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Vuelta a España Vuelta España 2023 stage 10, Valladolid - Valladolid 25.6km ITT

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Think Vingegaard was flying too early in the season, El Perro was bad early in 2017 and rode himself slowly into form.

Problem is he couldn't really risk being 90% against Pogacar in the tour.
Vingegaard force is the latter half of these Grand Tours.. that has been the norm all the years in Tour de France where he has been the best both in.. 2021, 2022, and 2023.

The problem in 2021 was that he came on J. Visma's latest spot, and last man to get a spot to TdF for J.Vista, and was a clear helper for Roglich and GC was not a priority, he was the help.
Vingegaard was like more than +5½ minutes after Pogacar after just stage 9 in TdF2021.. it was first after Roglic folded, that Jumbo Vista suddenly looked for alternatives and reprioritised Vingegaard as a GC contender, and in the 3 week of 2021TdF he did seem stronger than even Pogacar and also managed to place him, but was so far 5.42min behind that it was more or less clueless to attempt...
In Paris Pogacar was 5.20min ahead to nr 2 Vingegaard..

and the same picture in 2022 and 2023 TdF.. its the third week that Vingegaard tends to accelerate vs competitors.
Vingegaard's problem can be that it is a teammate who still got the jersey at the most critical mountainstages, where he is feeling solid, and that scenario can perhaps undermine the incentive to attack.
 
Vingegaard force is the latter half of these Grand Tours.. that has been the norm all the years in Tour de France where he has been the best both in.. 2021, 2022, and 2023.

The problem in 2021 was that he came on J. Visma's latest spot, and last man to get a spot to TdF for J.Vista, and was a clear helper for Roglich and GC was not a priority, he was the help.
Vingegaard was like more than +5½ minutes after Pogacar after just stage 9 in TdF2021.. it was first after Roglic folded, that Jumbo Vista suddenly looked for alternatives and reprioritised Vingegaard as a GC contender, and in the 3 week of 2021TdF he did seem stronger than even Pogacar and also managed to place him, but was so far 5.42min behind that it was more or less clueless to attempt...
In Paris Pogacar was 5.20min ahead to nr 2 Vingegaard..

and the same picture in 2022 and 2023 TdF.. its the third week that Vingegaard tends to accelerate vs competitors.
Vingegaard's problem can be that it is a teammate who still got the jersey at the most critical mountainstages, where he is feeling solid, and that scenario can perhaps undermine the incentive to attack.
That may be true, but it may that it’s week 2 (including today’s TT) of this Vuelta that will make the biggest impact on the final GC.
 
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It's a pity that there are no perfect stages to see some cat-and-mousing from the teams with these standings.

Tomorrow: Unipuerto, probably break or Jumbo controls for Roglic (tbh I don't see it with the rest of the week ahead)

Thursday: sprint stage

Friday: Could a mad dash to the start of the Aubisque from there it could get already really crazy or a waiting game. Could be in my eyes too hard as a stage to but of course it could be also the Granon-Stage of the vuelta.

Saturday: Flat start could be too controlable and then immediately too hard.

Would love too see stage 18 or 20 tomorrow as they could have real chaos potential.

I fear that those killer stages on the weekend will make quick work with the GC in this race as Jumbo could just dominate them. Would love to see them on the backfoot for once...e.g. having to ride behind a big break without one of their three leaders. From Vlasov downwards (+Martinez) everyone should be interested in going for a break but it seems unlikely that a break would go without a UAR or Jumbo leader.

Carthy and Cian could be real interesting riders to. pop up again on the GC because Jumbo and UAE stared each other down and Remco staying put. A bit like Gall in the Tour.
 
Kuss rode the Tour as a domestique. He could switch on and off. As the team leader Vingegaard couldn't do that. Soler has been a surprise so far.
Kuss was still 6th in Tour GC after 16 stages and he only dropped out of top 10 GC because the late crash. He was actually not really sitting up on any mountain stage and he didn't lose any time in easier stages, so I'm not sure actually if he did switch on and off.

I'm extremely impressed by Kuss today. I think we have to consider him a serious threat now.

Remco good, but not good enough. Even if we remove the likely gain Ganna had from passing 3 extra riders he would still probably beat Remco with like 5 seconds.

Roglic very good. Almeida good. Ayoso and Mas not too bad.

It's very interesting with Vingegaard. Clearly not at his best, but he's still not far away and his form is still decent, so I think he might go for a long attack, maybe at Spandelles, maybe at Larrau.

Jumbo have the red and still 3 candidates for the win. There will be a lot on pressure on QuickStep.
 
