Vuelta al País Vasco 4–9 April 2016

[DFA123]

The climb to Garrastatxu has quite a few similarities to Cumbre del Sol - if the stage finish is as good as it was there, we are in for a treat.

Think Contador could take this; he's looking sharp and may just be able to get the jump on Quintana on one of the steeper bits. It's kind of the wrong way round for the likes of Purito, Martin and Henao, with a longer more gentle section towards the top. Not sure they will be able to hang on there after making the anaerobic effort to get clear on the lower, steeper parts.

 

[jonan92]

Just for your entertainment, here is the start of the last climb...

(yeah, it's the one in the right)

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Just for your entertainment, here is the start of the last climb...

(yeah, it's the one in the right)

The positioning will be crucial. I think it will be won by a small rider (Purito, Quintana or Henao).

 

[London Hibs]

FWIW - Edet to get in the breakaway to hoover up the early mountain points and Vuillermoz each-way at 18/1 is my prediction.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

The climb to Garrastatxu has quite a few similarities to Cumbre del Sol - if the stage finish is as good as it was there, we are in for a treat.

Think Contador could take this; he's looking sharp and may just be able to get the jump on Quintana on one of the steeper bits. It's kind of the wrong way round for the likes of Purito, Martin and Henao, with a longer more gentle section towards the top. Not sure they will be able to hang on there after making the anaerobic effort to get clear on the lower, steeper parts.

That stage was quite different, flat stage in the seaside with wind and hot, so it was a stage for complete riders. Today is quite hilly, they have north wind that will afect them a little at the middle of the stage, but climbers will be quite comfortable all the day.

The aproach to the last climb is no so flat as well.

Cumbre del sol is longer and more windy, and today is a narrow road, but yes, it is quite similar.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Just for your entertainment, here is the start of the last climb...

(yeah, it's the one in the right)

They came to the other side, so it is a hard corner. It will be very important to be well positioned there. Hard work for the teams. Contador has Kreuziger for that kind of things.

 

[Txrt]

Seems like we'll have good weather for the finish today too; at least where I am.

I saw some videos of earlier this morning of the climb, just click in this link and you'll have them there. Those images are from 9.30 this morning, so weather might be completely different right now.

http://cadenaser.com/emisora/2016/04/05/radio_bilbao/1459845608_949627.html

 

[Taxus4a]

This is kruzeta climb:

http://www.cronoescalada.com/index.php/puertos/view/865

My friend Mikelarri who wroted here sometimes use to climb that and he has climbed it with hi friend Landa. It is a quite hard climb, much harder tan other second categorized climbs in Pais Vasco. I did it by car once, and it is just later another climb. If the break is not settled down already (I doubt that), quality people could get the break there.

 

[Velolover2]

Contador to attack from the buttom?

Only him can do it but you can easily blow up.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Seems like we'll have good weather for the finish today too; at least where I am.

I saw some videos of earlier this morning of the climb, just click in this link and you'll have them there. Those images are from 9.30 this morning, so weather might be completely different right now.

http://cadenaser.com/emisora/2016/04/05/radio_bilbao/1459845608_949627.html

it is not going to rain after 3 o clock for sure in Amurrio...
Are you at the start?
Can you say something, It was raining at the start?

Peloton divided in 2 at the first climb...

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

The climb to Garrastatxu has quite a few similarities to Cumbre del Sol - if the stage finish is as good as it was there, we are in for a treat.

Think Contador could take this; he's looking sharp and may just be able to get the jump on Quintana on one of the steeper bits. It's kind of the wrong way round for the likes of Purito, Martin and Henao, with a longer more gentle section towards the top. Not sure they will be able to hang on there after making the anaerobic effort to get clear on the lower, steeper parts.

As far as I know, Martin is better at 6-9% gradients. He will just try to survive on the lower slopes. For the 10%+, it's Henao and Purito. And none of those guys will attack from the buttom of the climb. They rely on their fast finish.

Or maybe Henao will. He always attacks.

 

[Txrt]

Re: Re:

Seems like we'll have good weather for the finish today too; at least where I am.

I saw some videos of earlier this morning of the climb, just click in this link and you'll have them there. Those images are from 9.30 this morning, so weather might be completely different right now.

http://cadenaser.com/emisora/2016/04/05/radio_bilbao/1459845608_949627.html

it is not going to rain after 3 o clock for sure in Amurrio...
Are you at the start?
Can you say something, It was raining at the start?

No, I wasn't at the start today; had to go to university. At the time of the start it probably wasn't raining, but the roads in Bizkaia are wet for sure, 100%. From 8 to 12 it has been raining, not too heavily but still rain.

