Vuelta al País Vasco 4–9 April 2016

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

I guess the top 5 will be Izagirre, Henao, Contador, Quintana, Dan Martin but I don't know about the order.

What about Purito Flo?

I don't see him in top 5 but who knows

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

If he surely is stronger on Baranbio and Arrate, I think you are seriously underrating Quintana or severely overrating Ion Izaguirre. Quintana WON this race 3 years ago, at 23 years. He is a better rider at this point and comes fresh off a victory against your man in Catalunya. I know those aren't Catalunya-climbs, but Quintana can also get explosive.

Okay, fair enough. Chill.

 

[Red Rick]

Any uphill effort longer than 5/6 minutes should definitely favour Quintana over Izaguirre. The ones we're talking about are closer to 9

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

If he surely is stronger on Baranbio and Arrate, I think you are seriously underrating Quintana or severely overrating Ion Izaguirre. Quintana WON this race 3 years ago, at 23 years. He is a better rider at this point and comes fresh off a victory against your man in Catalunya. I know those aren't Catalunya-climbs, but Quintana can also get explosive.

Okay, fair enough. Chill.

Cool, fair enough. Chill.

 

[Matteo.]

I expected more by Purito at GP Indurain ,so i don't think he can fight for the victory on Garrataxtu. I think Henao will be the favorite

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I expected more by Purito at GP Indurain ,so i don't think he can fight for the victory on Garrataxtu. I think Henao will be the favorite

I think Contador is the favourite, behind him Henao and Quintana when the climbs aren't longer. If Malhao is any indication, he will win on Garrataxtu

 

[yaco]

Re:

Simon Yates was a better climb in the last km of the race away from victory. Think one of the brother's is ready for a win; I'll do with Adam after being screwed by snow in Italy.

Simon is the protected rider.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

I expected more by Purito at GP Indurain ,so i don't think he can fight for the victory on Garrataxtu. I think Henao will be the favorite

Yeah, Henao should be the favorite, maybe Martin can beat him though. I think Purito won't be too far off but Henao is in super shape.

 

[pink_jersey]

Relax guys. Henao will not win even in Garrataxtu. He will finish either 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Matteo.]

Re: Re:

I expected more by Purito at GP Indurain ,so i don't think he can fight for the victory on Garrataxtu. I think Henao will be the favorite

I think Contador is the favourite, behind him Henao and Quintana when the climbs aren't longer. If Malhao is any indication, he will win on Garrataxtu

I expected more by Purito at GP Indurain ,so i don't think he can fight for the victory on Garrataxtu. I think Henao will be the favorite

Yeah, Henao should be the favorite, maybe Martin can beat him though. I think Purito won't be too far off but Henao is in super shape.

All dependsn on how they approach the climb , especially the first 2kms. It seems too hard for Martin but if the pace will be slow he could survive and outsprinting everybody.
As for Purito: he doesn't seem in good shape but if all wait the last km('cause the slow pace) , he could try something.

Then , meh...i don't see Alberto as winner on that MTF. Surely i wrong , but he doesn't impressed me in Catalunya( i bet on a top3 anyway)

 

[WheelofGear]

Garrataxtu is too brutal for Martin. And he has never done anything special in the Itzulia. It's Contador vs. Henao.

Purito used to be unbeatable on such climbs but he is in horrible shape. One of the Yates brothers might win while the others are looking at each other.

 

[May0maniac]

If we really get bad weather Spilak could finish in the top 5, Romandie is one of his big goals and he finished 4th in 2014 and 2013.

 

[Miburo]

2 years ago people were saying Contador was on a decline in shape too and he crushed piti on the first stage. He can keep his shape for a month, look at '09.

Then again the competition is really strong here. Not sure who will win this, I hope Landa shows up at least but he might just perform like last year.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Then again the competition is really strong here. Not sure who will win this, I hope Landa shows up at least but he might just perform like last year.

Last year would be better than expected at this point for Landa

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

2 years ago people were saying Contador was on a decline in shape too and he crushed piti on the first stage. He can keep his shape for a month, look at '09.

Then again the competition is really strong here. Not sure who will win this, I hope Landa shows up at least but he might just perform like last year.