That may be true, but it may that it’s week 2 (including today’s TT) of this Vuelta that will make the biggest impact on the final GC.
Stages 13, 14, 17, and 18 are gonna rock & rolla the GC ;) (hopefully)

We are entering the latter half now and hopefully, we will see some huge GC battles on the big stages and GC riders cracking left & right while attacks are unfolding, as the last thing I wanna see is parading in a Grand Tour on the big potent mountain stages..
entertaining racing, give me that,.. we still have the real mountain stages ahead, and in general "who has the most stamina for a Grand Tour".. I would say Vingegaard, and second Pogacar, third Roglic, and fourth, likely Evenepoel, as he does hold spot 3 on UCIs stage race world ranking with 3425 points, Roglich2 (3519), Vingegaard1 (4672) -

but there are so many factors that can change things, but no doubt that Vingegaard's big force is usually in the latter half of these big grand tours.. as we saw in 2021, 2022, 2023.
 
Roglic lost time to Almeida after T1. Jumbo ***ed up today, far too positive a split for both him and an already-disappointing Vingegaard.
Disapppoiting vingegaard? The guys has a tour de france in his legs, and he is just 1 min 13 s of difference to remco evenepoel, with the hard mountains to come. He's not bad, in this hard context for him.
 
Don't see how today can be anything other than a massvie win for Jumbo. Kuss is still a threat, and a bigger one that anyone thought, and Roglic is basically within one succesful attack or just some mountain sprints from Evenepoel. Evenepoel IMO needed a massive ITT and this wasn't that. Before this ITT I was thinking Roglic should lose under 40s because I wasn't sure about the Jumbo ITT setup versus Roglic' great form. Vingegaards ITT is a lot like the Dauphine last year, he can do bad flat ITTs and still do very well in the mountains. Ayusos ITT was bad, I don't see how you can reconcile the idea of treating him like a favorite and not seeing this TT like a big loss. Almeida I didn't believe in for the Giro and I don't believe in Almeida now. Soler I believe even less.

I really think Roglic is in the drivers seat here.
 
My not-so-hot takes:
* Evenepoel was a bit disappointed, as any champion should be, but he still rode a good TT; Ganna was just very good and took some serious risks as well
* This was probably Roglic' best flat TT ever; he is clearly in very good shape, and probably better than during the Giro or the Vuelta last year; he is my main pick to win the Vuelta, if he can stay upright
* Vingegaard is here mostly as a luxury mountain domestique from now on; I don't see any reason why he would improve in the course of this GT
* Kuss did a very good TT, but since he looked a bit weaker than the main contenders in the mountains, and since this is his third GT this year, I think it is probable he will ship time in the mountains and he may have a bad day where he finishes minutes down on the rest. Good seeing him in red though, happy for him.
* Interesting choices need to be made by UAE and JV both: who will help, who will attack, who is the real leader?
* The biggest question for me is how Evenepoel will perform in the remaining mountain stages. Will he fade, crack, hang on, or will he actually get better? We know surprisingly little about his abilities in this regard.
 
Vingegaard 48 sec to Roglic, and 1.13m to Evenepoel.
and this is a guy that tends to just elevate his form the longer a grand tour gets.
We have 13, 14, 17, and 18 in the cards... all big stages that can mess things up quite well.

When a dude can crack Pogacar just 1½ months ago and land 7½ minutes on just two stages on Tadej Pogsacar (TT-16, and stage17) I reckon he could also manage to take 48 sec on Roglic and 1.12 on Evenepoel on 4 big mountain stages.

I still miss seeing Vingegaard crack in the latter half of a GT... both Roglic and Evenepoel.. certainly have more of a tendency to fold.
but it is Vuelta, and Vingegaard got his main big 2023 goal.
Taking top-spot on both Tour de France and Vuelta in one summer, aint easy when its Pogacar, Roglic, Evenepoel you have two beat, and none of these are following your footsteps with a tight TdF and Vuelta..
 
  • Happy to see Ganna back on top in a TT :)
  • Kuss obviously went all in - he is flying and will be interesting in the mountains.
  • Glad to see Roglic assume leader at Jumbo. Solid result, he is my pick now with an incredible team behind him, including the TdF champ.
  • Also glad Remco is back in the mix on a course which should have suited him. He has 36 seconds in hand ahead of Roglic on GC. I think he should climb better than last year but not sure that would be enough against this field? If he surprises I would happy for him.
  • A little surprised that Vingegaard lost over a minute to Remco. But we all know he has the Tour in his legs and isn't at his best for another week ;)
  • UAE had three riders in the top 8!
 
When a dude can crack Pogacar just 1½ months ago and land 7½ minutes on just two stages on Tadej Pogsacar (TT-16, and stage17) I reckon he could also manage to take 48 sec on Roglic and 1.12 on Evenepoel on 4 big mountain stages.
Vingegaard isn't going to be able to repeat his Tour level here. That should be obvious now after losing quite a bit of time on such a short course.