I'm getting home in about an hour or something more, and straight away lunch in front of ETB from as soon as they start broadcasting.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re: Re:

Just for your entertainment, here is the start of the last climb...

(yeah, it's the one in the right)

They came to the other side, so it is a hard corner. It will be very important to be well positioned there. Hard work for the teams. Contador has Kreuziger for that kind of things.

I was wrong, thay go by thi side. Thay pass for that point 2 times.


There is no break in the first climb:

http://www.itzulia.eus/en/2016/2/live/

 

[Valv.Piti]

Taxus how high do you think Landa will place?

 

[Txrt]

Re:

Taxus how high do you think Landa will place?

I know it's not for me, but I'm pretty optimistic about him. I think he'll be in the Top 15.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Just for your entertainment, here is the start of the last climb...

(yeah, it's the one in the right)

Those are the things I love about cycling

Henao ftw probably

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Taxus how high do you think Landa will place?

Not for me, but he could win it if he attacks from the buttom.

Otherwise, top 10. I still can't find 10 riders who should be better. Even if he isn't in 100% shape.

 

[Kazistuta]

If Landa isn't at 100 %, it should be easy to find 10 guys with better potential considering the field lined up...

Jrod, (Spilak), Henao, Moreno, Yates (x2 perhaps), Contador, Woods, (Latour - will be interesting to follow),Pinot, Costa, Mollema, Aru, Superman Lopez, Gesink, (Kelderman) and maybe even Navarro. Landa is a big IF, so if he's only at 80 %, I'd say he's gotta hope to land a top20.

 

[del1962]

This is Landa's home stage

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

The climb to Garrastatxu has quite a few similarities to Cumbre del Sol - if the stage finish is as good as it was there, we are in for a treat.

Think Contador could take this; he's looking sharp and may just be able to get the jump on Quintana on one of the steeper bits. It's kind of the wrong way round for the likes of Purito, Martin and Henao, with a longer more gentle section towards the top. Not sure they will be able to hang on there after making the anaerobic effort to get clear on the lower, steeper parts.

As far as I know, Martin is better at 6-9% gradients. He will just try to survive on the lower slopes. For the 10%+, it's Henao and Purito. And none of those guys will attack from the buttom of the climb. They rely on their fast finish.

Or maybe Henao will. He always attacks.

Yeah, Heano surely will try to go early. I think Purito will suffer because if he attacks on the steep slopes, he'll still have to hang on for 1-1.5km where it knocks back to below 10%. On top form he could do it, but right now I'm not sure.

Think it could be like on Cumbre del Sol, where some riders try to attack and burst clear on the steep bits, but the riders who actually pace their efforts relatively evenly up the entire climb will end up doing the best.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

If Landa isn't at 100 %, it should be easy to find 10 guys with better potential considering the field lined up...

Jrod, (Spilak), Henao, Moreno, Yates (x2 perhaps), Contador, Woods, (Latour - will be interesting to follow),Pinot, Costa, Mollema, Aru, Superman Lopez, Gesink, (Kelderman) and maybe even Navarro. Landa is a big IF, so if he's only at 80 %, I'd say he's gotta hope to land a top20.

Yes, that is, but as we said today all his friend will be at the climb, and the course even do a lap in his municipality around his town.

But normal situation is GC riders well placed at the botton... (difficult that for Landa) and very high pace till the end with important attacks of GC riders 2 km away from the finish...If there is a stop we will see.

But as I said, Landa could be even well placed and attack from the botton, he has nothing to lose today and that even help Henao. And he has the quality to win that way.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Denifl and Madrazo are leading the race on the road right now. Meintjes was dropped by this duo a few minutes ago.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Their gap is 4'20" with just over 100 km to go.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

If Landa isn't at 100 %, it should be easy to find 10 guys with better potential considering the field lined up...

Jrod, (Spilak), Henao, Moreno, Yates (x2 perhaps), Contador, Woods, (Latour - will be interesting to follow),Pinot, Costa, Mollema, Aru, Superman Lopez, Gesink, (Kelderman) and maybe even Navarro. Landa is a big IF, so if he's only at 80 %, I'd say he's gotta hope to land a top20.

On these short, steep climbs, I think they are going for Vuillermoz instead of Latour.

I personally think that even at 85%, Landa can still beat non-winners (sorry to my Dutch friends) like Gesink and Mollema.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

I personally think that even at 85%, Landa can still beat non-winners (sorry to my Dutch friends) like Gesink and Mollema.

Watching Gesink being dropped like a stone by Navarro yesterday was shocking. Navarro ain't half bad, but someone like Robert shouldn't be left in the dust by him.