He is gonna win the ITT. Wait and see.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Tomorrow looks to be the easiest day, I doubt the GC-boys can shake each other up on the last climb. Surely someone will try tho. Hoping it will prove to be too difficult for Gerrans, Felline has a good opportunity before the fun of the last 5 stages start.

1. Contador
2. Henao
3. Quintana
4. Pinot
5. Rodriguez/Ion

 

[blackmamba]

Any news on the weather forecast for each day of the race?

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

Tomorrow looks to be the easiest day, I doubt the GC-boys can shake each other up on the last climb. Surely someone will try tho. Hoping it will prove to be too difficult for Gerrans, Felline has a good opportunity before the fun of the last 5 stages start.

Is Felline a better climber than Gerrans? Genuine question. Actually I think you are right, Gerrans has never come top 20 in two consecutive high mountain stages, one which included Finestre. I reckon in a flat sprint Felline is faster than Gerrans, uphill is a different story. Anyway, I hope Felline takes the first stage should it end in a sprint. The Lesaka stage I'm still trying to work out. I think the profile exaggerates the climbs, but I think they are still pretty steep.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Tomorrow looks to be the easiest day, I doubt the GC-boys can shake each other up on the last climb. Surely someone will try tho. Hoping it will prove to be too difficult for Gerrans, Felline has a good opportunity before the fun of the last 5 stages start.

Is Felline a better climber than Gerrans? Genuine question. Actually I think you are right, Gerrans has never come top 20 in two consecutive high mountain stages, one which included Finestre. I reckon in a flat sprint Felline is faster than Gerrans, uphill is a different story. Anyway, I hope Felline takes the first stage should it end in a sprint. The Lesaka stage I'm still trying to work out. I think the profile exaggerates the climbs, but I think they are still pretty steep.

Of the 3 last climbs, the 2 first are relatively gradual at about 7% and 4 kilometre. The last one is 2-3 (if I remember correctly, you can see it in the roadbook someone posted) and 8-9%. The stage to Orio is harder over Aia, but this is definitely nothing to sneeze it.

On Felline/Gerrans, I think Felline is the better climber yes. Mostly I just didn't Gerrans to win tho

 

[SafeBet]

Felline has a great recovery. He's an ok climber on a normal day, he's a very good climber after three weeks of tough racing.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Bet365 odds are up. Contador is the favourite which I agree with. If he can't win this race, or just place higher than Quintana, I don't see him having a real shot against Quintana and Dawg at the Tour. He really needs this one.

Contador 3.00
Quintana 4.50
Pinot 6.50
Henao 7.00
Rodriguez 9.00
Izaguirre 16.00
Aru 26

 

[blackmamba]

I agree the only thing im worried about is the weather forecast which im very curious about for each day!

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I agree the only thing im worried about is the weather forecast which im very curious about for each day!

Rodriguez said that the forecasts are bad weather, the specifics I don't know about, but it shouldn't really be that hard to find out

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

Then again the competition is really strong here. Not sure who will win this, I hope Landa shows up at least but he might just perform like last year.

Last year would be better than expected at this point for Landa

To be fair, last year Landa only had 1 race in his legs as well prior to Itzulia. He still won a stage. This time around he apparently still trained very powerful, never mind his illness before and after it.

Looking at the start list, Landa's got number 11 and apparently is the team leader!? Ain't Henao been supposed to be that originally? That's what Mikel himself stated in an interview lately.

So let's just give all hope we got that in fact he's hiding his shape big time in fact.

More seriously: Pinot was quite surprisingly good at Lombardia last fall. Based on his improvement so far. If he really confirms this here. Yeah. He's truly my main favorite. Really. I always like to gamble a bit with my predictions, pals. Maybe that's why.

 

[WheelofGear]

Re:

Bet365 odds are up. Contador is the favourite which I agree with. If he can't win this race, or just place higher than Quintana, I don't see him having a real shot against Quintana and Dawg at the Tour. He really needs this one.

Contador 3.00
Quintana 4.50
Pinot 6.50
Henao 7.00
Rodriguez 9.00
Izaguirre 16.00
Aru 26

The betters must be blind if they think Pinot will be better than Henao in this type of terrain. Winning Critérium International is not the same as winning here.