weather is not too cold but rainy at the moment; just little showers though, it will apparently respect the riders as no rain is previewed from 1 to 6 supposedly. No need to say that these predictions barely have any credibility here.

 

[inacion]

GC matchup Nairo Quintana > Sergio Henao @ 2.24?!!

 

[jens_attacks]

Re:

Heading to Markina soon to see them pre-race. Weather is not too cold but rainy at the moment; just little showers though, it will apparently respect the riders as no rain is previewed from 1 to 6 supposedly. No need to say that these predictions barely have any credibility here.

keep us informed and enjoy!

i still have no idea who will win this

 

[CheckMyPecs]

With Quintana sick, this race is Contador's to lose.

 

[Txrt]

Re: Re:

Heading to Markina soon to see them pre-race. Weather is not too cold but rainy at the moment; just little showers though, it will apparently respect the riders as no rain is previewed from 1 to 6 supposedly. No need to say that these predictions barely have any credibility here.

keep us informed and enjoy!

i still have no idea who will win this

If I had to bed, I'd say it will rain all throughout the race. Not a lot of rain but yeah, enough to make it uncomfortable.
I've just gome through the finish line, 200m from the last turn, 3 last kms are slightly downhill. They climb San Miguel, go down and there's barely any flat.

I would have Felline, Gerrans or Gallopin, but I don't believe their teams will be able to control with this terrain, weather, and without knowing for sure that the aforementioned will be with the best on the top.

It's really a difficult stage to predict I think and if you bet and guess who wins today you'll win a lot of money.

I'm now where it starts, which is Amets Txurrukas hometown, so I think it's safe to say he'll be on the breakaway today.

 

[Ruudz0r]

If it rains Wellens to win it with a late attack!

 

[Ruudz0r]

Ion and Gorka Izagirre both will not start so Movistar 2 riders down already (and 1 of their co leaders)

 

[Matteo.]

Re:

Ion and Gorka Izagirre both will not start so Movistar 2 riders down already (and 1 of their co leaders)

for many Ion was one of the favorites